Member Info for cautionyourblast

These financials should mark a turning point for the SP. The groundwork is done and management has now learned not to over-promise, apparently.

Spin-off of BE far preferable to fund-raise in current structure.

Tend not to post much here due to sea of green filtered people to which I regularly add.

Be well, pdub.

Thanks ZENGAS.
I really dislike the final sentence here.
It’s a waiting game.

I think you’ll be getting your Sunseeker, Aggers.
https://www.sunseeker.com/

A few more of us might, give what Knotty is setting out.

No surprises to see komakino doing it properly with lime mortar: sand and cement will just crack and fall out. It’s a quality bulletin board here.

Reporting deadlines were “temporarily” relaxed by the FCA from four to six months because of covid (what else!) and I don’t think they’ve moved back.

I’m betting on 30 June this year, but as you say who knows...

You’re quite right, Aggers; thanks for the correction. See, this is why you shouldn’t go quiet; I’ll post something stupid!

Great to have you back, Agadem. Don’t worry about your notes boring people; your insights are always good here.

Completely agree on Accugas debt restructuring and Niger update: even if there’re obstacles, at this stage it would be better to inform shareholders.

Given the Friday RNS, there’s no way that the Chad deal isn’t happening now and your win-win-win comment on lower cost, better environmental credentials and benefits locally is well-made.

I hope the timing of this announcement means that we see 18 months of CC revenue and profit booked in the 30 June 2022 interims. Perhaps I’m being a bit schoolboy enthusiastic, though. When this deal is booked, it will be so transformative for the financial metrics that I would expect SAVE to land in quite a few II and PI positively-filtered lists. I would hope that would continue to drive momentum and a move towards your fêted 89 pence.

Bit concerning to see that Agadem hasn’t posted since 8 April now. Does anyone know anything?

Agadem: if you’re reading this, you’ve a lot of supporters here. We hope you’re ok.

Very best wishes
Andrew

There’re an awful lot of things going on here.

I feel a decent briefing in the glossy on recruitment, execution risk and management bandwidth is in order.

In fairness, Knotty has talked about recruitment and training of the right people a lot in recent broadcasts, but I’m sure I’m not the only person thinking about how all of these wonderful opportunities and assets get executed and fully exploited.

Oh yes! Thanks! Well spotted!

Perhaps this is too obvious but I wonder if a renewable project in Cameroon also gets announced at some point. Of course, Cameroon is midstream-focussed for SAVE at present, so it’s obviously a bit different to Niger and Chad. Just a thought...

Final sentence from Knotty:

“We expect to announce our involvement in further large-scale greenfield power projects over the course of the next 12 months.”

Blimey.

Thanks, OaW; good of you.

....and I believe AK has said that Brent is our proxy in Chad, though Doba crude generally trades at a premium to Brent, I understand.

Stupid question here: is SAVE impacted by Rishi’s make-it-up-as-you-go-long, that’ll-instill-business-confidence tax?

...and I cannot resist adding that FCF jumps to $376m in the SAVE presentation when oil is at $100/bbl.

Nine year 2P average FCF forecast $279m. Assumes: nothing from Niger; oil at about $70/bbl; no workovers on Chad; no new custom in Nigeria (I believe, please correct me if wrong).

So with market cap currently at $591m we trade at 2.1 times projected average FCF over nine years....based on the most conservative of assumptions. I’m beginning to think I must be thick because I can’t understand why this isn’t already significantly higher. I don’t see how C-C doesn’t happen at this stage (look at TIL’s helpful post today). Exxon are all packed up and gone.

Me and a couple of pals hold rather a lot of these...

Thanks, Tier: it was kind of you to share it.

...(and notwithstanding the kind post someone made the other day on a couple of these points and which now seems to have mysteriously disappeared) I’d love an RNS update on:

1. What’s going on Niger and the status of the pipeline that links us up with the tube to Zinder
2. The saga of the Accugas debt restructuring (clearly has been more fraught than first envisaged)
3. New CFO anyone? Status of legal proceedings with the last one. Perhaps no appointee until legal proceedings concluded.
4. When can we expect revenues for CC to get booked (if it’s in the interims, I assume we get 18 months’ worth of action, if it’s in the FY22 finals, surely it’s two years’ worth)
5. Nigeria revenue and cash collections update
6. Any view on exporting gas from Kwa Ibom to Rotterdam to help to rescue the short-sighted Europeans who thought Pootie-Poots wasn’t a psychopath.

Of course there’s loads of other stuff.
And of course I’m being unreasonably impatient; management and employees are juggling so much here.

I just wanted to inject a bit of enthusiasm on the BB; I know there’re a pile of SAVE fans out there. This is easily my biggest position.

I continue to believe that a bargain is hiding in plain sight.

Best wishes
CYB

Similar for me, MG; I imagine there’s quite a group of us here. My big takeaway from my BMN investment is to buy in to the maths as well as the story; this was too much the latter for me at my entry price. I still think I’ll end up realising a profit when the full business expansion and Belco reach fruition. But I must admit I made a mistake with my analysis when I bought. I’ll probably get stick for this (so be it), but I suspect many others on this board will be in the same boat.

If you want to buy on the basis of the maths, SAVE (my biggest position) looks rather attractive still. Shameless plug. DYOR of course.

I continue to hold here.

Ok, I admit it: I really don’t understand what has caused the sharp pullback in the last three weeks. If anything, I’d have expected the opposite given the murderous scumbag in Moscow. Can anyone kindly assist? I’d be most grateful.