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That’s a brilliant post, N2M, thank you. We need to encourage all views. The silly talk of “derampers” and similar nonsense is childish.

I now need a new home for a big chunk of cash!

Sometimes hedge funds or similar have an m&a strategy to buy into these sort of situations seeing it as a call option.

I didn’t really expect more than 30 pence, but I’m stunned.
Plenty of others will comment on the behaviour and capabilities of our BoD....

More importantly: if you were a Sinopec or CNOOC, wouldn’t you just ring up and say “here’s 20 pence”.

*you’re, not your. Sorry.

Patience please, ladies and gents.
If you’re getting doubtful (and I certainly am not!) then it’s a great time for you to refer back to the business fundamentals. Think about real value in terms of the worth of the portfolio versus the market cap. I ignore all this trade-by-trade stuff: it’s an irrelevance for an investor. If your a day trader, by all means try it, but you’ll probably disappoint yourself.

Steel yourselves, brothers and sisters...

Spot on, Margaret.

Great post, BBN; thank you.

It’s possible that a buyer has asked for more info (on CPO5, for instance) for which AMER must go to third parties (say ONGC, carrying on the hypothesis) to collect. Potential bidders may say that they won’t be able to bid in the absence of that info, or that their bid will be lower. AMER’s BoD will want as many bidders as possible (as we all do) and will have to (I think) provide the same written docs to all interested parties. With that in mind, it’s entirely plausible that there’s a delay whilst information is gathered (such as a 1P/2P/3P update). We might be waiting in to 2020, but a December update will come if that’s the case.

We’re all positioned anyway. This is the biggest thing in my portfolio: I'm relaxed and would remain so in circumstances that this falls through (though I think that’s remote). The bottom-up valuation is clearly well north of the current market cap.

COuld this piece of work play in to pricing the AMER deal? Far-fetched but not impossible. Very, very late too.

Thanks, CD. I too think a deal is likely to happen in this process. If it doesn’t, then someone is going to ride in on a book-build, I think (and you too, apparently).

Good post, JTD.
If there were only a weak bid which is then rejected by shareholders, what happens next? I assume it is either resignation or removal of the Board, possibly bar JW. Then a 12-18 (a guess) month period of lower share price and operational consolidation? Piecemeal sale of assets? Book-building at cheaper prices by a PE house or a major? A number of the above? None of the above?

This no-deal scenario (though unlikely, I think) and importantly its consequences, have been little discussed on the bulletin board. I wonder if anyone else has been thinking about it much...

Great post, Yorkshire Life: thank you.

Thanks 50cc and BumblingFool for your constructive posts last night.
My thought was that any PE-style buyer would not necessarily have the constraint of the timetable for returns (or “progress”) that goes with public scrutiny. Also they might have much freer access to low cost debt. These points might make piecemeal sales more viable for them than for AMER itself.

Anyway, I’m just sitting on my shares waiting...whether for 22p, 42p or no bid at all: I know not! Nothing posted on this board will make the slightest difference, of course!

Hi BF: I said “wouldn’t be great for us PIs”.

Here’s a wild idea (which wouldn’t be great for us PIs): Coller Capital/Michinoko purchases relatively cheaply (for lack of more attractive bids) then sells off the assets piecemeal for a nice profit?
Please persuade me why this is a non-starter. (I know you will.)

Interesting trades today: lots of buys....and a big seller (still).

You may well be right, rhodi. In a way, I hope it does go into next year with Family-Guy-style Peter-and-the-Chicken fight between rival bidders.

The last mgmt RNS talked of concluding in Q4. The Eland timetable (another one I’m in), which is the subject of a recommended takeover, gives a sense of what’s involved.
Plenty of M&A people on here will know the ins and outs much better than me.

Pure guess, but based on mgmt’s aspiration to conclude in Q4 and the admin needed to execute, I imagine they gave potential bidders until the end of October (last Thursday) or the end of last week (a day later). FWIW, I think this is likely to bleed into next year now (for cash in brokerage accounts, that is).
This is just a guess and it hardly matters. You’re either positioned now on this, or you’re not.

FFS

Maurel et Prom.

Quite right, N2M. Well said.