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Nine year 2P average FCF forecast $279m. Assumes: nothing from Niger; oil at about $70/bbl; no workovers on Chad; no new custom in Nigeria (I believe, please correct me if wrong).
So with market cap currently at $591m we trade at 2.1 times projected average FCF over nine years....based on the most conservative of assumptions. I’m beginning to think I must be thick because I can’t understand why this isn’t already significantly higher. I don’t see how C-C doesn’t happen at this stage (look at TIL’s helpful post today). Exxon are all packed up and gone.
Me and a couple of pals hold rather a lot of these...
Thanks, Tier: it was kind of you to share it.
...(and notwithstanding the kind post someone made the other day on a couple of these points and which now seems to have mysteriously disappeared) I’d love an RNS update on:
1. What’s going on Niger and the status of the pipeline that links us up with the tube to Zinder
2. The saga of the Accugas debt restructuring (clearly has been more fraught than first envisaged)
3. New CFO anyone? Status of legal proceedings with the last one. Perhaps no appointee until legal proceedings concluded.
4. When can we expect revenues for CC to get booked (if it’s in the interims, I assume we get 18 months’ worth of action, if it’s in the FY22 finals, surely it’s two years’ worth)
5. Nigeria revenue and cash collections update
6. Any view on exporting gas from Kwa Ibom to Rotterdam to help to rescue the short-sighted Europeans who thought Pootie-Poots wasn’t a psychopath.
Of course there’s loads of other stuff.
And of course I’m being unreasonably impatient; management and employees are juggling so much here.
I just wanted to inject a bit of enthusiasm on the BB; I know there’re a pile of SAVE fans out there. This is easily my biggest position.
I continue to believe that a bargain is hiding in plain sight.
Best wishes
CYB
Similar for me, MG; I imagine there’s quite a group of us here. My big takeaway from my BMN investment is to buy in to the maths as well as the story; this was too much the latter for me at my entry price. I still think I’ll end up realising a profit when the full business expansion and Belco reach fruition. But I must admit I made a mistake with my analysis when I bought. I’ll probably get stick for this (so be it), but I suspect many others on this board will be in the same boat.
If you want to buy on the basis of the maths, SAVE (my biggest position) looks rather attractive still. Shameless plug. DYOR of course.
I continue to hold here.
Ok, I admit it: I really don’t understand what has caused the sharp pullback in the last three weeks. If anything, I’d have expected the opposite given the murderous scumbag in Moscow. Can anyone kindly assist? I’d be most grateful.
SAVE is going to do an SLP.
DYOR, of course.
Fair enough, Pdub. I guess I’m concerned that financial engineering and complex structuring is distracting mgmt from the core activity. It’s always been a suspicion of mine here, but may be unfounded...
Hi Fortune
Patience is wearing a bit thin for me. I thought I’d invested in a company that dug up high-grade Rock and refined it into vanadium products; a company which was trying to build scale, drive down cost and move in to the VRFB space with the electrolyte plant in East London and engagement on the same with top levels in the SA government.
I’d like an update on all that, please and guidance on production and cost of production.
I am a bit over all the Mustang stuff on Euro-Reversible Donald Trump Trouser Bonds. Where’s the big picture update?
Thanks
(cue bulletin board abuse...)
The thing about SAVE is, we know the oil/gas is there in Nigeria and Chad. Even in Niger, the explo is super positive and we’ve only scratched the surface. And the hedge for lower prices is the midstream stuff. Sure, there are risks, but we also have some mitigants here by being geographically diversified (I’m assuming C-C completes, of course).
So many smaller oilers are all about a few drills...which often end up being all mouth and no trousers.
I have added to my SAVE position again this week. I’m honestly very surprised that the price isn’t already significantly higher.
Best wishes, everyone.
Totally agree, Agadem. Keyman risk is one of SAVE's biggest risks: possibly *the* biggest risk. There may well be fantastic and inexpensive opportunities in region, but there is also the risk of overreach and loss of focus. For instance, I am a little nervous on the proposal of a renewables purchase.
Also, having a very hands-on CFO who can manage the banks, key counterparts and key strategic investors is essential. The appointment should really help take the weight off AK. It'll be interesting to see if Nick Beattie gets the role or not.
Steve Jenkins and the NEDs should be guiding on these issues.
It's easy for us all as PIs to sit at our desks and do excel models or talk about Price to FCF ratios or adding another big ticket, but the team are clearly working flat out on complex deals in difficult geographies. At some point, people need to come up for air, take a break and take stock - we're all human.
I know this post isn't analytical in the same way the great posts are from a number of you on here, but I think it is still extremely important.
Have a peaceful weekend, everyone.
Encouraging read for long-term holders...
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/971367/hydrogen-remains-a-long-term-investment-opportunity-says-jpmorgan-971367.html
I thought it was worth reminding ourselves that at current oil prices, SAVE is trading at about 1.5 times free cash flow (next nine years projections) based on Andrew Knott’s 31 December presentation. Oh, by the way, he described the production forecasts as the “rubbish” scenario (if I heard him correctly).
This time next year, Rodney...
Thanks for confirming, PSB: apologies for my earlier misleading post. I still believe there’s someone knocking out shares fairly aggressively, mind.
Actually, I think I’m wrong, sorry. The VR disclosure appears to be them crossing the 5% threshold because of dilution.
Please ignore my earlier post.
(Nevermind)
The RNS this afternoon appears to confirm my theory.
All the best
I strongly suspect (from watching the volumes since relisting) that one party has sold out at least 1% or more of stock. Evidence being continuous big (relatively), round-number tickets at or around market-mid during the day and then hefty tickets reported at or after the close most days. Looks like someone is working out a position and, of course, there may be more to come. Morningstar disclosures may shed some light in coming weeks.
I may be wrong (often am, I bought BMN after all), but it matters not. What really matters are the results and progress.
In the meantime you could tell your pals to get in. As Kurt once said “load up on guns and bring your friends...”
Good morning.
Blimey, and I thought yesterday morning’s volume was low...
Thanks, Streets!
I meant Investment Manager, though we could insert all kinds of acronyms and euphemisms...
Morning all.
A wild frenzy of trading today; 241,000 shares traded in the first hour.
So we’re all positioned....
Slightly nerdily, I’ve noted that those 50, 100, 200k tickets at or around the mid keep getting filled since we relisted. I usually roll my eyes when someone on one of these boards starts banging on about “waiting for the big seller to clear”, but it does appear that one party may be offloading a few million. It’s no big deal if you’ve bought here for long-term value; and it’s pretty foolish if you haven’t, frankly.
So all that remains is to sit back and await: (1) ops news and financial updates (we all know the many possible strands); (2) a discretionary IM having a decent punt; (3) a tip in the financial press that brings in more PIs; and (4) Malcy or maybe the excellent Matt Gordon at Crux doing a really top-notch YouTube interview. Hopefully things stay relatively peaceful in our countries of interest, of course.
I’ll be looking regularly but, if I had any sense, I’d just take a glance this time next year.
All the best