Member Info for cautionyourblast

If anyone from the company reads this, you need to improve your formal comms in terms of strategy, operational performance by quarter, capex plans (kilns, electrolyte plant, etc.) for each area of the business. Also, what are the plans on share structure now. These should be regular, reasonably detailed and clear. Points from previous comms need following up on, whether news is good or bad.

Last quarter’s update was 4 Feb (subsequently corrected 8 Feb). We are due an update next week. It needs to be detailed enough so that investors and prospective investors can reasonably assess the investment opportunity.

This is from January last year, but it's a useful reminder of the ambition...

https://nairametrics.com/2020/01/24/british-company-set-to-acquire-more-nigerian-oil-gas-firms/

Thanks, Porschefund. Another great piece of insight; this is such a high-quality bulletin board.

The annual report should be a really interesting read this time.

ATB

*rerate.
Thanks spellchecker, you cretin.

So few trades here. This great opportunity seems to have been largely forgotten by PIs and IIs.

Could we see a profit after tax of USD50m for 2020? Hard to say as there’s little historic data to go on. If 2020 PAT were to be that high, surely a big relate would occur, especially given that take-or-pay nature of the gas off-takes, the likelihood of adding new gas customers or Accugas pipeline users and (of course) the Niger opportunity.

This is my second biggest position (after SLP).

Best wishes, all. And thanks again for the great posts to many of you, Agadem and ZENGAS in particular.

Savannah should, of course, read Sylvania.

I am also in Savannah Energy (SAVE) which I am expecting to turn into a nice little earner.

Perhaps lockdown is getting to me...

...to be published middle of next week, I assume.

Should be good given basket price. I wonder if there’ll be any announcements on tailings, Volspruit, share buybacks (though perhaps that ship has sailed given the run up in the price).

I suspect any acquisition targets would be richly priced by a prospective seller given current market conditions. Bide your time, Savannah team; no point in rushing into something that doesn’t have a stand-alone, compelling financial case.

Anyway, it will be a very interesting RNS.

Best wishes, all

Thank you, ZENGAS: this is great insight, as ever - extremely kind of you.

I clearly need to go back to the last glossy and study again in detail.

The 2020 financials will, I believe, make the current price appear far too low.

Best wishes,

...and, yes, I’ve ignored the 2C in my question below. That 2C extends the life considerably, as the presentation makes clear.

Morning all. I’ve a question for the o&g experts amongst you.

This is from the latest corporate presentation: “• 2020 Nigerian gas and liquids production amounted to 19.5Kboepd/ 117.2MMscfepd (88% gas, 12% liquids)
• End 2020 Nigerian 2P reserves at 65MMboe, 2C resources at 59MMboe
• End 2020 2P /2C Nigerian Reserve and Resource Life Index of 26.5 years”.

By my maths, that’s about 7m boe pa on 2020 production volumes. Which means the 2P reserves are extinguished in about 9 years. Of course, the company has take-or-pay contracts running to 2037.

So.... either they’re highly confident that Uquo and Stubb Creek 2P continue to replenish as gas is tolled, or they’re digging more wells there, or elsewhere locally.

Have I missed something? Could any of you please give some insight?

Thanks and best regards

Thanks, N2M.
I think that the release of the financials may really start attracting attention from prospective new investors. As we know, 2020 is the first year when the Uquo/Accugas asset really shows up in full.

Best wishes

Does anyone have any ideas what things have drifted down? I suspect, and hope, that it’s just the MMs walking it down (along with a number of other small-caps) in advance of tax year end in order to pick up some shares on the cheap.

I have a rather large position here, otherwise I would buy more. Looks a great medium term play as Nigeria customers are added, existing ones take more gas and the Niger opportunity starts to come into focus. (And the debt gets restructured, and the 2020 financials come out).

The news on the country manager rather puts the trivialities of profit and loss into perspective.

Thanks, Snaffleman! Looking at the tickets in the last hour of trading, volume doesn't appear to be very large.

I'm not in the least bothered anyway: gradual growth in the Nigeria customer base, a debt restructure and an update or two on Niger progress will see this share make very good progress during the rest of the year, I believe.

The reporting of the bottom-line for 2020 may also make a few instits sit up and take note, I hope.

Best wishes

*if absolutely necessary (not "is")

Agreed spawny. He mentioned H1 in terms of debt restructuring, I thought. My other take away was that the pipeline network is very shortly to be linked up (via third parties) to Lagos, thus giving countrywide connectivity.

Also, he said that a bit of money could be swung from Nigeria to Niger is absolutely necessary, but that he expected Niger to be self-funding and that there were not plans for a fund-raise based on current operations and plans, though any new acquisitions would be a different matter.

Minor point - they didn't bid on any marginal fields as they couldn't see the value.

Hope I am not mis-representing any of this: I need to install decent wifi/microphone at his place in Abuja and also do a crash course in Glaswegian.

It was interesting that they are in the process of getting a credit rating for Accugas (if I heard correctly). This appears to be in advance of a debt restructure.

Did I hear this right, everyone?

Thanks, Steve. I suppose the vast majority of it must flow through to the bottom line (net of tax, of course).

I’d love to meet you to discuss, Alfa.

No responses on this, so I’m guessing many of you also struggle to address these important points (as I do).