Member Info for cautionyourblast

Latest RNS v interesting: AXA/ M&P...

Thanks for the comments. The more I think about this; some sort of quasi-MBO on the cheap does look like a significant possibility. Mood music at AGM between shareholders and BoD was far more Holst’s Mars than Jupiter; Giles and John must’ve considered this idea, surely?

I should caveat this by saying that I have zero evidence to back it up, but....

Is it possible that management are talking with private equity on a take out that would be supported by a few key institutional investors (perhaps Michi). NewCo would then continue to be managed by the same team; the existing directors take higher percentage holdings in NewCo; they lose all of the public scrutiny and can really sweat the assets for a bigger benefit for themselves, or sell them off piecemeal. Possible that they are getting out of Ironveld to clear the decks to solely concentrate on NewCo (could be a stipulation from any new PE backer).

Is this far-fetched? I’d welcome any constructive views.

Hi Gary
I enjoy your posts: they often add a bit of well-placed balance.
On the OBA, I meant that we’ve heard nothing re throughput after the nice pics of lorries in the AGM prez. The BoD could include a comment in their next op update. As many people have posted here, the OBA is very valuable. I would like to know the latest on what is going on wrt increasing capacity on the Ecuadorean side, the process of building a deal book for offtakes from third parties and anything which materially impacts revenues here. Doesn’t have to be war-and-peace. I just think an update on how things are going at this early stage would help to highlight potential long-term value. Some bidders will of course be well aware; some maybe less so; no harm in reminding them (and all of us) of the inherent value as part of the next op update. Who knows, perhaps the data room is “an ocean of information”!

I completely agree too, JTD.

Some posters on this board, and the one on ADVFN, have become somewhat soap operatic in in the 9-10 days since the review was announced: this detracts from the many quality posts.

One request, BoD: OBA update, please. Air silence on that topic may make people suspect something has gone awry re third party arrangements...

On Michinoko, I’m relaying what others have written on this bb, by the way: I don’t have any specific knowledge on Michinoko as an entity.

Agree the sentiment on this string. Accountability on cost management is also a significant concern for me and it gets v little mention on this bb. Trailing PE is sky high and thus will be a first filter for many IIs.

Giles and Nick are not going to change. John is a geologist much more than a CEO...I think we run a key man risk there as I’ve mentioned before.
Others here have posted that Michinoko votes with Giles which is why the AGM resolutions got passed despite very strong negative sentiment from many PIs.

The NEDs need to step in and take action. Could we bring and ordinary resolution for the NEDs to undertake an independent strategic review of Exec governance? Surely it would be hard to vote down. Might cost some money and mandate would need to be set strictly by NEDs....I can’t think of another route...

Feedback most welcome.

JW

Just sayin'.....

I spoke to lots of PIs at the AGM. I didn’t find one who was supportive of either Clarke or Harrison.
I suppose it takes a lot of PI dissent to vote out the directors’ own votes, Michi and (one assumes) at least some supportive IIs.

Thank you very much, ab76; I was struggling to figure it out. It’s a shame.

I’m keen to see new exec directors replace two of the three existing ones...

Haha! Thanks GA. From my experience with CH, I doubt they’ll care either!

This continues to annoy me.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/46/section/341
Why does this not seem to apply? I assume a poll was declared as there was no show of hands: show of hands wasn't even discussed. Text lifted from the link is below.

341Results of poll to be made available on website

(1)Where a poll is taken at a general meeting of a quoted company [F1that is not a traded company], the company must ensure that the following information is made available on a website—

(a)the date of the meeting,

(b)the text of the resolution or, as the case may be, a description of the subject matter of the poll,

(c)the number of votes cast in favour, and

(d)the number of votes cast against.

[F2(1A)Where a poll is taken at a general meeting of a traded company, the company must ensure that the following information is made available on a website—

(a)the date of the meeting,

(b)the text of the resolution or, as the case may be, a description of the subject matter of the poll,

(c)the number of votes validly cast,

(d)the proportion of the company's issued share capital (determined at the time at which the right to vote is determined under section 360B(2)) represented by those votes,

(e)the number of votes cast in favour,

(f)the number of votes cast against, and

(g)the number of abstentions (if counted).

(1B)A traded company must comply with subsection (1A) by—

(a)the end of 16 days beginning with the day of the meeting, or

(b)if later, the end of the first working day after the day on which the result of the poll is declared.]

*quite, not quiet!

Thanks, Jux.

I had assumed with Sol that the light was barely worth the candle, but we'll find out soon enough I suppose.

Well quiet, threeputt!

Given the recent performance of my portfolio, I should change my BB handle to fiveputt....

...please educate me. What on earth causes an intra-day move like this on (apparently) no news and reasonably insignificant volume? I'm a financial markets guy by background and I really have no idea on this issue.

Could a market-maker be out of stock (seems unlikely with recent seemingly-endless sales? Is it more likely that a big seller (or sellers) have finished their sales project(s) for the time being?

Company-specific news seems unlikely as one assumes that the company would be forced to release an announcement via usual channels.

I am not implying any of these things, btw: just trying to figure out what's going on.

All very odd...

Perhaps my guesses have too much Walter Mitty in them.

I assume the conversation between Oxy Andina mgmt and Oxy HQ goes something like this:
“See what the seismics turn out like, then run the numbers through the risk model. If it looks ok we can try to pick up the company but we can’t pay more than a 75% [I imagine] premium to the pre-bid SP [policy/appearance/rep risk management].”

If you colour in the Putumayo map with an Oxy-coloured crayon and include Put8, then Oxy seems to be acquiring by stealth anyway!

I hadn’t thought of it like that, Margaret: it’s a bit of encouragement!

...errr, volume...
It’s all about drill results now for AMER: nothing else, in my opinion.
Or a takeover, of course.