Member Info for cautionyourblast

SAVE is going to do an SLP.
DYOR, of course.

Fair enough, Pdub. I guess I’m concerned that financial engineering and complex structuring is distracting mgmt from the core activity. It’s always been a suspicion of mine here, but may be unfounded...

Hi Fortune
Patience is wearing a bit thin for me. I thought I’d invested in a company that dug up high-grade Rock and refined it into vanadium products; a company which was trying to build scale, drive down cost and move in to the VRFB space with the electrolyte plant in East London and engagement on the same with top levels in the SA government.

I’d like an update on all that, please and guidance on production and cost of production.

I am a bit over all the Mustang stuff on Euro-Reversible Donald Trump Trouser Bonds. Where’s the big picture update?

Thanks

(cue bulletin board abuse...)

The thing about SAVE is, we know the oil/gas is there in Nigeria and Chad. Even in Niger, the explo is super positive and we’ve only scratched the surface. And the hedge for lower prices is the midstream stuff. Sure, there are risks, but we also have some mitigants here by being geographically diversified (I’m assuming C-C completes, of course).

So many smaller oilers are all about a few drills...which often end up being all mouth and no trousers.

I have added to my SAVE position again this week. I’m honestly very surprised that the price isn’t already significantly higher.

Best wishes, everyone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-60138129

Totally agree, Agadem. Keyman risk is one of SAVE's biggest risks: possibly *the* biggest risk. There may well be fantastic and inexpensive opportunities in region, but there is also the risk of overreach and loss of focus. For instance, I am a little nervous on the proposal of a renewables purchase.

Also, having a very hands-on CFO who can manage the banks, key counterparts and key strategic investors is essential. The appointment should really help take the weight off AK. It'll be interesting to see if Nick Beattie gets the role or not.

Steve Jenkins and the NEDs should be guiding on these issues.

It's easy for us all as PIs to sit at our desks and do excel models or talk about Price to FCF ratios or adding another big ticket, but the team are clearly working flat out on complex deals in difficult geographies. At some point, people need to come up for air, take a break and take stock - we're all human.

I know this post isn't analytical in the same way the great posts are from a number of you on here, but I think it is still extremely important.

Have a peaceful weekend, everyone.

Encouraging read for long-term holders...

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/971367/hydrogen-remains-a-long-term-investment-opportunity-says-jpmorgan-971367.html

I thought it was worth reminding ourselves that at current oil prices, SAVE is trading at about 1.5 times free cash flow (next nine years projections) based on Andrew Knott’s 31 December presentation. Oh, by the way, he described the production forecasts as the “rubbish” scenario (if I heard him correctly).

This time next year, Rodney...

Thanks for confirming, PSB: apologies for my earlier misleading post. I still believe there’s someone knocking out shares fairly aggressively, mind.

Actually, I think I’m wrong, sorry. The VR disclosure appears to be them crossing the 5% threshold because of dilution.

Please ignore my earlier post.

(Nevermind)

The RNS this afternoon appears to confirm my theory.
All the best

I strongly suspect (from watching the volumes since relisting) that one party has sold out at least 1% or more of stock. Evidence being continuous big (relatively), round-number tickets at or around market-mid during the day and then hefty tickets reported at or after the close most days. Looks like someone is working out a position and, of course, there may be more to come. Morningstar disclosures may shed some light in coming weeks.

I may be wrong (often am, I bought BMN after all), but it matters not. What really matters are the results and progress.

In the meantime you could tell your pals to get in. As Kurt once said “load up on guns and bring your friends...”

Good morning.

Blimey, and I thought yesterday morning’s volume was low...

Thanks, Streets!
I meant Investment Manager, though we could insert all kinds of acronyms and euphemisms...

Morning all.

A wild frenzy of trading today; 241,000 shares traded in the first hour.

So we’re all positioned....

Slightly nerdily, I’ve noted that those 50, 100, 200k tickets at or around the mid keep getting filled since we relisted. I usually roll my eyes when someone on one of these boards starts banging on about “waiting for the big seller to clear”, but it does appear that one party may be offloading a few million. It’s no big deal if you’ve bought here for long-term value; and it’s pretty foolish if you haven’t, frankly.

So all that remains is to sit back and await: (1) ops news and financial updates (we all know the many possible strands); (2) a discretionary IM having a decent punt; (3) a tip in the financial press that brings in more PIs; and (4) Malcy or maybe the excellent Matt Gordon at Crux doing a really top-notch YouTube interview. Hopefully things stay relatively peaceful in our countries of interest, of course.

I’ll be looking regularly but, if I had any sense, I’d just take a glance this time next year.

All the best

$16,750 this morning.
The Matthey price prints are the only easily-accessed meaningful ones imo. I ignore the XRH0 ETF and other pricing.

“*suggest* that someone...”

I should reread before posting...

That occurred to me too, SQ: I guess Caligula would blush given the mountain they’ve climbed in recent weeks/months. I suspect there’ll be something though.

I’m reading the tealeaves somewhat, but trades in recent days that someone is banging out the odd 100k or 50k over the period. It doesn’t matter really; next point of interest likely to be Accugas funding restructuring, something on a renewables deal or (as SQ suggests) a nice, detailed trading update. ....or something else entirely.

Excellent, thought-provoking post, bangrak: thank you.

For context on ICE/BEV/PHEV outlook, the BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook report below is very good. You need to register to read it, but it's free.
https://bnef.turtl.co/story/evo-2021/page/4/1

Thanks, Interzone/komakino: very kind. I should’ve thought of CH.