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Thank gkb!

Here’s a projection (with lots of assumptions, so please indulge me).
Current market cap at 68p: £185m
Cash at last year end: $55m
GBPUSD: 1.3
Q1 net profit: $17m + $4m prior quarter.
Dividends ignored (as *theoretically* the SP should fall by whatever is paid)

Target profit for year: 21+17+17+17=$72m=£55m assumes no non-cash adjustments.
Cash at year end (after capex, etc. This is a bit of a guess): $95m=£73m. Adding $40m to last year end.

Forward PE after stripping out possible year end cash balance = (185-73)/55= 2.04.

Two point zero four!

I know this is open to all kinds of criticism..... but the current price is a joke.

Thanks, toptiger: that’s my assumption too. I guess restating last year is a hassle they don’t want to go through...and obviously think that they don’t have to.

Can any of you help me with this please?
“The movement in the gross basket price on ounces delivered in Q4 FY2020 and invoiced during the quarter resulted in a positive sales adjustment of ZAR70.0 million ($4.1 million) for PGM concentrate delivered in the previous quarter.”
I assume it means the profit for the quarter (q1 FY2021) was $17m (21-4) when this is excluded. I also assume it’s a one-off. Begs the question as to whether we are accruals accounting here...surely we must be? Finally (and all other things being equal) would that mean we could assume a standard run-rate net profit of $17m at this operating output and basket price, or 21? I assume it’s 17. Any insight gratefully received (and I’m a financial markets guy and qualified accountant! :-))
Thanks and best wishes

You may well be right, ragnar.
They certainly won’t do the numbers, but I thought they might do the timetable. A man needs to tax plan! :-)

Hi ragnar!
I had rather expected that they’d coincide it too.

It seems that the MMs have pushed the price up a bit this morning as people position ahead of the results.
After the year-end prez from Jaco, I’m not really expecting any big announcements outside of the ordinary course of business...but one never really knows.

I do think they may well deliver a specific timetable in respect of the special dividend.

Best wishes,

One imagines that these drop this week.

In the event of a net profit reported of at least $15m and possibly quite a bit more, then the current valuation is starting to look a bit silly, especially when cash is stripped out.

We really need them to get the market data providers (Thomson Reuters et al) to change the companies classification which currently falls under...uranium: of all things. This matters as it may well be a filter for certain IIs and PIs simply to ignore the company on ethical grounds.

It would be nice if you could include this: thanks and well done for taking the initiative.

Best wishes

...I guess not. *sigh*

...can the many intelligent people on this board stop engaging with the nutters? Thanks.

...is a bit of a giggle this morning. For comparison!

I suspect that your model is far more sophisticated than mine, ragnar. Just looking at the Pt, Pd and Rh charts over the last year makes me think it could be an upside surprise (absent any stunts).

This is my biggest position, so I can’t really add more without getting a nosebleed...

I probably need to curb my exuberance somewhat, ragnar! That Sunseeker will have to wait...

This is a bit of a rough summary (and I know you’ll be well-aware of the detail), but I think they made most of last year’s USD50m net profit (excluding the impairment) in the first three quarters (when I suspect the average basket price was still lower than it has been since 30 June). As we know, Q4 profit was just USD2.1m and they booked an impairment of USD9.5m at year end. I might be being a bit over-optimistic, but I’m hoping it’s nearer USD20m for this quarter.

On reflection I agree with you that profit-taking may hold the price down for a while.

All the best

If things go like normal, these should be published in about a week from now; last year it was 22 October.

If production during the quarter has not faced interruption, then we might expect a net profit of USD20m given the basket price in the last few months.

I’d expect a push through 70 pence in the absence of any mishaps or tomfoolery.

Lots of “ifs”: but with total certainty in life, we’d all own Sunseekers with lissom, pretty, efficient crew and a well-stocked galley of treats.

Your other points are well-made and appreciated too...

Thanks so much, Sanchez; I hadn’t seen this before.
Very informative....based in facts and data. Splendid!

I know people are hopeful that GS’s departure may cause the price to be better supported or start to move up, perhaps even strongly. This is a plaintiff question: does anyone have evidence of this with this type of AIM share?

I certainly hope it will start to rise when they’re gone but the skeptic in me wonders whether it’ll make little or no difference. I’d appreciate any insight; thanks.

BMN remains my second largest position with an average price of 15.6 pence.

Good morning, everyone.

I bought the 454k for 11 pence at about 12:20pm.
Lowering my average price!

Lionel: please stand for public office!
Good morning!

No apologies necessary, Lionel!
Makes much more sense now.

You are very kind to post all this; thank you, again.