Member Info for cautionyourblast

I agree. SLP must surely be a takeover target. I’m actually surprised that a bid hasn’t come in in the last twelve months.

It’s my biggest position.

Haha! Negative comments there certainly get some stick. Like you, I’ve always preferred a dispassionate, pros-and-cons sort of approach.
Good morning!

Hi gkb
As a shareholder in both SLP and Bushveld Minerals, I think your VRFB idea for SLP is an excellent one! I may drop it into a future post over on the BMN board. They’re my two biggest holdings...

I share your frustration, knuttie.

I should also have mentioned that resources stocks are generally out-of-favour and BMN remains, for now at least, a resource stock. Rebranding might be helpful, but to what? How about Bushveld Steel-Strengthening-and-Clean-Energy Limited...doesn’t really roll off the tongue and they'd have to do letterhead in landscape instead of portrait.

The fact that the share is inexplicably classified under the category “Uranium” will cause it to be filtered by a number of funds, potentially rather a lot. The irony of this given the VRFB business will not be lost on you, I’m sure.

*well-aware of

Hi Libero
It’s a weird, weird thing that little or no value seems to be attributed by the market to Bushveld Energy or to the roadmap for seriously increasing production.
My view is that, even excluding the Bushveld Energy unit, this is an attractive buy. Because of: the expected expansion in ops, strong management, solid balance sheet, great asset base and (fingers crossed) a floor under V prices given the ongoing need for strengthened steel.

Unfortunately, I remain concerned about the listing arrangements. No posts made over the last weeks and months have given me comfort on this point. (No need to reiterate them, folks, I’m well-aware I’d strongly-held views, thanks.)

I'm frustrated at the SP being in the doldrums and it seems lots of us are given the current tone of this BB. BMN is my second biggest position (after SLP).
My observations (some of which is obvious and some of which will probably be unpopular, but anyway):
1. We're on AIM and in S Africa. This is not great but some companies (such as our close geographic neighbour, AIM-listed Sylvania Platinum) shrug it off. I think this is because they have very solid historical fundamentals: I'm sure BMN will have in future, but it doesn't yet.
2. FY2018 and FY2019 net profit were supported by higher V prices which have since fallen back. I accept that they have moved up recently, but obviously not to the level enjoyed at that time. Also the 2019 numbers include a large one-off gain on the Vanchem purchase. Strip these factors out and historical numbers are less attractive.
3. I think the market is saying on VRFBs "we'll buy in to the story when an at-scale plant has a bit of commercial track record". I agree this goes against what has happened to shares like IES, but it may be part of the story.
4. On the expansion of V output over coming years, it's probably another "show me don't tell me" from the market. I am fully confident that management can deliver here.
5. Mostly PIs, few IIs: this topic is well-understood by all of us.
6. On-going uncertainty over future listing geography, perhaps?
7. BMN's sector is listed on Stockopedia (and probably elsewhere therefore) as "Uranium". I believe this comes from Thomson Reuters. Can't be at all helpful! Probably get's filtered by certain prospective investors for this reason alone.

I know that much of this summary focuses on historical stuff, but that is where many analysts will start.

Finally, I'm in this for the long-haul and am happy to continue to be patient: it'll come good...we are lucky that we can buy into the things that more constrained IIs and more conservative or short-sighted PIs cannot.

Cue screams of abuse....

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-26/Attention-is-turning-to-platinum-as-gold-price-trades-below-2-000-an-ounce-Commerzbank.html

Thanks, Tiger: you always make informative, constructive posts. I’m grateful!

If gold and silver really take off (and I think they will, given the central banks’ psychopathic desire for Weimar Republic-style inflation) then I can’t see platinum not getting dragged along, at least a little.

On a corporate-specific level, Mr Prinsloo et al need to set out their strategy for the next two or three years (and I’m not referring to the endlessly debated dividend and buyback policy). The first few pages of the glossy should be particularly informative this year.

All the best!

OK, this link is a bit old: I can't easily find a more up-to-date forecast, but I doubt it's far off. Hybrids need cats, of course.
I suspect deficit in Pd has a bigger impact on SLP's price than the market share for pure EV (i.e. excluding hybrids) over the next five years at least. Happy to consider any constructive counter-arguments. Not sure on the effect of Rh in all this. Au and Ag will hopefully drag up Pt.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicles-to-be-35-of-global-new-car-sales-by-2040/

SLP is my biggest position at present. Please DYOR.

There’s often feisty interaction on these bulletin boards but this is one of the better ones, Bearess. If you haven’t checked out thebushveldperspective dot com yet (put together by one/some of the guys who post here) then that’s a good place to start.
All the best,

I agree, but clearly it isn’t enticing the Instits.
Anyone else any bright ideas as to why? I’m genuinely not sure if it isn’t (1) filtered out by reading historical performance (2) due to SA (3) due to it being AIM.
I notice on Stockopedia, it’s listed under the energy sub-sector of “uranium”: good grief. I questioned Stockopedia about this and they said it’s from the Thomson Reuters data and they haven’t got a category for vanadium. Stick some uranium in to strengthen your steel and see how you get on...

I guess I should’ve written net profit excluding exceptionals rather than operating profit.

I did try to stress operating profit, faramog.

I share the frustration. Institutionals will start sitting up a bit when the operating profit really gains traction. We all know last year’s number had a large exceptional item contributing most of the profit. The story is obviously great, but many of these guys will want to see sales related to VRFB and (at least equally importantly) an increase in the cash flow from existing operating activities. The IIs aren’t bought in to the story like we are: a drive-by of the historical numbers shows promise but isn’t exceptional...and that’s where they’ll start. And, of course, it’s AIM which they rightly are wary of. And it’s South Africa which doesn’t help (though of course some SA companies like SLP have thrived).

They’re going to be in “show me don’t tell me” mode until op profits increase...and once some revenue from electrolyte starts flowing then that could cause a significant re-rate.

This is my second biggest holding.

Repost from February. I think she extremely impressive here.
“I guess everyone here has watched it, but I thought this prez to be a good intro to the business.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ArhzvOGW03M”

Thank you, parm!

My 9 Feb summary is still relevant should you care to read...

Vindicates those who’ve been here a while. I’ve no intention to sell.

Newcomers: please read my post of 9 February for a summary. Also, there’re video interviews online with the CEO which I think shows management’s capability and integrity.

Deliberately insulting and offensive posts show a lack of respect for oneself well as for all readers on this board. Please raise your standards, everyone. Thanks.
BMN is my third biggest position: today's trading was encouraging.