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Maybe but in this case top holders of shares are, in order...
Africa asia capital
HL
II
Miton
Aj bell
This suggests to me a fairly concentrated ownership between Africa Asia and a lot of retail investors. So you're asking exactly the right people here !!
What everyone will sell for will be highly influenced by the board and tested i guess. FWIW i actually think this makes a great takeover target for any larger mining company looking for exposure to the PGM market, it wouldnt surprise me at all if investors were tested at some point.
Fishy I may take the same approach but I want to wait to see what dividends SLP are going to issue first
I have been in SLP for a couple of years and made a good profit, though clearly not as much as it was a few months ago.
The forward revenue and cash position are good, but with Rh down from its highs, the SP is less likely to hit some of the high targets previously discussed.
Clearly if car production and Rh move upwards then that puts a different picture on things.
At the moment I cant see much more than a 30 -50% upside from its current low SP.
I also hold JLP which with its exposure to Cu and a wider geographical spread looks to have more upside potential.
SO my contentious question of the day is should I sell 25% of my SLP holding to put it into JLP. (sits backs and waits for potential abuse !)
Just a few words about what happened recently to TSG, it was a well run profitable Company with increased profits year on year, making new discoveries and about to hit their biggest vein yet and suddenly had a disaster an accident involving death. Their shares tumbled far more than the Pi sell off deserved. The price collapse was based on fear, fuelled by speculation on BBs of massive fines . The mine reopened and the sp recovered somewhat but well bellow it’s value, it was sold and an offer was accepted at 17% above the price and what a bargain the buyer got. The fundamentals were there solid as gold but the pi’s were worried after the price collapse to fill their boots again and lost out heavily. When SLP recovers to £1 I think many will sell and keep this down and then if like the TSG buyer makes an offer of +10% it will look good. At 88p this is being looked at ……this stuff in the ground isn’t going to disappear and some countries take a long term view. I’ve been topping up at every fall down to 85p from 115 and will continue to top up following this up to 100….. and then wait for the offer or just collect dividends.
What i can't work out ( i'm going to ramp for a minute here ) is who the hell is selling SLP in the eighties? The volumes have been big the last 4 or 5 sessions. Millions of shares sold so cheap.
Sometimes you see big price swings on low volume which i get but this is all on high volume!
And a very valid tweet that is too 5-0.
I've said before, and I'll say it again. SLP has the ability, (unfortunately in either direction - what a "RAMP"!) to move hard and fast on any given trading day by rather large percentages as you point out. The next hard move I don't think anyone would disagree with - will be in the upwardly direction! :)
Chatmandu - what's important to note is my valuation hasn't changed lots at all but the price has. As Velo was saying who knows why SLP is down, actually generally why lots of stuff has got pretty cheap but it has.
I had no idea SLP would be offered at 85p and i really don't trade but i do think if SLP was 115p tomorrow i would sell it. But i have to because roughly that's how i've valued it.
Many work differently and there is no perfect way but it does pay to do your own work and study these things as you only have yourself to answer to.
Tweet suggests SLP is materially oversold, RSI at its lowest point for 5 years yesterday
https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1430439394863992836?s=20
Agree with these last 2 posts wholeheartedly. These are my valuations roughly today too, obviously in a year you'll be adding a big chunk of cashflow to the valuation pot too and as we are talking fairly low p/e's this will and should have a 20% odd effect on the valuation.
I'm out by exactly the same amount as you bangrak based on your slightly different P/E which looks fine to me. you're at 5, i'm at 4 and it's 20p different i'm fine with that. Got to always be a bit conservative too.
Good luck all, this is well worth buying at 2 digit prices starting with an 8. :)
One of you valuations there Bangrak is not too far away from one of my valuations, should we receive a bid for the company, today.
Guvvi, historical PE ratio over the last 5 yrs has been 5.26 (using info from london stock exchange site) TTM 5.22 so I'm applying 5.24 to my net of $97m on RH of $17k to give me 136p, if you use the YTD prices (RH $23.1) i get $124m or 174p. As said previously, you need RH to be well above £22k to be looking at top corner 200p unless they do something with this cash pile. The divvy is ok but you can get 12% with Evraz of FXPO. Bit of a trader's one now for a while.
(Sorry for typos. I was dragged into a nappy change and neglected to proof read before posting)
My two pence worth...
This board is a self selecting group of people that, on the whole, want the share price to soar. People have bought in at various price points and some are therefore more vulnerable than others to price volatility that others.
Maybe some people haven't been investing for very long and are a bit naive with regards to negative commentary - i.e. they assume that any words of caution are the evil shorters trying to 'steal' their shares - cries of 'deramper', 'shorters' and 'hedge fund rent boys' are thrown around with abandon.
____
Guvi - you appear to have called the prices / timed things pretty well. I wish I'd followed your trades and sold/bought to increase my holdings. Well played and good luck to you.
@toptiger
Thanks. Everything appears to have gone well, but time will tell.
Machu sensible post to be fair, your first and last of the day I expect! :)
AIM is a casino. No more no less. I've said that right here on this board for approx. the last 10 years.
oups.. meant not 5 but 10 at 10k instead of 2 at 50k
Mostly agreed Craig (and Luna)
My bets are my fault or good shouts only for sure.
Most AIM companies try many smoke and mirrors tricks to brush the negatives under the carpet while spinning up any positives and braodcasting them hard .. so doing good research is often a mare.. also accounting standards across sectors are often very different so even audited financial reporting can still be 'misleading' in varingly convoluted ways.. also you're always combining macro and micro views for an overall view too .. eg PGM prices, USD prices, US markets view - major US market sneeze and AIM catches - not cold but - flu/covid in my experience.. as some selling and no buying in most AIM stocks gets you to large 'liquidty issues' so quickly - on top of your SLP micro view..
Even including researching 'well', AIM remains hard core gambling with much chance involved imho.. so laws of probability - buy 5 very AIM oilers with 10k gbp each instead of 2 at 50k each for eg - and deep pockets - still able and willing to buy when blood on streets.. and be able to have your AIM p/f go down big in a storm and still be financially unsweaty .. etc.. adds great advantage in the AIM BETTING game imho.
Totally agree with you craig.
One has to have ones own thesis and valuation.
It always good to hear opposing views too. Every now and then, there is a nugget of interesting stuff on a BBS. But mostly, it’s just BS.
Best
Nicetu,
The most dangerous person to a persons wealth is invariably that person, especially in the stock markets.
You invest on your own research, if you invest on what people say in an anonymous chat room, then you are just rolling dice.
Anyone who complains about loosing money on the back of advice taken from an anonymous chat board is in denial simple as.
@Stoodio, reference my 115p.
I was calculating a cash adjusted p/e of 4. Once you convert the 100m odd in dollars in the bank to sterling and then adjust a - albeit rough - 100m net profit in dollars to sterling ( estimate for next 12 months but could be very wrong either way ).
You get a market cap nowhere near 2 quid much more like a low ish number starting with a 1.
I'm saying anyone is wrong these are just the numbers i'm looking at to inform my own judgements approximately. I
And i'm definately not just plucking numbers out of the air. i hope we all get very rich over time of course !
Believe me, I know that more than most :) Good luck buddy :)
Indeed stoodio.. taking this game very seriously would be bad for a persons health.. and your health is your real wealth
MachuPicchu - all good fun :)
You're very welcome on this trail being the highlight of your day stoodio... and given the amount your posting entertains me everyday, one day of entertainment back is the least I feel I could do !
Making a prediction of where I think the SP might finish today?
Right lads, imma turn myself in to the administrators :) Hahah. You cannot make this sh it up. Brilliant. Honestly thanks very much, absolute highlight of my day from an entertainment POV.
Onwards and upwards.