Member Info for cautionyourblast

Thanks, komakino.

I suspect we were scheduled for that session too, but something has stalled matters. I wonder if someone has sown a thought with SSGov that we aren't well-enough established. I don't believe the timing of the "freezing" of the COTCo 10% sale was coincidental either. Basically, I think Chad is doing everything in its power to shaft us.

Paranoia perhaps. Oh well, fellow jilted bridegrooms,

I'm going for a swim.

I wonder if Cameroon and Chad have made some agreement to kick Savannah out of COTCo. If so, is that also the end of our Cameroonian (ad)ventures?

I'm speculating, of course.

Sigh.

Excellent points, Streets. Thank you.

I'm really hoping SS is a Petronas PXF too.

Totally agree re AGM questions; there's so much to cover, we all need to focus on key issues. I think we particularly need more detail on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Meant to say that existing debt may also be impacted if MAC provisions include this.

The disclaimer of opinion, albeit inevitable and outside the control of the BoD, is a concern.

New debt and debt restructuring will certainly be impacted: financial institutions will struggle to greenlight these without a clean audit opinion. Not sure where this leaves us on new debt (SS, for instance). Of course the debt on Chad will be non-recourse to the group but still, it's an issue.

I'm not clear from the financials how much we remain on the hook for with the Exxon PXF at the date the assets were seized. Its a pity this couldn't have been made clear.

There're loads of positives in the financials, but we should not overlook this important issue.

The board will be keen for a settlement ASAP and an interim audit (of some description), I suspect.

Sorry for the negative post, but I think this is important. Interested to know what others think.

In the draft agenda, there's a scheduled announcement and deal-signing ceremony slated for 11am on the 15th, parties unnamed.

The same day, Knottie is on a one hour panel at 2.30pm on the future of onshore E&P in Africa and the ME.

We know very little here, in truth.

The arbitral settlement looks a very complicated one that I would expect to run well in to 2024. I imagine, if we win (and we may not), the award will run from the date of asset sequestration and will consist of receipt of contribution earned from the assets to that date plus a payment for the deemed asset value at that date.

Three things seem important in the mountain of mess:

1. Have we got control of the former EEPCI bank accounts into which revenues for the sold oil are flowing? I believe so. I can't see us recouping our share any other way. This is far and away the most important issue.

2. How much, if anything, remains outstanding on the debt facility with Exxon?

3. If we receive an award for valuation of assets at date of sequestration, there are unlikely to be sufficient funds for it in escrow (see 1) so could we end up continuing to take contribution from the account for months after the ICC pronouncement to make this good.

Most of the rest, to me as a humble armchair chief exec, seems to be noise.

Sounds minor, but who knows...

https://independent.ng/pia-akwa-ibom-communities-spoil-for-a-fight-with-savannah-energy/

Sadly, Agadem doesn't even seem to have an account here anymore. A great pity as he was an excellent poster and clearly a very intelligent and good-hearted person (discouraged by the usual unnecessary, nasty posts sadly).

Can I ask that as many Agadem fans as possible give this post a thumbs up? Not to like my post but as simply in an attempt to get him to return.

Many thanks, everyone.

Renewable Tunisia Holdings?

I doubt it's Togo , Tanzania or Timbuktu...

I miss your input, Agadem. I really hope you'll be posting again when Savannah relists.

I'm probably reading far too much in to this, but the reference to the hook up to a World Bank-funded project may be an oblique indicator of Savannah's relationships there. Take note, Chadians...

Hi hubenstein. I may be wrong, but I think it's this (much of which I'm sure you're well-aware):
Contribution from Jan 21 to Dec 22 is a reduction to the consideration. Jan-Mar 23 is money in the bag for Savannah (probably). April 23 onwards, money is still going to a bank account of the Savannah-acquired sub. I *think* Shore Capital is assuming that the ICC ruling compensates Savannah for the contribution paid at Dec 22 but gets nothing beyond that. The Savannah compensation for the contribution is likely to come out of (get kept from) the funds received in the acquired sub. Chances of Chad actually paying Savannah anything are zero, I think. I imagine Savannah continues as treasurer for upstream Doba until it has been made whole under the ICC settlement. I think this is the most likely.

Happy to hear other interpretations, of course.

Thanks, Mr B. So kind of you.

Cameroon's GDP is three times that of Chad. The Chad oil has to flow through Cameroon to reach the market.
One imagines these two points give Cameroon a bit of an edge in determining outcomes.

Frankly it's all so soap-operatic that I'm half expecting Knottie to show up, turn to Idriss Deby Itna and say "I am your father, Luke."

I find it hard to believe that Savannah is paying the salaries without receipt of the revenue. My understanding is that the only thing that has changed since Save bought the Exxon subsidiary is that the Savannah staff has been expelled and the Chadians have made a lot of noise. It appears cashflows, both incoming and outgoing, have carried on to and from the entity transferred under the SPA. This is my best guess.

Flurry of Savannah tweets in the last few minutes. And an amusing pic of Knottie surrounded by more microphones than in Meghan Markle's wildest dreams.

Looks a good appointment to me.

Buying USD2m of shares at the suspension price is a vote of confidence in what happens when we relist.

Separately, financing and refinancing is obviously currently preclusively expensive. I'd be interested to see the blended rate on our debt pile. We can't go full whack on Niger with all the other stuff going on and current cost of capital.

Good morning.

I've re-read page 5 of the presentation entitled "Restoration to AIM and major acquisition" dated December 2021 (some pages dated September 2021). Page 5 shows 9-year average revenue from midstream Exxon at USD85.1m. However 9-year average FCF is estimated at USD37.4m. I thought my estimate looked a bit punchy! Still, even at that level, Cotco midstream business looks worthy of well over USD100m to Savannah. PV10 from Exxon midstream is shown at USD288.3m.

1. The Sep21 presentation showed midstream cashflow pa of usd85.1m from Exxon acquisition. This *seems* to based on gross throughput of 97kbopd (per the prez). Actual throughput in q1 2023 was 128.8kbopd. Obviously we may well lose the Chadian portion of this revenue, but since the majority of the pipeline and the FSPO is on the Cameroonian side, we might well still expect cashflow contribution from Cotco of around, say, usd70m+ pa (before tax) at current levels of throughput. Stick an undemanding multiple of 4 on this and it's easily more than half market cap at suspension.

2. A renewables deal for SS now seems highly likely reading between the lines. I expect an announcement alongside the govt approval of the oil deal.

3. Niger appears slow, but there was no point in spending a fortune in time and money until certainty on the pipeline to Benin was in place. That time is now.

4. Goodness knows on Chad. Soap operatic.

I'm happy.