Member Info for cautionyourblast

“It happened fast, it’s over quick
A little dust and the engine kicks...”

Ford shatters earnings estimates, raises yearly guidance on new vehicle demand
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/ford-f-earnings-q3-2021.html?__source=iosappshare%7Cnet.whatsapp.WhatsApp.ShareExtension

I was hoping for an update in the news to drop after the Monday-night-to-Tuesday-morning deadline imposed by Exxon on the Doba employees had passed. My Walter Mitty naïvety continues to get the better of me.

When one sees the video of the ex-Exxon guy and hear the anecdotal snippets of information on the negotiating position of the workers, it reinforces how difficult it can be to do business in frontier markets.

My hope is that, should the CC deal fall away, the company can move promptly to restructuring the Nigeria debt and funding the Niger drills regardless. One imagines that contingencies are in place. This of course assumes that the CC deal funding somehow became tied up with the extant business units (pure speculation, but seems reasonable given that the Accugas debt restructuring apparently got pulled earlier in the year).

Best wishes, all

Agree all, Agadem. Pre-export financing likely, IMO.

Of course, there’s the none-too-small matter of funding Niger progress too...
So much opportunity.

Good morning, everyone.
The Nigerian assets are throwing off so much cash that is reducing the existing Accugas (and this group) debt burden. We know that the Accugas debt was due to be restructured in H2 2021 but now suspect (at least I do anyway) that such restructuring will be undertaken alongside the C/C deal (if it happens).

I wondered, given all this, whether perhaps C/C is going to be fully funded with debt and no new equity issued. One imagines that AK will not wish to see his sizeable shareholding diluted if at all possible (and I would prefer all debt too, if the debt burden can continue to be reduced from day one). The maximum equity dilution is 30% (as I recall) without new votes being tabled.

Anyway, all this is speculation and we must await the Doba employees response to the Exxon (apparently final) offer/ultimatum which, courtesy of Interzone’s messages (Wednesday 07:35 in particular), we know expires as Monday turns into Tuesday.

I’m hoping some items will be positively resolved by this time next week.

Thank you, hubenstein. Schoolboy giggles all round!

...to all the great posters on this board through this process, and in particular ZENGAS, Agadem and Interzone. I only wish that my few posts could’ve been as informative as most of yours, all of you.

Savour these days, everyone: the board will soon be awash with the usual cretins going on about rampers, derampers, head-and-shoulders and double-top patterns (charts for small-cap shares, good grief), market-maker games, evil shorters, “it’s going to blow”, “BOOM”. I implore you all not to engage with them but to simply filter them.

My fun fact of the day is that the airfield at Doba is called “Dildo”. Sorry not to have anything of higher quality to share today.

Interesting article. as with all these things, commercial viability is key.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/recycled-batteries-good-as-newly-mined

I continue to hold some BMN.

...by Jaco and Lewane is now available on the investormeetcompany.com site.

Q1s next week, hopefully...

The Matthey PGM market report is the best place I've seen for insight into the underlying drivers of PGM supply/demand and thus deficit/surplus. The latest report is from May so somewhat pre-dates the chip bun fight (chip butty fight?) but is still worth a close read.

NOx targets will apparently continue to be tightened in the EU which can only drive demand.

Current SLP pricing looks very modest on current metrics (of course, we all know this, it's obvious) and also if one believes (1) ICE cars (including plug-in hybrids) are here for much longer than Torquil and Jocasta at the BBC would have us believe, (2) the global car market will continue to grow as middle classes in developing countries (India, China, Vietnam,, etc) move from two old wheels (or no wheels at all) to four new ones, (3) nations continue to tighten NOx emissions criteria.

Runaway inflation caused by the profligacy of central bank nutters could blow-up the whole thing but we might have more to worry about than SLP if that comes to pass.

SLP remains my biggest position and, of course, it remains a major punt on the PGM basket price.

In the company's recent report, I suspect that ever-sensible and cautious Stuart Murray will have said to Jaco "stick some wildly-varying price forecasts in the presentation". Mgmt is keen to remind us that we are at the mercy of the basket price and they are totally right to do so.

The price here often seems to get bid up shortly before the quarterlies drop. Perhaps I’m imagining this, but I don’t think so.

Q1s in a couple of weeks from now. I see no reason why they shouldn’t underpin today’s price. I imagine there may be cautionary comments on unit cost and covid, but that’s already known.

...filtered

Good to see management and employees sharing in this. They deserve it.
Thanks, SLP team.

Very encouraging update today. I imagine that the management team are flat-out busy on all fronts.

I was a little disappointed not to see a mention of the proposed Accugas debt restructuring (unless somehow I’ve missed it). I suspect this has been put on hold pending the outcome of the proposed CC deal but, if this is the case, I think it should’ve been mentioned. I suppose it could somehow be tied into the overall financing of the company if CC goes ahead, but the corporate financiers amongst you will know better (and of course Nigeria is not Chad!) All guesswork on my part.

Best wishes all and thanks for the continued quality posts on this board. Make the most of it; it’ll be the usual nonsense about graphs, shorters and derampers when the imbeciles arrive.

Thanks for excellent posts today, marineclark.

Brilliant, witty and accurate the post from Minecheck. Today’s internet champion.

EU plans to tighten its NOx standards again next year (see the spring Matthey PGM report). I expect China will gradually see more stringent standards on NOx too (only since Xi has to breathe the same air as the peasants in the hutongs overshadowed by the CNOOC hq on the second ring road).

I was curious as to how long the last one lasted, so I went to the RNSs.

It was 8 June 2017 to 22 December 2017. Six and a half months.

We’ve been on-hold just over three months so far this time. Of course this is a comparison of apples with oranges but, absent any other news, I thought I’d have a look.

I’m sure this too is an extremely complicated transaction. We may need to stay patient a while yet.

Thanks, HaleSpur, Tach, artrader. All helpful. I’ve always had a view that the nature of the contracts with the mines is what has prevented a takeover here, though this is pure speculation on my part.

(HaleSpur: well done on being in Largo; I’m in Sylvie’s next door neighbour, BMN...which is rather a different story, sadly)

Hi bangrak
Thanks for the really insightful post. Can I ask where you got your 9-year remaining asset life figure from? I’m not saying that you’re wrong: far from it. I just couldn’t find any specific reference to remaining asset life and reserves in last year’s financials or any RNS since (I may have missed it somehow). This issue is obviously super-important and I’m a bit uneasy that it doesn’t seem to be heavily reported by management.
I’d like to see a whole page of the annual report dedicated to this topic. Maybe there’s something in the Samancor contractual arrangements which makes the company reluctant to publish more detail.

Thanks again: I hope Suriwong still has a pulse...

As I’ve said before on this board, the 20/21 EPS is easily worked out (barring any accounting adjustments to the FV of assets or similar) from the last four quarterly RNSs. The interest for me in the year end release will be the commentary rather than the financials. I expect it to be cautious and understated as ever (but who knows...)