Member Info for cautionyourblast

In terms of fab plants and therefore PGM market context, some of you may be interested in the comments of this absolute unit of a German gentleman:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/08/25/dresden-is-now-the-number-one-place-for-production-chips-in-europe-expert-says.html?__source=iosappshare%7Cnet.whatsapp.WhatsApp.ShareExtension

Charts....good grief. This is a small cap on AIM.
SMH.

A few comments on this board concerning year end results recently.
If you want to know what the unaudited 20/21 numbers are, just go to the quarterly RNSs and then pick up a calculator. Not too hard to work out the profit after tax for the year, absent any late provisions or adjustments.

As for current price weakness, it’s all about Rh and that, in turn, is all about cars and that, in turn, is all about chips (and that, in turn, is at least a bit about Delta variant). I think it’s temporary: if you do too, hold or buy; if you think it’s permanent and likely to continue, then sell.

I added a bit today to get back to a round number. Even at Rh USD17k, it’s hardly a demanding multiple (understatement...)

For good PGM historical prices and the deep dive report, go to Matthey’s site; I’ve posted it here before.

DYOR, as ever. I could be completely wrong; a troll; a dreadful ramper; a dreadful deramper; the large seller who is about to clear; a hedge-fund stooge; a guy spotting a double-top head-and-shoulders pattern; etc. Out of all these, me being completely wrong is probably most likely....

Kitco quotes 15,100 bid 17,100 offered at close: down 1,900.

SLP price may be under pressure until chip / car production situation ameliorates.

Sanguine investors (you know who you are) will look through this temporary issue.

Q4 RNS:

Cash balance of $101.1 million (Q3: $102.1 million) after payment of the second provisional income tax and royalty tax charges.

Following up on Sotolo’s comments, there’re a few articles like this concerning a number of companies. Possibly naïve of me, but one imagines that this sorts itself out in the coming months.

https://www.cips.org/supply-management/news/2021/august/toyota-cuts-production-by-40-due-to-chip-shortage/

I should point out that I did my PE calc’s on an ex-cash basis.

So (just to clarify) taking the current cash pile and current output at current prices, we have full payback by summer 2024 on a purchase today.

“It’s dreamy weather...”

Absolutely, ic152

Rock solid balance sheet; high barriers to entry; experienced management team; monster FCF; stupidly undemanding forward PE (at current basket price).

People: please concentrate on the fundamentals here (and on all your analysis in the small cap space).

The only other London listing where I can as positive as I am here is SAVE.

I make the 2020/21 PE about 2.75 at the current price.

Today’s basket price can’t be too far off the 2020/21 weighted average (looking at http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-charts).

So here we have a financially sound, well-managed company which will have returned its total market cap by summer 2024 assuming output stays constant and prices stay around current levels.

More mental than a Tom Waits album...

I could've written that post, cjg: I have President Energy buyer's regret. So much so that I'm thinking of putting my shareholding on a lead and taking it for a walk in the park every day, it's such a dog.

I remember looking in some detail at Hurricane (when it was about 45 pence) for a while but thankfully didn't take the plunge into that particular disaster: I feel for the shareholders there.

Amerisur and Eland both worked out though: they got bought!

Knuttie's comment at 20:53 on Friday was bang on. The voting for each resolution was far from positive. I know we have a lot of PIs in Bushveld, but it appears that a decent proportion of the IIs must also have voted against a number of the resolutions.

FM's manner in his recent presentations has also changed, I think. I suspect that the board have taken some fairly direct feedback from a number of bigger investors (just a guess).

There's a lot to look forward to here, but the next twelve months are make-or-break for me and perhaps rather a lot of other investors, IIs included. Like a number of other posters, I am bemused as to the mismatch between BMN's valuation and those of Largo and FAR (though the comparison is of course a lot of art and a little science) but the electrolyte plant, cost-cutting and VRFB awareness in the wider market all need to start to feed into the SP for me. Of course the V price plays a big part too. Time will tell.

...can people use the filter function rather than clogging up the board with drivel.
Thanks

Thank you, toptiger: kind of you. I shall take a look.

Thank you for sharing this, BlackWolf.

Simon Thompson has just done the analysis which I was about to do.
This is a cogent fact-based analysis that says "calm down, dears..."

If anyone has similarly attractive cash-generative opportunities in the commodities space which have equally rock-solid balance sheets and management teams, I would love to hear about them (really, I mean it!)

I continue to hold SLP as my biggest position.

Best wishes to all sensible posters here.

...where are you? I miss your excellent posts.

JWSM (and others)

This question of excess cash keeps coming up.

Read Stuart Murray’s excellent (and drily witty) statement in last year’s glossy; specifically pages 8 and 9.

I was happy to be quoted a couple of times.

Thanks, nimrod, for these very interesting and encouraging articles: very much appreciated. Well worth a read.

Busy day for filtering again.

I am looking forward to the Q4 numbers being published next week and comments from Jaco. We can then update our fundamental analysis, future projections and our investment positions accordingly (if necessary).

Great post, ic152.

If you’re like me, you’re sitting tight on your investment due to:
1. Solid fundamental outlook for PGMs
2. Sound management
3. Large cash pile
4. Extremely low historic PE and forward PE based on current basket price
5. Stable asset base

Sadly, I’ve had to start using the filter function on this board.