Member Info for Chatmandu

@HarmProf - "Why are we receiving this information via an email response from JMK?"

What information is this?

The share price is taking a kicking today. I expect a lot of recent buyers are seeing their stop losses kicking in and will now exit the share completely. Great.

I had hoped that JMK would get market updates out in a timely manner, but we just lurch from one information vacuum to the next.

@Kalan - are you currently in or out of JLP?

You previously said that you'd add at various price points. Is that still your plan?

Still no sign of an RNS.

Friday the 20th February?

The sugar is usually Jam Tomorrow on The Sunday Roast...

When are they due to visit Zambia?

Still no sign of that RNS.

Close of business today?

In the novel 1984, Winston Smith had the job of editing the electronic newspaper (website?) so that the past matched the present - e.g. If tractor production was predicted to be 5000 per month, but ended up as 200 a month, he'd have to change the prediction to 200 a month.

These things take time...

Probably.

Do JLP include the costs of upgrading processing capacity in their cost per tonne?

This is the problem with JLP, it's impossible to get a handle on things because everything is so opaque.

I asked ChatGPT to give a best guess for the fixed costs and proceeding costs based upon the 2024 & 2025 figures. This is what it came up with.

Best practical interpretation

If we still force a “best guess” interpretation:

Fixed overheads: ~US$30–32 million per year

True cash processing cost per tonne (at normal utilisation): likely low-to-moderate positive, but masked by under-absorption in 2025

A more realistic framing would be:

Fixed overhead: ~US$30m/year

Processing cost: maybe US$1,500–3,000/tonne, with the rest of the 2025 increase driven by:

lower throughput

inefficiency

inflation / energy / labour shocks

non-recurring costs capitalised into cost per tonne

Even if it were to hit 600 tonnes per month at year end, the output for the whole year wouldn't be 7200 tonnes.

We're starting from 2200 tonnes per year.

LME copper price is currently $12,900 tonne.

If we get 90% of that price = $11,600 tonne.

Minus SeisNav's $7,000 per tonne costs = $4,600 tonne = £3,400 profit per tonne.

7000 tonnes x £3400 = £23,800,000.

Minus fixed corporate overheads of $3 million = £20,800,000 profit.

15x P/E ratio = £312 million

3 billion shares = 10.4p

But I would be very surprised if we produce 7k tonnes this year. A more realistic quantity might be 5k tonnes. That would give a share price of 7p using the same numbers.

7k tonnes x £4k profit per tonne = £28 million

15x P/E ratio = £420 million market cap

3 billion shares = 14p per share

minus fixed corporate overhead of £3 million (?) = 12.5p per share.

There are too many unknowns to give any kind of accurate predictions/valuations.

- What are the processing costs?

- What do we pay for ROM? Does that price increase with the copper price and erode any additional profits?

- What price do we get for copper?

- What are the overheads?

I haven't said that I have no faith in the company delivering.

I provided a 'planets aligning' valuation of 150p per share and a 'realistic' valuation of 20p per share earlier this week.

I consider JLP to be a very risky investment, but I'm happy to let it run to see if the company can finally produce decent quantities of copper.

I'm also still sitting on a loss...

5.05p is the nominal breakeven for me, but, if you factor in opportunity cost vs a Global tracker ETF, I would need to sell at 8.3p to break even.

@NorthernShark - You do you.

Given the BS merchant running the company, country risk, constantly missed targets, exposure to a single commodity, constantly missed deadlines, disappearing projects, etc., I consider this to be an ultra hight risk investment.

You may not and that's fine.

In the article, the author suggests investing £100k for a ten bagger to £1 million.

I would humbly suggest that a sensible risk management approach would be to have no more than 5% of invested capital in JLP, with total ultra high risk investments comprising less than 10% of your invested capital (I actually think 10% is probably far too high).

@Couerdelion

"If it makes you a millionaire at 4.8p, chances are you already are."

and if you're not already a millionaire, you really shouldn't be investing £100k+ in ultra high risk companies such as JLP.

Now at a 33% discount to NAV.

Https://www.hgcapitaltrust.com/news-insights/news/2026/06-01-2026

They've paid a 31% premium to take it private.

The closing paragraph from the City Wire article:

"Compared with several of the more recent mid-market European software investments accessed by HGT, which Panmure Liberum’s Shonil Chande noted ‘have tended to be DACH and wider European SaaS names’, the US deal marks a step into new territory. "

The markets perception of reality is a copper company that only produced 2200 tonnes of copper last year.

A company that promises Sable upgrades to be completed by June 2025, but...... surprise!!!!! It's still not been completed and we now have a promise of September 2026.

As per my original post, I can't believe investors still lap up his BS.

Results, dear boy, results.

What does the market value those assets at?

You're all operating on wishful thinking, rather than the actual market reality.

The market does not place a value on those things - just look at the market cap for incontrovertible proof of that reality.

*If* JLP starts to process the LWP for a profit, the market *may* place a value on it.

*If* JLP ever release the results of industry standard drilling surveys for Molefe, the market *may* place a value on it.

Until then, the share price will continue to reflect reality, rather than wishful thinking.