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Thanks for the insight, Rocky.

I understand that AK said at the AGM that the exchange had forced us to remain suspended from trading and it wasn't what the company wanted (though of course I couldn't dial in due to the comms shambles that ensued, yet again).

If it's the exchange and/or nomad insisting on the continued suspension, what would change their mind now, I wonder? Effluxion of time? Surely they just go by their rulebook. Let's say that they do now direct the company to resume trading, are they then forcing SAVE to walk away from the potential deal? Upon what grounds? It seems different for the tiddler Wildcat apparently.

Not much of this is making much sense to me.

You're right that the deal is super-high-risk of course. But if oil is flowing and we secure the concession for a suitable price, then the payback period might well be rather short.

One thing is clear, management still think the fish is on the line and worth the effort to reel in. And Knott and Clarkson are hardly naïve.

The lack of disclosure of the contractual justification for continued suspension is poor. The Petronas SPA has fallen away, so on what grounds does the company remain in the clubhouse?

I don't expect resolution for some months.

Possible conditions precedent (to any deal, with either Savannah or a third party)

1. BAU resumes all the way to Port Sudan for exports. The Radio Tamazuj article I posted yesterday suggested that this is a three-month process.

2. Bringing the hold-out groups into the Kenyan-brokered peace agreement.

3. WB and IMF agreeing a relief package.

Fun fact of the day: the concessions expire at the end of 2026. So that'll need sorting too.

I'd be surprised if we're trading before Easter. I do hope I wrong. But.... we should expect RNSs on CPF and possibly Stubb Creek.

AIM companies don't give a continental about their PIs: we're no exception.

Thanks, TIL.

This article gives further insight on oil evacuation:

https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/revealed-juba-struck-deal-with-rsf-on-crude-oil-flow

So...

Suspended on the basis of an MoU...

Like the one Wildcat has got...

I'm rarely lost for words, but...

Regardless of that and without irony, thanks, Rocky, for being so kind to share this.

Cant see this doing us any favours...

https://x.com/SudansPost/status/1851897917704941699

Dear Andrew and Nick

How do your secure payment for renewables once commissioned? It's fairly easy with oil & gas: you just turn the taps off. What about electrons?

Sincerely

Your Private Equity investors

Https://www.sudanspost.com/south-sudan-delegation-arrives-in-nairobi-for-consultations-on-tumaini-initiative/?fbclid=IwY2xjawGNsf9leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHb3Jms-OHNzfmSQMJPOT0hvso7Ldg_nmpaVM5fji5yW-u2eSFH-7tEUvYA_aem_fyjEvZb2f8ax7Ye2hUMR7w

Interesting to see the oil minister there in Nairobi (second from the right). I do not expect a resolution of the Petronas concessions this year. I think this process on peace and stability is a precursor to international funding and that, in turn, probably needs concluding before Nilepet can sell its now-rather-large position. I expect suspension into 2025 (Stewie will have a field day).

Still, its not all bad: in the meantime, the CPF will be commissioned, the ICC will edge towards a pronouncement and (hopefully) the Stubb Creek 50% will land on the Savannah balance sheet.

Hi COP

I am reasonably bullish PGMs as the ridiculous hype on EVs is now beginning to fade significantly outside China (where they want to get away from foreign oil exposure, of course). Worth noting that hybrids still need just as much PGMs as ICEs. What the hell do I know, though? Read Matthey's analysis of the market if you want detailed analysis of outlook: available online for free.

On a cautionary note, this is SA which seems always to be dallying with failed-statehood; another round of wage negotiation cant be that far away for SLP either. And Eskom is criminally useless of course. I'm not massively bullish on the chrome venture either tbh: the numbers don't look particularly attractive to me and the necessar capex will of course deplete the cash pile somewhat (as the company has clearly pointed out).

I do like management here. Jaco and Lewanne are careful, experienced, honest, straightforward.

For anyone wanting a leveraged play on Pt and Rh, this is probably a decent buy; not wildly over-valued as it was a year ago, but still not particularly cheap.

I'm not buying for now, but continue to watch closely.

A solid set of numbers. I reckon SLP trades just a few pennies over FV now.

...more seriously, I agree that we're still some distance from a resolution on the former Petronas assets.

The WB/IMF processes will likely need to conclude first or at the same time; Kiir seems embattled and preoccupied with potential ouster; and the pipeline has to get flowing again. Quite where the Indians and Chinese stand in all this, I don't know.

Also, whoever gets the Petronas assets will need to provide staff: those employed by Petronas will have been redeployed or laid off. Some may have stayed with the JOCs under another arrangement perhaps, though they need to be paid...by whom, I wonder.

....Brian is Andrew Knott and we are all Stewie.

Hehe: thanks, Streets!

For Savannah with this video, Brian is

Is this how it might work? Does anyone on the BB have experience of such matters?

WBIMF: So you'd like some money?

FinMin: Yes, please.

WBIMF: How are you going to pay it back?

FinMin: Oil revenue. The pipeline blockage is fixed.

WBIMF: That's good. Who is running the oil assets?

FinMin: Some SOEs from China and India. Errrrr, and us.

WBIMF: Is your share small and passive or significant and involving you supplying expertise, capex and opex?

FinMin: The latter.

WBIMF: Do you have the requisite experience or sufficient funds?

FinMin: Errrr, no.

WBIMF: We'd rather like you to resolve this issue before we wire you the funds.

FinMin: I'll have a word upstairs...

WBIMF: How do you provide

Https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/tnla-absence-of-finance-minister-delaying-tabling-of-fiscal-budget

Https://sudantribune.com/article292300/

*Eurotunnel, not Eurostar. Never mind, you get the idea...

Https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1848070391417516117

Similar news on SS pipeline repair completion.

My thoughts:

Nilepet do not have the money for their share of opex or capex. Some sort of corporate event is therefore likely. The side-lined oil minister, Puot Kang Chol, has been *very* quiet. Kiir seems preoccupied with not being ousted. Oil revenue may well be a significant part of the power struggle in Juba. Nilepet won't keep all of the Petronas stake, even if Savannah doesn't get it. We may get a delay of a few more weeks before the final denouement.

Of course, if we're still suspended come the AGM, a Eurostar-style bunfight will ensue: what fun!

Https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1847280996489494991

Another new boss at Nilepet.

Hi TIL, you may well be right for those fields where they're already a participant. I seem to recall that one of the fields is only ONGC and Nilepet now that Petronas are out: I assume that it'd be harder for CNPC to step straight in there (though hardly impossible).

I continue to wonder upon what grounds we remain suspended. I believe it's at the behest of the exchange, not the company.

Https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1847194847611900349

It may be Walter Mitty of me, but I suspect resumption of pumping to Port Sudan may coincide with a resolution of the changes to ownership of the JOCs.