Member Info for Chatmandu

@Happydays43

"Will be interesting to see if Cobalt gets a mention in the next update.."

I've had enough of things being mentioned in the RNS. We need to see results. No more smoke and mirrors.

Should I be worried that copper prices are so high, but yet no other companies are making offers for JLP?

"Which is why HappyD for Jubilee, the only way is up."

That's a dangerous assertion, that isn't supported by the share price history. We were 20% lower just last week, so there's at least a 20% downside risk in the absence of any positive news from the company.

Are we now celebrating the share price reaching the giddy heights of 2.8p?

Sorry, I've just realised I've done a 25% increase in price, but you get my point.

Unfortunately, due to Jubilee's secret ways, we don't know the current fixed costs for the company, but I would expect a 20% increase in the copper price to have an exponential impact upon balance sheet.

For example:

Fixed costs = $15 million

Copper price = $8,000

2,000 tonnes = $16 million

Profit = $1 million

Fixed costs = $15 million

Copper price = $10,000

2,000 tonnes = $20 million

Profit = $5 million

So that would be a five fold increase in profits.

We won't see that of course...

Add I've said previously, the market values the big piles of discarded rock at zero.

The search for a partner has, at least until now, been fruitless.

We don't even appear to be processing them, and are buying in high grade ore instead, so is the market wrong?

But if a target is higher than the maximum theoretical output, then it isn't really a target, is it?

What would the average person call it?

I can't help but wonder _why_ these pie in the sky numbers have been repeatedly released. They appear to have zero basis in reality.

@Seisnav

From the 2021 Annual Report.

Project Roan’s integrated copper concentrator is set for commissioning and targeting to commence commercial operations during Q1 CY2022, which will result in the first significant increase in copper production by the Sable Refinery, targeting 10 000 tonnes of copper units annually.

The copper targes for 2022 & 2023 were 10,000 tonnes per annum.

Given the installed refining capacity at that time, was it even technically possible to produce that much copper?

This RNS states a combined capacity of 550 tonnes per month for Roan and Sable. That equates to 6,600 tonnes per annum.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JLP/zambian-operations-update-c69owxy1vyoxep1.html

So where did the AGM's target of 10,000 tonnes come from?

Given we only produced 2,728 tonnes of copper in 2022, did the stated theoretical capacity of 6,600 tonnes even exist in reality?

Why was the 10,000 target carried forwards for 2023 when the actual output was only 41% of the stated theoretical maximum of 6,600 tonnes?

Unless I'm missing something, these targets contained in the Audited Annual Reports were never achievable and management knew they were never achievable because they're directly contradicted by the information provided in the RNS updates - so why are they contained in the Annual Reports?

Have any of these discrepancies ever been looked at previously?

If my analysis is correct (and I'm happy to be corrected), what does this say about management?

@SeisNav

But aren't we currently processing purchased ore at Roan?

"Jubilee completes successful trials at Roan concentrator with long term supply agreement reached for high-grade copper (Cu) run-of-mine (ROM) supply targeting a minimum grade of 1.4% Cu."

Why do we need to buy high-grade copper ROM?

Are we even processing 'transitional ores'?

If we're purchasing high-grade copper ROM, why do we produce such pathetic amounts of copper?

What was the 10k tonnes target based upon, if our processing capacity is so small?

What is the vague aspiration of 25k tonnes based upon?

Have investors been materially misled as to the potential of this company?

@jm-k

https://atalayamining.com/operations/riotinto-district/riotinto-15-mtpa-plant/

I would consider Atalaya to be comparable to JLP in so much as they're successfully extracting 46k tonnes of copper from 0.35% grade feed material.

Our feedstock is of higher grade, but our production is pitiful.

I appreciate you're not the chemist, miner or production specialist, and that you weren't with JLP when the company was targeting 10k tonnes per annum, but it's pretty clear that we're failing at our supposed specialty of metals processing.

What's gone wrong?

What continues to go wrong?

Do we have a viable plan to improve things?

How long will that take?

Why can't we just copy Atalaya's processing method?

Can we poach their experts to replace/enhance our team?

I'm not prepared to commit any further capital to this company - at least until they prove that they can actually produce decent quantities of copper without additional capex.

@HappyDays

I think it is pretty clear that the processing doesn't work as designed/envisioned.

The targets for 2022 and 2023 were 10k tonnes. Presumably that was based upon the designed capacity. We only produced around 2,500 tonnes.

We're now targeting much lower amounts, but where is the mea culpa regarding this outcome?

@HappyDays - but how does l do we get rid of him? It looks like he can take his £500k a year until the business folds.

If you look at the trades, it appears that somebody has attempted to bump up the share price by submitting multiple 10p buys that are then immediately followed by large sales (500k).

We're now at 2.45p and nobody appears to be averaging down or making large purchases.

But they predicted/targeted 10,000 tonnes for 2022 and 2023.

That means they thought the refineries were capable of producing that amount of copper.

Why are we now being told that they're working as designed, when we're producing such pathetic amounts of copper? What's happened to all that capacity?

I really can't see any other explanation other than that the refineries are a failure in terms of their performance versus designed output.

They had a 2019 target of 4350 tonnes of copper cathode in 2020.

We've still never produced that much.

2020 mentioned ramping up to 25,000 tonnes of copper.

If we're still not producing 4000 tonnes of copper, after six years, the process clearly doesn't work as designed.

We've still not achieved 2019's copper production target for 2020.

I, personally, can't think of any other scenarios other than that management was lying in order to hoodwink investors or the refinement/extraction/processing isn't working anywhere near the designed/claimed specifications.

I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt regarding management's honesty, so that leaves us with a failing processing method.

Management can't blame short term external disruption, such as power and water, because it's been six years of failure.

Management need to come clean and admit what's going wrong, how much money has been wasted on this failed processing method and what their plans are to get us out of this hole to ramp up copper production.

I, personally, think that Leon can't admit/accept that his processing method is a failure and we're flogging a dead horse when there are other proven methods we could be employing - see Atalaya for inspiration.

Given the track record of failure against published targets, anybody that blindly cheerleads management, whilst attempting to shutdown debate, is either stupid or a paid bulletin board influencer - there's no other option.