Member Info for cautionyourblast

Seems no one else knows...so far, at least.
Lack of this info rather makes all the other numbers in the RNS pretty meaningless in the context of understanding the potential value to BMN. Not very impressed...

What percentage does our BMN investment (rather than the syndicate) now hold (indirectly, obviously) in Enerox, please?

I’m not very impressed that this was not explicitly set out in the RNS. And if our percentage of the syndicate is confidential for some reason, then that should’ve been stated.

The increased holding at an apparently cheap price is to be welcomed of course.

Agreed, Tiger.

A recap which people may find helpful:
Net profit for the year (from the quarterly reports) is over USD51m, cash is currently 55.9m. Mkt cap currently GBP136m (=USD176.3)

The back-of-fag-packet historical PE for 2019/20 is therefore under 3.5 and, stripping out cash, it’s under 2.4. ....PW Botha!

Haha! Sounds right, stoodio.
Cars...guns...’murica.

Thanks, oska: fascinating stuff.
My feeling (perhaps obviously!) is that catalytic converters will remain the key driver of demand. I also think that, even if Joe gets in, passing legislation to phase out petrol cars will take time given US legislature (I guess he’d need both houses but what do I know) and even then the date for retirement of petrol cars would be beyond 2035. On top of that, a growing middle class in Asia (despite this horrible virus) will continue to drive demand for....petrol cars and thus Pd.

I liked the posts about Au and Ag dragging up the price of Pt as well!

Mr Prinsloo’s maiden set of financials (as CEO at least) should be fascinating.

Could this concern be part of the reason for undervaluation here? Or is this just conjecture? Some of you will know far more than me on US politics in this regard.

SLP is my biggest holding, by the way...

https://www.reporter.am/biden-set-to-effectively-ban-gas-powered-vehicles-if-elected/

A big dividend would be nice of course, but points surrounding sustainability are well-made. I recall that the bod (which admittedly has changed) has made rather cautionary comments when dividends were first introduced but they have committed to returning value to investors via dividends and buy-backs. Any dividend will likely be knocked off the SP on ex-div date, so it’s no big deal for me.

If they don’t announce a chunky dividend, then I would expect an announcement of what they plan to do with the cash pile: having it gather dust on deposit is not a good approach. That said, they should maintain some buffer to capitalise on opportunities or deal with any unforeseen stuff.

Further to my earlier post, the historical PE for 2019/20 is well under 4 and, stripping out cash, it’s nearer 2.5. Blimey.

...looks like net revenue of over $115m and net profit over $51m. I did this arithmetic in my head looking at the Q2 op update and today’s so I’m hoping I got it right! On this basis, and with the cash pile, the apparently reasonable sources of feedstock and the decent outlook for petrol cars for the foreseeable, the SP looks a bit silly.

Good morning, all.

I sympathise, Daisydog, and appreciate your candour and dry wit! We’ve all been there: my ability to grab defeat from the jaws of victory is legendary. There’ll be successes too, I’m sure...

Rob and Peter presented very well this morning: thanks to both of them.

They are clearly exasperated with the SP but, in my view at least, the market is signalling that the company must deliver on its existing portfolio of assets. Acquisitions in, say, renewables should not be a priority unless a true bargain falls into management’s lap.

I’m stupidly underwater here, btw. Lessons to be learned...

Thanks, cosmic: I’ll head there to do some homework.

Thanks, Libero and Alfacomp, for your responses.
I’d love it if anyone could answer the questions I’ve posed: they are the most important issues for LTHs to be thinking about right now (assuming you buy into the strategy and operational aspects of this share, which I do).

I’m not saying a full London delist will happen or even that it’s likely... but it *could* happen, or could be attempted. As PIs, we should consider the possibility I think, even if remote. I imagine I’ll get a load of abuse for this (since that’s sadly the way this once top-notch board seems to be headed) but it’s a genuine concern, for me at least.

I’m sure there’s an M&A guy or gal somewhere on this board who could try to answer these critically important questions. Please!

Also, does anyone know a UK broker that offers JSE shares to UK punters (assuming my worse case scenario we’re to come to pass)?

Thanks, all.
CYB

bassguy, I agree with you that at least some if this movement may well be driven by expectations of a delisting from AIM.
It’s entirely understandable that a JSE listing could be favoured by management given the desire to keep relations with the SA government good.
I know people think my concern is misplaced but I am mindful of a complete delisting from London...and, once again, a group of AIM PIs getting stuffed.
If a dual listing takes place I’ve been trying to find out how the mechanism works. My understanding is that the price on each exchange is supposed to reflect the full market capitalisation of the company; but then how does the share offer on JSE not dilute us? How are voting rights impacted? Also, what percentage of shareholders would need to vote in favour to take this action: is it an ordinary or special resolution.
Sorry for all the questions, but these seem very important points to me. We all know how attractive the fundamentals are and how stupidly low the SP is now. This is my second biggest holding, btw.

Thanks, Joe
I do hope you’re right as I don’t believe my broker will do a CDI in a JSE stock!

I’ve just been trawling around trying to find a UK online broker that offers trading of Jo’burg listed equities. Just in case. No joy yet, I’m afraid. Could anyone advise, please?
Thank you.

Thanks to a number of you for the thoughtful and detailed responses on this thread last night and this morning. Very informative for me; much appreciated.

It will be good to see a detailed update on feedstock in the 2019/20 financials.

I imagine the SP is being held back by concerns over Q4 production and that of future quarters. Others here will know more than me on that front and also whether feedstock will remain readily available. I’m not trying to talk the price down; I’d just like to know if anyone might have any insight on these items they might share, thanks.

This is my biggest position. It looks farcically undervalued...

Thanks, Ian and Diamond.
I thought the FCA had given some advice about a grace period for delay given the current insanity.
I may have got it all wrong...wouldn’t be the first time.

Thanks for bringing the debate round to the current demand driver for V: steel. This remains the likely driver of the SP for now, alongside the great production growth.

I’ve been looking, in vain, for any estimate of the release of the year end financials: I’m sure it has been mentioned here. Could anyone enlighten me please?

https://mobile.twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1268302263015137289