Member Info for cautionyourblast

Https://x.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1839238520134602962

One wonders what's going on in the Bank Street Deathstar. I'm tempted to go over and lock them all in the building without food and water until the shares are relisted.

Hopefully TTK won't have me arrested for this post.

Https://x.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1836079661450711318

Interesting sole comment on the latest x post.

Https://x.com/ssemtv/status/1835712908182925705

Rare sighting of the name Kiir and the word oil in the same article.

Reality is finally setting in here. Bangrak and I have been calling this for well over a year.

Jaco and Lewanne presented well yesterday, though you could sense he was very nervous at the start: they are clearly decent people with integrity.

The chromite ore JV does not appear particularly financially attractive to me from the presentation. If it's a ten year project, the significant capex will need depreciating and that will eat into the estimated gross profit. Obviously the cash pile gets pretty significantly eroded by capex in the coming months.

Many of those who've been investing for dividends and hope in a basket price bounce are hopefully finally assessing the fundamentals. South Africa is a tricky place as well.

Decent management team. Still over-valued assets. Stays on the watchlist. Updates on the JV project this year will be interesting.

I do think there's a decent chance of some basket price recovery given that reports of the death of ICE cars have been rather exaggerated.

I've been calling fair value at around 42 pence per share for months. Finally the share price is beginning to reflect reality but still has some distance to fall.

Some people have been far too focused on dividends here rather than fundamentals.

I might buy back in modestly under 40 pence (based on current basket prices. I think it's possible that some market volatility could throw up a buying opportunity in the foreseeable future.... but we're not there yet.

Https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1831227361309675970?s=48&t=Lo0qH_1sjMOWHIbbnMFxMA

Https://x.com/ssemtv/status/1831000684105212303

Https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1830876967731650642

Carrying on the devil's advocate theme, the ESG story if oil were to be trucked could be "helping to ensure that South Sudan still has some revenues".

The whole thing now looks a basketcase, of course. I'd be flabbergasted if Savannah secured a deal...and it would have to be of the pay-as-you-go variety. We're all speculating on the outcome, but it's pretty pointless; none of us have the foggiest what's going on.

I expect (and hope for) a re-list in the next few weeks and heads down in Nigeria and Niger. We can at least expect and update on a unit-by-unit basis. I'd expect this to come with the interims.

Whatever the SS outcome, all the seditious talk around Andrew Knott's position (both here and on advfn) is a bit naive. Good luck finding a candidate who could secure different outcomes. Most people wouldn't want to upsticks and move to Abuja, travel around Africa and most wouldn't have the stamina and tenacity. I've talked before about the need for a proper and prompt review of strategy when the SS dust settles: that is essential. Not much has gone right for us, so what needs changing? Not the CEO, in my opinion.

Https://sudantribune.com/article290166/

I think we'll be trading again very soon and focus of management needs to be on progressing operational matters within its control.

Https://x.com/ssemtv/status/1829849102017761660

Https://www.sudanspost.com/petronas-sues-south-sudan-over-1-25-billion-asset-seizure/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0xwyd0WLAhyXpZ9dWDBkmTzM4s8XABwQNZ6ob6V2-E-qe-6CSOiFp2R3g_aem_S5DGC5wJF0G0z75oUZIdXQ&ai=

Hi Sorted. The Indians and Chinese might well pay up, just in ways that a Western company would not. I'm sure they've all had time to "take it upstairs". I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

I've mentioned before that I think the possibility of a South Sudan deal is now much more remote given the apparent withdrawal of Petronas.

However, it isn't dead. If SS had asked Savannah to stand down, an RNS would have to be issued and the company would have to have resumed trading in very short order. There's no way that the nomad and the exchange would grant Savannah more time suspended in those circumstances.

I do not believe any other inorganic deals are imminent (besides the closure of Stubb Creek which, of course, has been fully disclosed).

I think the most likely course now is that the SSG takes its full 60 days and at that point the assets probably end up with the remaining consortium members (Chinese and Indian). If Savannah were to secure the assets, it would not be on terms as favourable as the deal struck with Petronas (though perhaps that's stating the obvious).

Https://x.com/energy_african/status/1824358490103484580

Years,away, I imagine, but our neck of the woods.

Thanks, rumpel: this is worth watching.

Correcting part of my last post, I should've written:

"I guess AK/the company is allowing the clock to run down on the GoSS 60-day preemption period and getting everything else as polished up as possible."

One wonders rather why GoSS entertained us in the first place. I note that the actual oil minister, who I believe supports our deal, is nowhere to be seen in these exchanges. I find it extremely hard to believe we get these assets now (and am somewhat dubious as to whether we even want them). I guess AK/the company is running the clock down in the 60-day exemption period and getting everything else as polished up as possible. Buckle up, ladies & gents...

...last post was a response to rumpel. Sorry if not clear.

I wonder if the claimant here was (is) able to seek injunctive relief (Mareva). I expect this to be Savannah's route to settlement should an award be granted. StreetsOfGold is the expert here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_freezing