Member Info for Chatmandu

@JuniorLassonde

"4EL, If all goes well, then the share price will have increased significantly, which means it would not be a 10% dilution."

A 10% dilution would still be a 10% dilution whatever the share price.

Idiot rants about how everything is fascism.

Same idiot pushes his agenda endlessly.

Others are reminded of the fascist mantra 'accuse your enemies of that which you are guilty.'

Very droll @Kalan.

I've noticed a very large bid/offer spread during the past week. From what you've previously said, you appear to have access to a non-retail trading platform. What prices are you seeing at the moment?

Why didn't Leon gift him a chunk of his free shares?

@Foresthomeshotm - perhaps he's planning to pay the wage bill in the same manner as the ROM bill - via dilution?

31 March 2026

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JLP/implementation-of-mine-plan-at-molefe-5exb1aqmfb9mq5q.html

ORE Tonnes (dry)

Month 1-3 = 9349

Month 4-6 = 60007

Month 7-9 = 60000

Month 10-12 = 60000

09 June 2026

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JLP/molefe-mine-update-and-investor-presentation-l913vjplea3nzeu.html

Molefe remains on track to increase ROM deliveries to approximately 6 000t for June 2026, increasing to approximately 8 500t by August 2026, targeting steady-state of 10 000tpm delivered to Sable by October 2026

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They've halved the targeted ROM deliveries from 60k tonnes per quarter to 30k tonnes per quarter.

It's amazing how the rampers try to paint this RNS as positive.

@Couerdelion

Please feel free to feed in your preferred prompt and let us know the output.

@4everlong

"It's time Leon Coertzer started focussing on delivering, instead of continually flitting from one big thing to the next but NEVER delivering on any of them."

I would suggest that you research what repeated narrative shifts every 18 months might be indicative of. I think it's important to remember that Leon pockets around $1 million every 18 months.

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I'm not sure why, but ChatGPT doesn't share the prompt. Here is the prompt I used.

"I am invested in a company that has seen an 85% reduction in share price over 5 years. Every 18 months the narrative seems to shift from one potential game changer to another, but nothing ever seems to get delivered and previous game changers are quietly forgotten. Updates are always late with insufficient information, so that investors are left guessing or attempting to fill in the blanks. What would you infer from these observations?"

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6a2534c64ba88191adf3d543c20ba658

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You may wish to ask a follow-up question regarding the first sentence of the second paragraph.

"Come off it Chatmandu, he accused JMK of doing something illegal."

Not as far as I can see, he didn't.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/sirboring/?page=5

Sirboring's comments are dated the 17th December. He questioned why the circular stated the PGM sale's value as $90 million and didn't use the discounted Time Cost of Money value of $78 million. His argument was that JLP gave away $90 million of assets for only $78 million due to the phased payment schedule. He also queried JMK's references to IFRS versions.

JMK had a tantrum and started making threats. He then disappeared from this platform.

Feel free to read Sirboring's original comments. They contain (presumably) verbatim quotes from JMK.

"If he was threatened then he was doing something he shouldn't have."

'People only get threatened if the deserve it' - what a load of claptrap.

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"There are rules in civilised countries for this kind of thing."

Yes there are. If you go around threatening people, you're not considered 'civilised' by normal people.

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"Whatever, it did stop him for a while."

No it didn't. Sirboring has continued to post.

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"The same applies to all on here. You don't get a free shot at anyone, there are consequences for lying or bringing others into disrepute."

What consequences? What lies? What bringing others into disrepute?

"The stockpiled Cu oxide fines (482t of Cu units for H1 FY2026) will be processed and delivered to Sable Refinery upon commissioning of the new dewatering system and will provide additional Cu cathode production during Q4 FY2026."

That's copper oxide and not processed copper units.

I've no idea. The accounts are very opaque.

· Copper revenue increased by 70.5% to US$14.1 million (H1 FY2025: US$8.3 million)

· Copper gross profit increased by 847.6% to US$3.1 million (H1 FY2025: US$0.3 million)

The accounts state that the production cost is $11 million, so the $3.1 million gross profit appears to be based upon that value.

But the accounts don't say how many tonnes that $11 million figure relates to. Based upon the stated cost per tonne (US$8 062/t), I calculated it to be 1,364 tonnes, but '1 364' doesn't appear in the accounts.

I'm guessing that the revenue will include copper sold in H1, but produced during the previous accounting period.

Like everything at JLP, it it's as clear as mud.

@Sirboring - you appear to have used the average LME price to calculate the tonnes produced.

"The average LME copper price for the period under review was US$10 439/t (H1 FY2025: US$9 193/t) reaching a high of US$13 952/t since the beginning of the 2026 financial year and currently at US$12 045/t"

But I don't think JLP get the full LME price.

Also, the average LME price will be based upon each day's price divided by the total number of days. Whereas, copper will have been sold on specific days, rather than equal amounts each trading day.

"Why can't Boring write an email? Is he worried about giving the company any personal information that might identify him?"

JMK did threaten to sue him when he questioned the Time Cost of Money and why it hadn't been disclosed in the circular. JMK then disappeared from this platform - whether he was kicked off or deleted his own account is unknown.

"The tonnage I get is 1351."

That's very similar to the 1,364 tonnes that I calculated from the production figures.

The account contain 'Total saleable Cu units produced = 1,543 tonnes', but they might not have sold all the produced copper at the time the accounts were written.

@Sirboring - if you have the 'revenue number and average price', can you use them to calculate the tonnes of copper sold?

This is the problem with JMK replying to investors without posting the questions and answers on the company website. It creates a rumour mill / chinese whispers. Anybody can say anything about what JMK has supposedly said and, since JMK's account was deleted, he can't correct what is being said. It's a ridiculous situation.

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With regards to the company accounts and costs, the half year accounts don't appear to add up correctly.

"Copper cost per tonne increased by 35.6% to US$8 062/t"

"Cost of production increased by 38.7% to US$11.0 million"

11,000,000 / 8,062 = 1,364 tonnes of copper.

But the accounts state that the 'total saleable Cu units produced' = 1,543 tonnes, which gives a cost per tonne of $7,128.

If we use the Roan production of 1,246 tonnes, it gives a cost per tonne of $8,828.

I previously calculated the total cost of Roan production as $10,986,547 (based upon 1,246 tonnes), which matches the $11 million stated in the company accounts, so I presume the cost per tonne is supposed to be based upon the Roan output?

Where does the 1,364 tonnes figure come from? That number doesn't appear in the company accounts.

If we look at the half year report:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JLP/financial-report-for-6-months-to-end-december-2025-jn9bg10bazcbw8f.html

" ROM ore cost increased by 20.8% to US$4.9 million (H1 FY2025: US$4.1 million) (contributing to 44.6% of total cost of production) in line with the increase in copper prices. ROM ore cost furthermore increased as a result of a 126.4% increase in the ROM processed at Roan"

"Total Roan production = 1,246 tonnes"

$4,900,000 / 0.446 = $10,986,547 total cost of Roan production.

Production cost per tonne = $8,817

That gives a Roan margin of $5k per tonne at a copper price of $14k per tonne.

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The latest RNS contains this information, so I think it is safe to assume that the Roan margin is now less than $5k per tonne:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JLP/roan-concentrator-update-m8o8z3wopu9cj5x.html

"In addition, the company utilised the scheduled down time to implement key interventions to counter the sharp rise in global fuel and acid prices. Key interventions included the expansion of the copper oxide recovery circuit to further improve copper efficiencies by a targeted 5% to partly offset the near 80% increase in local fuel prices which directly impacts the transport cost associated with ROM delivered to Roan and copper oxide concentrate transported to the Sable refinery. Acid consumption and transport costs currently account for approximately 20% and 16% of monthly expenditure, respectively."

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It isn't clear if the non-ROM production costs will rise in a linear fashion with overall production. Presumably some costs will, such as acid, transport and power, but others might not - e.g. staff wages.

One would hope that there would be economies of scale to be had.

@Sumoskier - I don't think that the two production numbers can be conflated.

Anything from Molefe should have a very high profit margin.

Roan, on the other hand, suffers from ROM prices that rise in line with the copper price and it isn't clear if Roan can turn a profit or payback the sunk costs.

I, personally, would base any profit/breakeven calculations purely on the Molefe/Sable output.

Seisnav thinks that will be 3,600 tonnes. If we're generous and assume a profit of $10,000 per tonne, at a copper price of $14,000 per tonne, that would be $36 million before corporate overhead, deductions, etc.

That assumed margin is probably a bit high and the actual profit might be in the region of $18 to $36 million.

I don't think anybody knows the company's fixed costs, so it's hard to say how profitable that would be.

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https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JLP/financial-report-for-6-months-to-end-december-2025-jn9bg10bazcbw8f.html

· ROM ore cost increased by 20.8% to US$4.9 million (H1 FY2025: US$4.1 million) (contributing to 44.6% of total cost of production) in line with the increase in copper prices. ROM ore cost furthermore increased as a result of a 126.4% increase in the ROM processed at Roan

@Raven10

I accept that I invested and I accept that not all investments will be profitable.

You need to accept that people are entitled to question the narratives that are spun by a gang of rampers on this forum. You're free to filter my messages or delete your account and stop visiting this bulletin board. I am free to keep posting as I see fit.