Member Info for cautionyourblast

Dipped my toe in here for a debut buy yesterday.
Lots of chatter on this board about shorts...but there aren’t that many left in excess of 0.5% if we’re to believe the shorttracker link which JoeH kindly posted. I’m more interested in the direction of flow of the longs here. Morningstar link is here: not sure how up to date it is.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/pdl/ownership
Of course we see RNSs when thresholds are breached.

The only game in town for the new(ish) CEO is get the debt down as far as poss before the 2022 loan note maturity. Interest and fees on debt facilities and loans in last year’s accounts was nearly USD80m. I suspect that in 2022, this company is either worth several times current price or it has been bought for a fraction of current price with noteholders becoming major equity (following breach of covenants). Time will tell!

Tempted to add a bit more: this one’s a punt for me really.

Margaret’s post at 9.35am is bang on, I think. Worth dwelling on for any shareholders who aren’t yet full on AMER (or haven’t yet bought).

I imagine there was no financial or legal barrier to entering the data room beyond being (a) vaguely credible as a buyer; (b) happy to become an insider; (c) happy to sign an NDA; and (d) curiously interested in an odd Colombian upstreamer with no debt and a pile of shareholders who think that the current exec management team is named Bert, Ernie and the Cookiemonster.

With that in mind, having numerous interested parties is not necessarily going to lead to numerous bids.

That said, of course the market cap at 17p significantly undervalues the sum of the parts. I just wanted a quick trip to Reality Checkpoint (Parker’s Piece).

Just sayin’....

Welcome to Bollywood, baby!

I wonder how many restatements Harrison will make in the interims this time for previous misstatements...

Thanks pickedpeck and bigsmoke for fascinating and thought-provoking posts today: appreciated.

I wonder how many of these we’ll get? Maybe (and hopefully!) none but the cynic in me decided to make an excuses bingo card. I’m sure you’ll have your own additions!

Rains
ONGC timetable outside our control
Only one rig in CPO5
Consulta previa all taking longer
Oxy preliminary assessment takes time (we’re working closely with them, blah, blah)
Local indigenous issues
Access delayed due to remapping terrain
Trucks to OBA held up due to technical or bureaucratic issues (on Colombian or Ecuadorean side)
Management focussed on sales process
Platanillo tech issues
Power outages
Cuddly toy
Electric teasmade
etc.

Soap operatic. Sigh....
:-)

Thanks, Bazzaman, for the date 12 Sep on the interims (wherever you got it from!)

If management’s track record holds true, I suspect the interims will be a massive non-event. With a load of info missing on the key assets. There’ll be some “sit tight” message once again.

The thing I’ve pondered most on this in the last couple of weeks is what it takes to move the price permanently back to 12-13p. Even if bids are not forthcoming or too low, then surely this process has at least made clear that any price in the teens or lower would significantly undervalue the sum of the parts. So isn’t there something of a floor around this point? Assuming AMER soldiers on as an independent, at least we have Oxy and (yeah, I know, I know, they’re slow) ONGC holding the monkey wrenches on quite a lot of the gear. Unless everything comes up dry, value surely builds even without a takeover.

One assumes that if the deal doesn’t go through then Clarke and Harrison are toast which would at least be some cause for celebration. At least for me.

So many posters here are more informed and cleverer than me. Please educate me, team.

Thanks BBN; your spud analysis looks sounds to me. I think I suggested Indico 2 results might come In early October at best; looks like your more detailed insight could bring us to a similar date.

As a PI, it’s always guesswork with Amer!

Oh dear; I don’t seem to be able to get anything right! Perhaps I should sell up to give the share price an undoubted immediate boost...

Last year:
Notice given - 24 August
Released - 25 September.

It’ll be fascinating to see how they word things this year if we are absent a meaningful bid at that stage.

If the “For Sale” sign hadn’t been stuck up, the current share price, frankly, would look even more crackers than it currently does.

Calao drill result announced 26 March (having spudded 1Feb).

Sol logging operations completion announced 17 June (including statement that the rig moves to indy2 once testing completed). I can’t find any announcement of a spud date.

Sol testing completion announced 29 July (and rig still appeared to be on-site in process of demobilisation at the time.

I’m assuming the Meccano set has now reached Indy2 and is being assembled. Assuming rain doesn’t completely stop play, I suppose drill results come to market in the first week in October at the very earliest. If ONGC are turning up, of course: big if.

As ever, we are piecing together the info like Scooby and Shaggy.

I suspect that the “big cheeses” who sit on the boards or credit committees or investment committees of potential buyers may be currently in St Tropez. Perhaps more may happen once they’re back and have packed Torquil and Jocasta back off to boarding school. Agree, Mr Big....hold...

I was just thinking the same, Mr big.
I generally think of myself as a reasonably “sophisticated” investor, to use the old FCA terminology. However, I have to revisit this assumption as I simply cannot understand why there hasn’t been buying pressure to force the price upwards, even if only from PIs. AMER seems like a call option trading on zero (or perhaps even negative) premium. I really don’t get it.

(There again, Bunds trade at minus 70 bps, so apparently everyone’s drinking the koolaid...)

Yikes! Thanks for flagging.

Thanks, leas.
I’ve got less than £85k in cash but securities (in nominee accounts) with a total value of well over £1m and many individually well over £85k. I *think* I’m ok. I’m sure many other here are in a similar position.

Not sure I follow your capital gains point but will follow the link you suggest: thanks again. I do hope your broker situation gets sorted ASAP.

Apologies to all as I know this is well off-topic but it is highly relevant to many of us.

I was the Interactive Investor guy, Jux. For now, it looks like Alliance Trust is maintaining independence from the Interactive operation though of course that makes no odds in the event of failure.

Could someone please reassure me that, in the event of broker failure, any shares held via nominee accounts (i.e. all off them) cannot be sequestered as part of a process of administration/receivership/bankruptcy? So the only loss portion is the cash above the FCA threshold, or so I believe. Clearly leas’ point about not being able to trade what you hold is also quite right, of course.

Thanks.

Sounds about right, Awstin. Still, that gives a good opportunity to buy some more for anyone who doesn’t feel they as yet hold enough.

You have my sympathy, leas. Must be very frustrating. I’m with Alliance Trust Savings (now interactive investor). The trade team on the desk (based in Dundee) are always first class, but the online platform is poor, IMO.

One month today since the sales process began. I suppose it is possible that potential bidders are waiting on one another to start the ball rolling (if one ignores M&P’s 17p) and then to see management’s response before deciding when to play their respective hands. I also suppose it is possible no one wants to bid, but seems unlikely given what we all know and which has been posted many times here.

I am very frustrated at the lack of any operational update: OBA third party oil and Indico 2 particularly, but also Oxy progress and timetable. Perhaps mgmt has decided that it is irrelevant to update the market as the insiders in the dataroom will get their private q&as on such matters: ah well.