Member Info for Chatmandu

It's not sunny here (and I have a morbid fascination of how this is all going to play out).

Once I put aside hope and Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO), there just didn't seem to be a valid investment case. The company has failed miserably in terms of copper production.

The historical targets, contained in the Annual Reports, were so far from reality that they could be interpreted as deliberately misleading. What's happened to that 10k tonnes of processing capacity? Did it ever exist? If it did, why isn't it working and why haven't shareholders been updated? Why is JLP still so far away from producing enough copper to make a profit, despite copper prices rising so much?

There seems to be a relentless stream of previously hidden problems, such as ROM contacts that result in dilution, high interest loans, etc.

Does anybody have a clue what the path to profitability actually is? How much copper needs to be produced? What's the margin, if any, when processing 3rd party ROM at Roan? Is it just being kept in production to flatter the annual copper production numbers?

I asked Copilot what it considered to be the fair share price. It suggested 2.0p to 3.2p, with the most likely scenario being 2.0p to 2.4p based upon the likelihood of ongoing production problems.

Good luck to those still holding.

Investment Trusts post daily NAV updates, so it can't cost that much.

'Rats deserting the sinking ship' is certainly the more common usage.

I'm not sure which version @jolly1 was referring to. Perhaps I'm the rat because I sold my holding or perhaps jolly1 was merely referring to the faltering share price. Is @Kalan a former rat now that he's reinvested?

It's genuinely hard to keep up with the Gospel of JLP.

@Kalan has stated that he is a shareholder.

You really should try to address your paranoia. It can't be healthy.

@Kalan - thanks for the update regarding your position.

Personally, I'm glad I sold out completely at 3.22p (but still sore that I didn't take advantage of the rally to 5p). That saved me from an additional £3k of losses.

I'm not sure we've hit the bottom yet. We have to presume the market is pricing in bad production figures, but how bad are they going to be and how bad does the market think they're going to be?

With poor results, and thin trading over the summer, I think the share price could slide significantly.

I presume you think there _could_ be a rally from this price. Is that based upon an expectation of upcoming positive news or purely upon the support levels you're seeing in the charts?

@eagle1234 & @gotreal appear to have nothing to say except for ad hominin attacks. I think that speaks volumes.

To those investors that are quietly holding JLP and hoping for the best, I would respectfully suggest that you asses:

1) Your portfolio's overall risk level.

2) Where JLP sits within that.

3) Decide upon your maximum acceptable losses, what that would mean for your portfolio's annual return and the impact projected into the future, and be strict if/when necessary.

Good luck to those still holding.

"Come off it, the only times you have ever contributed here is when the price is under pressure to give it another kick!"

The only time I increased my holding was in August last year. That was an attempt to average down my purchase price and I then consistently stated that, due to risk management, I wasn't prepared to allocate any further capital to JLP.

I know it must be hard to accept if you're massively invested and sitting on huge paper losses, but not everybody believes in Leon or that JLP is heading for sunlit uplands.

"are not invested and both keen to talk the price down."

I'm not keen to talk the price down. That would suggest that I'm keen to buy back into the company.

I may follow @Kalan 's lead if he thinks there is a trading opportunity, but I just can't see an investment case. I'm now firmly in the @edzi camp.

I obviously don't know the size of posters' portfolios, but I would gently suggest to @bottomsup and other investors that they should take a step back and try to make an impartial risk assessment of their investments.

In my opinion this is a failing copper company that:

1) Still can't produce meaningful quantities of copper - despite purchasing 3rd party high grade ROM.

2) Has a bullsh*t artist as CEO.

3) Is burning through the proceeds of the PGM sale and now has only a further $60 million of payments to be received.

4) Will potentially receive no PGM profit share payments from OneChrome because they can simply increase the ROM price and take the profits from that part of company, instead of the processing part.

5) Has various undisclosed contracts with ROM suppliers. One of which provides the option for suppliers to be paid with equity (shareholder dilution).

6) Recently disclosed short term debt in Zambia with unfavourable high interest rates.

7) ROM contracts that see the ROM price increase in line with the Copper price, potentially making Roan a white elephant that can't ever turn a profit.

8) Gave away a big chunk of the Molefe mine to Colin Bird's company.

_ _ _ _

It might all come good due to the Molefe mine, but that was never part of the original JLP investment case or their pivot into Copper in 2019. Are you being sold a pup?

I can easily foresee a scenario where the PGM money is squandered without any meaningful increase in copper production. What happens then? Dilution to infinity? Distressed sale of assets?

😂

I can laugh about this sh*t show now that I'm no longer invested.

I've done the same. It's really annoying that Baillie Gifford / EWI sold down SpaceX which cost me NAV and then I've had to buy that NAV back via SMT.

W*nkers.

EWI = 3% discount to NAV

SMT = 4.1% premium to NAV.

Total = 7.1% NAV hit for the sell+buy.

But... SMT has 19.3% in SpaceX because, unlike USA and EWI, Baillie Gifford didn't sell down the holding as part of their shenanigans. There are suggestions that the SpaceX IPO might value the company at twice the current value, so SMT would then be holding 32.4% SpaceX on that basis, which would cancel out the hit of switching funds.

But... That's counting chickens.

I'm really quite p*ssed off with Baillie Gifford's behaviour in selling down SpaceX in both USA and EWI. I hold both funds and it's resulted in a major hit to the NAV of both funds. I, personally, would like it to be investigated because I just can't see how it could ever have been in shareholders' interests.

_ _ _ _

SMT SpaceX calculation:

((19.3 x 2) / 119.3) x 100 = 32.4%

Sorry for any confusion. I meant to say that I'd used the wisdom tree etf as a proxy for the copper price. I think it tracks the COMEX price (hence the large drop after Trump's tariff TACO in April 2025), but I think it's useful for our comparison purposes.

Maybe... Lots of hopium at work in @SeisNav 's statements.

I note that @SeisNav didn't step in to correct @bottomsup 's assertion that 100% of the rising copper price results in increased profits for JLP.

@Happydays43 - I had to use a WisdomTree ETF as a proxy for the share price.

https://imageupload.app/i/a101cc7e4c1291b6eb22

Do you have any proof that it doesn't?

From the RNS:

"ROM ore cost increased by 20.8% to US$4.9 million (H1 FY2025: US$4.1 million) (contributing to 44.6% of total cost of production) in line with the increase in copper prices. ROM ore cost furthermore increased as a result of a 126.4% increase in the ROM processed at Roan"

It appears that an increasing copper price is irrelevant when JLP are buying in 3rd Party ROM. The suppliers simply increase the ROM prices and reduce/negate any benefit to JLP.

There will apparently be the option for a 100% immediate tender, 100% after the SpaceX IPO or do nothing and get rolled into whatever comes next.

SMT has 19.3% invested in SpaceX , so I'm tempted to take the immediate tender offer and buy SMT with the proceeds.

How long do these things normally take? Is there a chance that it could drag on so long that I'd ever up receiving the money after the IPO and not get a chance to redeploy the cash into SMT?

Any thoughts?

Given Leon's track record of 'optimistic' announcements and targets, I would expect a JORC report to be essential for a rerating based upon proven resources. I'm no expert in mergers and acquisitions, but I would expect a JORC report to be the kind of thing that would trigger takeover interest by larger players.

To be honest, I was naively expecting a JORC/JORC equivalent to be released. Maybe the market was too, which is why there was so little reaction to the RNS?