Member Info for cautionyourblast

...and to you, JTD. I’ve enjoyed your posts and insight very much. I hope our paths cross again.

Carried.

19.21p: ...good grief.

I made a decent profit, but its still a lesson for me on being wary of AIM and AIM management teams....

Best of luck, Stuartv.

Thanks, George! Please come and run AMER if they takeover there fails (as I hope it will).

Cue, Nina Simone: “it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new liiiife...”

As a guy with a smallish position here and a very large one AMER, I couldn’t agree more AParky.

I doubt the messages on this board ever reach Mr Levine, but....keep the faith, Peter; many of us believe strongly in you!

This is a big move in the price given the news; but perhaps it’s to be expected given the enormous operational gearing of this one.

The gearing is why a big stone here or there won’t make too much difference as well. This share price is all about debt repayment and management of creditors and covenants. Of course, production and the market outlook play into that, but...it’s the debt.

That’s why for me it was a speculative, don’t-bet-the-farm sort of a buy. I expect to at least double, or lose the lot, in two or three years.

Assuming that this deal gets voted down (and that’s an extremely big assumption) the current board (with possible exception of John Wardle) will need to be ousted pronto if they fail to resign (which wouldn’t surprise me). There’re plenty of Oilers on this bb: does anyone have people in mind? For instance, does anyone know the extremely capable George Maxwell who is now out of his role at the sold-off Eland? Could he be persuaded to engage?

We need to consider this scenario, I believe: I’d welcome thoughts from those who are much better connected in this industry than I am.

It has all gone a bit quiet, so I’m assuming the Elcrest issue has gone away. Fat lady sings a week on Tuesday (17th). Well done to the many profit-makers. I wish I’d got in a bit earlier!

With this and AMER (angry grrrrr!) closing out imminently I’m looking for new homes for a decent chunk of change: should keep me busy on cold, dark nights...

Kind of you, N2M: thanks! Impressive profit here for you too: well done. See on the PPC and other boards. Onwards and upwards...

Thanks for your thoughtful posts, N2M: I’m sorry this has been such a difficult one for you and many others.
I hope to continue to read your thoughts on other shares in future. I’m also in PPC and will probably redeploy a bit of the AMER cash into SAVP.
Best of luck

I’ve just voted my 3.6m shares against.
I’m afraid if no counter-bid has yet been forthcoming, then I think such an action is now unlikely before the meeting. I’m hoping for an insufficient vote in favour, of course.

If anybody on the bulletin board attended the AGM, I for one would be most grateful for their observations...

I’m in Spain, otherwise I’d be there. Please can someone probe management on the covenants?
Likelihood of breach (and, if it is expected, when), bank relationships, consequences in such an event.
Thank you.

Hi Mathurin
If this gets defeated, then the Exec board resigns or will be dismissed at the AGM (where a motion may be called by 5% or more of shareholders) if not before. Of course there are risks with the future roadmap in these circumstances, but it’s clear that a great number of PIs (myself included) are prepared to take such risks given the apparent disparity between offer price and net asset value.

I wanted to mention also that you took a contrarian position to some other posters on this bulletin board during the summer and came in for quite a lot of personal and nasty abuse. The current position shows that all views, when made cogently and respectfully, are worth considering even when we disagree strongly with them. Well done to you.

Votes

CHoppy: ML’s email in his earlier message:

“I might add that several people have pledged on BB's and I would prefer an email confirmation, so I ask if you have pledged your support please confirm with a quick Email to Moneylender@gmx.com all I want is nubmers to make life easy. lol
”

Thank you, Moneylender. You’re doing a great job here.
100m shares is over 8% which means over 24% would have to be in favour to neutralise this (provided that everyone does indeed vote). Clearly some Institutionals will need to vote against too, but I imagine that some of them (those who are longer-term, value investors) will indeed vote against the current bid.

I can’t answer Margaret’s question but it raised another for me: can market-makers vote their shares in these circumstances? Surely they are conflicted.

I’m pretty certain it’s a special sits fund with an M&A strategy (as I mentioned yesterday).
So I agree, desoc

The RNS from management shows a steely determination for this apparent self-destruction: this was clear from the fatuous announcements about premium and, more importantly, the arrangements surrounding irrevocability of votes. The BoD and their appointees will now be corralling other Institutionals to join them, I suspect. We need some Institutionals to back the “no” vote. Or, of course, a counter-bid. I agree with the poster who implied that Oxy may well already have been appeased. But where is Sinopec or CNOOC or similar?

I am still bewildered as to why this apparent firesale was necessary. Even if the BoD walked, forewent any rights to future awards and left someone else to pick up the management, surely the upside for them personally would have been far superior given their holdings? Is this entire situation really based on the wishes of the controller of the largest shareholder?
So many unanswered questions.
I remain half bemused, half flabbergasted and half angry. And that’s a lot of halves....

MoneyLender has done us a great service by trying to gather the dissenting votes together. Please can everyone do him or her the courtesy of dropping an email to the address provided rather than simply posting here? It’s hard to follow this busy string all the time and ML is trying to help. Thanks.

Plenty of hedge funds and alternative UCITSs play these types of situations as a primary or major strategy. I imagine this is one on them.