Member Info for cautionyourblast

While we await news, in no particular order, here is my (highly-entitled and presumptuous) wishlist for Savannah’s achievements over the next twelve months and its position a year from now. Some are obvious, others less so. Some are transformative, others somewhat smaller. This is armchair CEO stuff: these things are easy to wish for, much harder to deliver. And, goodness, it’s a long list…and most items are worthy of an RNS in their own right. There must be fairly significant elements of capital constraint to this list too.

There’s obviously an element of Walter Mitty to this, but it does at least give a sense of what is underway. If half of this happened…wow. I wanted to give myself a sense of the tasks in hand.

1. South Sudan closed with full government approval. No distribution impact from Sudan conflict. Revenue being booked.

2. Another hydrocarbon deal (as advertised by AK) closed with full government approval.

3. ICC final ruling on Chad.

4. If ICC rules in Savannah’s favour, and Chad fails to pay up, the beginning of injunctive proceedings by Savannah over Chadian oil delivered to Kribi.

5. If ICC rules in Savannah’s favour, repayment of the Exxon facility in its entirety.

6. 10% sale of COTCo portion to SNH completed.

7. Dividends from COTCo flowing to Savannah.

8. Project sanction from Cameroonian government on Bini A Warak hydro.

9. Completion of the Transitional Facility for Accugas.

10. Significantly reduced currency exposure to NGN (I still believe we’re booking a hefty fx loss for 2023 even though the floating Naira improves matters going forward).

11. Material progress on pay down of Accugas debt such that the burden of interest expense on the P&L starts to meaningfully reduce.

12. A couple more creditworthy Accugas customers added.

13. Accugas customers taking more of their catch-up gas such that deferred revenue starts to reduce, rather than grow and the statutory revenue numbers start to look more attractive.

14. Completion of Uquo compression project.

15. Niger R3 spur pipeline completed, tied in commissioned.

16. Completion and commissioning of the Amdigh EPF.

17. Timetable for construction of gathering system from neighbouring fields to Amdigh.

18. First oil from Amdigh and a clear roadmap to first revenue.

19. A CPR as far as is possible on R3E to give some 2P visibility.

20. Project sanction on Tarka wind and a costed roadmap to commissioning.

21. Relisting. Company big enough that a further suspension for RTO reasons highly unlikely.

22. Meaningful measures to reduce key-man risk on AK. Only the company can determine how this is best addressed.

23. A return to (reasonably) regular video presentations and Q&A from AK. But also including NB giving the input on the finance and accounting side.

24. A more visible Chairman; especially in terms of driving the B to G elements of Savannah’s business.

Good point, OAW. Thanks.

I was of the view that 28 July was do-or-die: less so now, though.

I think I should probably just relax until there's a meaningful update.

In the meantime, if anyone knows where I can buy McVities Rich Tea biscuits in Bangkok, please let me know.

Splendid to see you back, Agadem, or RR!

Thanks for your input on the AGM which I couldn't physically attend and where the dial-in was received late and then failed. I know Sally did her best to rectify matters as soon as she,was made aware.

I understand that AK was broadly positive, albeit briefly, on the NGN devaluation impact for the company. I still am trying to get into the full detail on this as it seems fundamentally important to the existing business (even if it is far less "exciting" than the CC soap opera and SS mini-series). I know im a stuck record on this, but it's *really* important. It may, of course, be included in the new listing particulars. If we relist without SS perhaps there are no new listing particulars. So many questions. Once relisted, we really need a new slide pack and a video q&a (silence on CC is understandable). It's overdue and, from what I've gathered, the AGM didn't do the company full justice.

....and I absolutely think we're back trading on either Monday 31st July or Tuesday 1st August.

I guess since 28 July was flagged, that's RNS day: if it comes earlier, it's either SS has government consent or it's been abandoned; if it comes on the day, I'd expect some critical unfulfilled condition(s) precedent.

Ditto Tier's remarks. It's a great board this, but Agadem it would be wonderful to hear from you.

That's great news on the fx. Super-kind of you to share, komakino.

The IR performance at these events is.... well....eeerm...

I got bumped out. Tried to dial I again and it says the host has locked the meeting. Rang the company, got an answerphone.

This has been a total shambles. Disgrace.

Nothing for me either

I think the true-up may only apply to the difference between the rate applied by the Central Bank and the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) rate. I'm not sure it will apply to a 50% devaluation which is what we just had (USDNGN460 to USDNGN690). Whether these clauses still apply now the fx rate floats, I don't know.

Rather than have twenty questions at the AGM on this topic, it is probably best to have Nick Beattie simply talk comprehensively through the whole thing for five minutes or so. I don't believe any of us are clear on this issue, but I've probably set a number of you thinking on it, which was part of the goal so we can get to the bottom of it.

Best wishes, all.

I see what you mean; good point!

TIL, I believe that revenues are contracted in USD, but customers pay in NGN at the prevailing spot rate when due. We then are lumbered with Naira.

I would welcome others' interpretations of this material and complex aspect of the financials.

I believe when we *are* paid in NGN, it's at the prevailing fx rate at the time; so whether taking out purely NGN debt on Accugas is a good hedge is debatable. There appears to be a currency fluctuation risk and a liquidity risk in all this.

My understanding is that the gas contracts are in USD, but counterparts may (and do) choose to pay in NGN which, historically, we have been unable to sell for USD.

Thus the desire to restructure Accugas debt into NGN. It appears the fx horse has bolted (the peg has gone) before we've been able to shut the gate (restructure to NGN).

I'd be delighted to be corrected on this as it looks rather adverse to the 2023 p&l.

35. Financial instruments continued

(d) Foreign currency risk

Foreign currency risk arises because the Group’s subsidiaries operate in Nigeria, Niger, France, and the United Kingdom, and enter

into transactions in currencies are not the same as their functional currency. The net assets from such overseas operations are

exposed to currency risk, giving rise to gains or losses on retranslation into the functional currency.

Foreign currency risk also arises when the Group enters into transactions denominated in a currency other than its functional

currency. The main foreign currency risk in the year ended 31 December 2022 relates to transactions denominated in Nigerian Naira.

The primary exchange rate movements that the Group is exposed to are US$:NGN, US$:XOF, US$:XAF, US$:GBP and US$:EUR.

Foreign exchange risk arises from recognised assets and liabilities.

Group

The carrying amounts of the Group’s foreign currency denominated monetary assets and liabilities were as follows:

GBP XOF XAF NGN EUR

As at 31 December 2022 US$’000 US$’000 US$’000 US$’000 US$’000

Cash at bank 3,105 1,442 4,947 198,085 377

Exposure assets 3,105 1,442 4,947 198,085 377

Trade payables (2,128) (45) — (13,046) (119)

Borrowings – current — (12,264) — (803) —

Borrowings – non-current — — — (7,097) —

Exposure liabilities (2,128) (12,309) — (20,946) (119)

Net exposure 977 (10,867) 4,947 177,139 258

GBP XOF XAF NGN EUR

As at 31 December 2021 US$’000 US$’000 US$’000 US$’000 US$’000

Other receivables 65,796 — — — —

Cash at bank 16 (1,705) — 128,857 78

Exposure assets 65,812 (1,705) — 128,857 78

Trade payables (4,994) (38) — (13,844) (126)

Borrowings – current (942) (9,916) — (875) —

Borrowings – non-current — — — (8,608) —

Exposure liabilities (5,936) (9,954) — (23,327) (126)

Net exposure 59,876 (11,659) — 105,530 (48)

As described in note 2, the limitation of information with respect to the Chad Assets has not allowed for complete analysis of the Group’s foreign currency denominated monetary assets and liabilities.

*NGN

See note 35d, page 176.

Net NFN exposure at year-end: USD177m.

Not good.

Https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/africa-press-releases/nilepet-to-become-an-energy-operator-by-2027-says-director-general-dg-during-south-sudan-oil-and-power-ssop-hsniitax

This was the session in which Andrew participated, I believe.

Https://www.reuters.com/article/southsudan-oil-idUSL4N3873UU

That's an encouraging tweet, TIL. Thanks for sharing it.