Member Info for cautionyourblast

Did anyone see Petra present this? I wonder if there was any more colour that they gave on the debt and covenants (which isn’t in the slides).

On reflection, it’s quite encouraging that they are sharing this debt stuff in the slides I suppose: good communication strategy ...which shows confidence.

Hope you’re right Oiltap. It’ll be interesting to see how capex develops in coming months. I suppose that’s the key discretionary here.

Thanks, RWD measured response appreciated.

I agree, Jay. I did mention that and was trying to base my analysis on what I read in the prezzo.
GLA (well, nearly all).

Oh dear, I’ve set them all off.

I may well be wrong, as I said: does look like a breach in H2 2020 on a ceteris paribus basis though doesn’t it? As I mentioned, if capex can be reduced then perhaps that saving and the FCF you rightly mention can go to reducing the debt burden and avoiding any breach of covenant.
I wouldn’t bet the farm in this one but would be tempted to pick up some more if diamond prices hold up.

Covenant breach would perhaps come in H2 2020 if I’m reading it right and things are ceteris paribus. Maybe capex reduction can ameliorate.

I’m long btw, but hardly with a big position.

*capex not caped.

Thank you RWD.
So, if I’m reading this correctly, covenants on debt to EBITDA look likely to be broken in the coming months and some fairly significant interest ratchets on the debt have already kicked in. Shareholders seem to be working solely for bond holders right now.

Good to see some future caped is discretionary should diamond prices continue to fall.

I’m new to this share and wasn’t at the prez, so please do correct me if I have misinterpreted. But this looks disquieting to me, I’m afraid.

Great post, JTD. Begs the follow comment/question: “why sell yourself cheap when you can farm out all the operations to bigger players, keeping a significant interest in operations, and an OBA, cut the overhead and let the big boys get on with it?”
Sure, you lose control but you (should) get much more value if you’re patient. Does this not make a sensible and viable alternative?

Hahaaaa! Epic post: thank you, rhodi
:-)

Oops: sorry, BoD! Just try to get us, and yourselves, across the line despite the CPO-5 fun and games.

Haha! Or any civility judging by his performance at the AGM.
:-)

When (or indeed after what volume has been fulfilled) does the hedge expire, Mr Ni? Any idea. Thanks.

...to Bogotá and case out the Amer joint.
Deal(s) will probably then be done in Calgary, Houston and/or Delhi.
I’m b*ggered if I’m going to India...

Looks well worth a punt-and-hold (as I’ve done this week). The danger is surely a continuing deterioration in the wider diamond market. Their strategy of going after the bigger stones provides some protection to that, but not a great deal I’d wager.
I’ll be buying more if it continues to sink but I have to educate myself a bit more about how this market works: opaquely, one suspects...

I’m on a couple of other boards (where I’m also invested) and the chit-chat is properly hectic.

Look at Eland though:
Trailing 12 months PE of 5.3 projected PE on 2019 results of 4.2, 2020 under 3: chicken oriental.
Price below book value.
Little debt.
Growth assets.
Quality management.

This coiled spring is hiding in plain sight.

DYOR, but I’m tempted to buy more (despite my fairly large position and being long up the wazoo in AMER, another oiler).

...all you highly intelligent people can do better than this recent exchange.
Can we please stop with the Titania McGraths? Thanks.

Just bought some more: couldn’t resist.

Hello Riddler, BTW (I didn’t want to be left out...)

Guys:
Take a look at the short interest reported. Now compare with the top shareholders. Surely momentum from here is driven far more from long shareholder trades rather than shorters’ trades because short interest is pretty low here.

If Colonel Drake is right in his 08:33 post today (and he usually is in his excellent posts on the AMER board) then the shorters (the few that they are) have had their tea and biscuits already.

Focus on the direction of the existing large shareholders if you are interested in what will primarily drive short-term momentum.