Member Info for cautionyourblast

And Rh back over USD5,000. A bit of SP support from that after the Q1s if it really looks like the bottom is in.

Thanks for your insights and solid analysis, Bangrak.

Q4 net profit was just over USD3m on a higher basket price. Given operational gearing (for instance comparing Q4 net profit to Q3 given the basket price change), I am pretty bearish on forward PE assuming the basket stays at these levels. This is because I see Q1 net profit struggling to break even. I'd see a price drop to perhaps under 60p as the market wakes up to the real results for Q1. Cash reserves are great of course, but this share has always traded on very modest multiples.

The current share price presents a generous exit point, IMHO. I waited too long before executing my own.

DYOR, everyone.

Agreed, Rocky. Cash received for delivered (or to-be-delivered) oil and gas is all that really counts.

If anyone spots any articles concerning Naira liquidity (or otherwise) in a post-dollar-peg world, I'd be grateful if they'd post. It would be good to see if any corporates are getting Naira away spot, in size.

Enjoy beautiful Valencia: I'd live in Spain if it weren't for the taxes and the socialism.

Https://aecweek.com/unlocking-gabons-sustainable-oil-and-gas-future-minister-marcel-abeke-to-discuss-investments-into-gabons-oil-and-gas-sector-at-aew-2023/

Https://matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management/

Do the custom date selection for 12 months. Then graph up Rh, Pt and Pd.

Then have a read of the latest (excellent) Matthey analysis.

Punk is coming...

Hi, Rocky

I think the expectation was that the removal of the peg would result in a liquid currency. This would have allowed management to switch the majority of the Naira spot into dollars and pay down a decent chunk of the debt. The result would have been less fx exposure (obviously) but also a more modest interest expenditure burden. We'd have continued paying down aggressively as the Migerian customers paid on the contracts.

However, it appears that despite the significant devaluation, Naira remains illiquid and off-loading spot in size (for anybody) isn't really happening. The ongoing difficulties in restructuring the debt would appear to back this up. The local banks don't want the Naira either, it would seem.

After the huge devaluation when the peg was removed, Naira appears to have stabilised. Maybe someone more familiar with Nigerian domestic business can advise if that is expected to remain the case. Is central bank intervention keeping it there?

I remain skeptical on the ability to secure the debt restructuring.

The company is not managing well at all its messaging to the investor base. Instit-to-board member conversations must be quite frank here.

Nick Beattie: where are you?

I did suggest some time back that the interims would be ugly and the fx hit and interest burden would be significant. Annoyingly, this seems to have been correct.

I have particular concerns over the Going Concern paragraphs of note 2. The penultimate paragraph (extract below) is worrying and, to be honest, I didn't fully understand it.

"A detailed credit-approved term sheet has been executed with lenders for a new Naira denominated debt facility (the "Transitional Facility"). Whilst the process continues apace, Accugas did not have a long-dated extension for the refinancing process at the reporting date beyond the period of the going concern review. As such the balance outstanding of the Accugas US$ Facility continues to be reflected within current borrowings until the Transitional Facility is in place...."

I think liquidity to offload NGN is just pretty much non-existent for big tickets, even after the peg removal. And we're getting paid in NGN for our USD receivables.

Thank you for providing the update, Ed. Do you have any sense of what may be the next move from the South Sudanese here?

Https://www.datanyze.com/companies/caltech-trading/355852590

Blimey.

Bit of background...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puot_Kang_Chol

https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/opinion-the-looming-collapse-of-peace-in-south-sudan

Obviously the opinion piece is one-sided but, together with the Wikipedia biography, it does tell us that Kiir and Kang Chol appear to be on different sides of the political table.

The ministry of foreign affairs website still shows the guy who was recently fired (Deng Dau Deng) as acting head. So we have new broom at MOFAIC (James Pitia Morgan since end of August) and Finance (Barnaba Baak Chol since 3 August) as well. I wonder where Puot Kang Chol, the eloquent minister for petroleum, is in all this. Btw, the central bank head was recently changed too.

Apparently, Kiir wants elections on schedule: https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/kiir-says-polls-to-be-held-on-schedule-4377898

This is all looking like an SS internal squabble. Savannah will need to RNS something, I think; though goodness knows what they can say. I imagine they'll wait until Friday when perhaps they'll have figured out t least some of what's going on. The chances of securing these assets now looks far more remote to me: I'll be delighted to be proven wrong (at a sensible price, of course).

I agree, komakino. "rum do" doesn't begin to do it justice.

What a rum do.

It's on the SS Ministry of Foreign Affairs website here:

https://mofaic.gov.ss/south-sudan-concludes-multi-billion-oil-sector-invement-deal-with-us-firm/

I agree with you cjg.

The potential big impact now with be the reaction of the Instits when Savannah relists. After the immediate issues of dealing with this apparent deal failure, the relationship with Instits will be the company's immediate focus.

The corporate strategy is going to be questioned. The share price will get hit and will likely be volatile. I remain of the view that the interims will be ugly and that will not help the SP or the messaging.

The worst thing the company can do now is go to ground and fail to clearly and effectively re-engage with the shareholder base. It's a tough position, but I remain supportive of the management team.

Thank you, J.D.!

Https://twitter.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1704075449171669409

I'm probably reading *far* too much into the tea leaves here, but this seems rather a late stage to be announced as a speaker and sponsor for this Cape Town gig. It may suggest that Savannah has recently secured something material and this forum is the place to announce it. That would be rather nice.

Is anyone heading down south for this?

Https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66837026

Hope they've got a DR plan...

Thanks, komakino: that is good news!

I am still of the view that Savannah will resort to Mareva injunctions to seize vessels and thus secure funds in the event that the ICC rules in its favour.

Good morning!

Https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/joint-operating-companies-to-maintain-ownership-of-oil-industry/348

I suspect the release of this Savannah nugget may deliberately coincide with the headline article above (which appears to be similar to the Bloomberg story that affc kindly forwarded yesterday).

Close to the edge? Well, we get interims in two weeks if nothing else.