Member Info for cautionyourblast

Can anyone please remind me of the likely incremental profit (or free cash flow) per tonne to Bushveld based on an increase of $1/kgV (and based on current output, assuming no battery-related revenue).

Also, are there any industry experts on the bulletin board who have a sense of cost, IRR or payback period (or other similar metrics) for current small/medium/large VRFBs? Bluntly, does the maths work?

Finally, does anyone have a sense of the likely price tag associated with Lemur?

All questions and no answers from me, I’m aware. But these issues seem, erm, rather important.

Best wishes

Too late, stoodio:
“Sylvia's mother says, 'Sylvia's marryin'
A fella down Galveston way'”

Very unloved, good quality share here: lost in all the market noise of commodities and “pent up demand”.

But wait...

RAI will post passable numbers for 2021 and there’ll be RNSs on contract wins yet to come. I suspect they may win work from energy and commodity players who are getting their pitchforks dusted off.

I wouldn’t be the least surprised to come back here in autumn 2022 to find the price much nearer £1.

Apparently very high voltage, low current DC lines have much less transmission loss than lower voltage, higher current AC lines. It looks from the map like it’s around 1,000km from Calabar to Togo; I guess, after researching a bit, it must be doable.

Looking at the cumulative revenue graph from the latest presentation, Calabar is already a very big chunk of the guaranteed revenues. Exciting times...

Thanks TIL, that answers one of my questions: messages crossed.

Thank you, ZENGAS, for this very interesting post.
I'm probably being stupid here, but surely there's no way the Calabar plant would supply Togo? Unless there are transmission lines all the way across southern Nigeria and then through Benin? Even if so, I would imagine that the loss of power through transmission would be huge.

I bet one of you clever people knows.

Also, do we know how much of its current capacity the Calabar plant is using?

I'm afraid that Calabar always reminds me of Carry On Up The Khyber where Kenneth Williams was "The Kharsi of Kalibar". Schoolboy humour...

So funny, thank Velo! Chuckles in north London.
And I hope stoodio is right in the next few days...

Out on the 22nd. I’m going to guess that the special dividend (about which I’m pretty ambivalent) *may* just get paid this side of 5/6 April.

SLP continues to look significantly undervalued. One wonders where it goes if Pt really begins to gather hydrogen cell momentum (or even perhaps inflation-fear momentum).

Good morning, everyone.

This website may be of interest.
Best wishes, all
CYB

https://auctusmetals.com/platinum-flash-news-worst-bout-of-electricity-shutdown-in-south-africa-forecast/

Some quotes and précis (in no particular order):
EV adoption to increase exponentially.
“China is replacing battery electric buses with fuel cell buses”.
Pt supply cliff crisis not yet envisaged via demand from hydrogen.
New demand sectors such as HFC being developed in part by miners, partly to improve their own carbon footprint. (e.g. HFC trucks to replace diesel trucks).
Analyst likes Pt, Rh, Ir and metals in vogue in light of ESG in general. Investors are struggling to take a long-term view.
If you’re pro-EVs you don’t have to be bearish PGMs given ESG issues and new stringent emissions regulations.
Pt currently in surplus but expected to shift to big deficit by 2025 (supply-side constraint). Marginal ounces require higher basket price.

..and mentions environmentally-essential metals...but not Li.

... gets in his Vametco bargain as an ESG point!

Fair point dipln....
I’m going to go and remind myself about the asset as many people seem quite positive on here.
Best wishes

BMN is an obvious potential buyer here; they should call Fortune Mojapelo. I don’t hold IRON: I’m familiar with a number of the NEDs and major shareholders as they ran and owned a good chunk of Amerisur (in which I held a decent amount) before it was sold to Geopark. Not sure about Eales, but I do know that RBW has made great strides since he left; that may not necessarily be a reflection on him though. I don’t hold here, but tempted to make a small purchase.
One issue here is that many of the major shareholders are so well off that this company is unlikely to be of great importance to them.
This message isn’t supposed to be positive or negative particularly; just thought it might be of interest.
Best of luck, all.

That's rather why I'm trying to work it out!

I don't think anyone responded on this, so I'm assuming that I'm not far off (or the rest of you have as much of a scooby as I do). My finger-in-the-air guess is therefore that Topco indirectly owns about 30% of Enerox GmbH.

With all the talk of VRFBs (especially the smaller ones) today, I got curious about the current BMN holding in Enerox GmbH.

The 3 Aug 2020 RNS says: "[BMN] announces the acquisition by Enerox Holdings Limited ("EHL") of a further 65.1 per cent of the share capital of Enerox GmbH ("Enerox"), as anticipated in its announcement on 19 December 2019. EHL is a newly incorporated investment vehicle formed by a consortium of investors, including Bushveld Energy Limited ("BEL") (an 84 per cent owned subsidiary of Bushveld)" and "BEL intends to own a minority interest in EHL". The 19 Dec 2019 says "the members of the Consortium have acquired, in equal proportions, 24.9 per cent of the issued share capital of Enerox". BEL owns 50% of EHL according to the 2019 financials. So it appears that BMN owns at least 27.342% (65.1% x 84% x 50%) of Enerox GmbH. I can't work out how much BMN initially bought since I don't know how many members are in the consortium, so I can't work out the "equal proportion". I'm guessing we have something at or over 30% but less than 37.8% ((24.9+65.1)% x 84% x 50%). It's irritatingly unclear to me. Come on, Bushies: one of you will know exactly...or tell me I've got it completely wrong.

I came to post exactly the same thing, Tier. Same is true of BMN.

I expect both to be much higher at year end, given business growth and fundamentals.

Best wishes

ZENGAS: thank you for this top-notch update. Appreciated.

Hi Cruicky
Excellent questions on Niger. I *think* they are reluctant to use a big chunk of the cash generated from the Nigeria business to develop Niger until the debt pile is a bit more under control and, perhaps more importantly, I believe they want each section of the business to “stand on its own two feet”. I’m also guessing that there may also be questions of logistics and stuff with the Niger government to deal with (maybe also the Chinese, even?) and simply management bandwidth.

All that said, I’m rather surprised that the SP has fallen off so much since the positive move after yesterday’s RNS. I thought it was a great update.

I have bought another 100k this morning: I believe the patient will be well-rewarded here.

Best wishes
CYB