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Started: cautionyourblast, 13 Jun 2024 16:55
Last post: cautionyourblast, 13 Jun 2024 16:55
Started: Rinsed_repeat, 29 Apr 2024 15:44
Last post: sheffieldowls, 31 May 2024 15:56
Bangrak I also owe thanks to you by following your advice and selling my substantial holding in Sylvania Platinum my losses have been limited. It told me a great deal that the company and its broker were not interested in purchasing shares in the recent buy back once the share price was over sixty pence a share. If they were not prepared to pay sixty pence a share it made me realise that to sell my holding at over seventy pence a share as I recently did was a good deal for me.
You're welcome Anderson,
Last year i posted this report and very few read it, it highlighted a serious oversupply of RH due to glass manufacturers selling back RH ........... different this year but not wow, very clear message in this report.
https://matthey.com/documents/161599/509428/PGM-Market-Report-24.pdf/4d557d3b-47d1-d975-c4af-5df1c81000f0?t=1715228936090
Ps that is a general comment, not a response to the post below!
This went Ex-divi today didn't it - but an unexpected slight rise nonetheless?
Posters criticising Bangrak should do themselves a favour and look back at his posts from the past few years on here. He has consistently called the share movement correctly and has supported all his views with solid analysis whereas most everyone else thinks the price will go up simply because it was higher a while back and Simon Thompson says it will.
Following his logic has made me and saved me significant returns and we should be grateful he continues to post here even if he is out of the share right now.
I exited all my holding at 70p this past week. It doesn’t mean I don’t believe in Jaco or the long term future of the company or the likelihood that pgm are likely to rise . It is only that I think the chances of me being able to buy back in at 55p are infinitely higher than they are of selling out at 85p in the next few months.
Thanks Bangrak for your extremely gratefully received posts here.
Started: Mulder, 20 May 2024 12:38
Last post: Mulder, 20 May 2024 12:38
PGM basket price rising ++
Started: Mulder, 8 Apr 2024 16:30
Last post: cautionyourblast, 29 Apr 2024 11:57
Agreed, bangrak. I'm an investor in both BHP and AAL.
I like metals and oil & gas. London listing in that space finally getting a little bit of love.
I'll certainly reconsider buying here too, maybe you might too. Just with ex-cash PE at about 15 and the strong possibility of a dividend cut to zero, this is far too richly valued right now. It's a single-strategy commodity processor in SA, after all. Great exit price here before the Q3s drop.
Hi CYB,
The structure of the BHP AA offer indicated where you should be invested in the commodity sector. The parts of AA not wanted says it all to me and confirms my view that the transition metals are the place to be.
I agree, bangrak.
It may be a while away, but when Ivanhoe brings phase 2 of this project on line, that could be a significant driver of global PGM supply.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbb-O6KOFbQ&feature=youtu.be
Ben @ Liberum said this on the 25th Oct which was 2 quarters ago, Rh was $4700....
"We believe that the rhodium price will lift substantially in the coming quarters (Commodity priceDECK (61 pgs)) as destocking by glass fibre and automaker OEMs comes to an end. There is further upside risk from supply disruptions in South Africa and Russia"
That seems to justify Ben maintaining a ridiculously high net profit for 24 which IMO has been impossible to attain for 6 months without $13k RH for the last 6m. In Q4 and FY it will be interesting to see how they cover this. When the net comes in below $10m and you have given $33m you look incompetent and also untrustworthy, a bit like that bloke at IC.
Cash plus 4-5 times projected FY24 net profit gives a share price in the low-to-mid 40s. Add 5 pence for sound management and potential growth in ounces produced. Deduct 5 pence for country in a big political and financial mess. I still end up with FV around 43-45 pence.
Started: wyt3fr0g, 26 Apr 2024 14:18
Last post: wyt3fr0g, 26 Apr 2024 14:18
6.98% rise today. This SP used to be in the 100s with a decent dividend not too long ago
Started: cautionyourblast, 22 Apr 2024 18:20
Last post: Bazzaman, 26 Apr 2024 13:03
SP on the up ahead of Monday's qtr 3 update, bodes well IMHO.
GLA
I expect a profit marginally higher than Q1 or Q2, but only marginally (on account of Rh having nudged up a little).
Profit for the year is heading for around USD8m, bar any exceptionals.
This is a pretty easy share for which to estimate value.
Started: sheffieldowls, 22 Apr 2024 14:38
Last post: DaveT1, 22 Apr 2024 16:38
It's going ok.
Read the 4th March buyback note for the various restrictions Liberum have to abide by.
Just need the basket prices to keep on rising.
I believe it would be fair to say that the directors of the company are in the best position to know the true value of the shares of Sylvania Platinum hence its a little concerning to me that the board does not appear to believe that the shares are worth more than sixty pence a share hence they have only made share buy backs when the shares have been below that figure.
Last post: nimrod22, 14 Apr 2024 10:08
Appears to be a industrial recovery underway in China and USA which will help boost the value of companies involved in PGMs. I'm up 20% since buying back-in on 20th March. SLP, JLP, and THS have all started upwards since 4th March. Non UK companies such as Anglo American AAL and Sibanye Stillwater SBSW are behaving similarly.
Started: Mulder, 12 Apr 2024 16:17
Last post: Mulder, 12 Apr 2024 16:17
.
Started: Magoo79, 12 Apr 2024 13:13
Last post: Quiggers52, 12 Apr 2024 16:15
Not surprising with the buy backs going on supporting the share price.
The underlying RH price looks stable at 4,750 or thereabouts.
Be nice to have some news on the projects as that is the only internal catalyst that can move the needle here IMHO. SLP have sat on those assets for over a decade now. Perhaps Jaco realises that exploiting those commercial rights is the only way for growth, the recent history (spike in Rh) simply being a distraction albeit a welcome one, it was only ever going to be a white swan event.
Time will tell...
Earlier this week we have broke out from the descending channel. Yesterday retest to the trend line and today we are bouncing off. Very nice. This could move up quite a bit over the next few weeks, unless PGMs retrace.
Started: cautionyourblast, 10 Apr 2024 09:57
Last post: Heroric, 10 Apr 2024 12:33
Well, Its fair to say I regret selling at 55p! I thought it was being held up by buybacks, but seems to have gone crazy this last week. Typical! Not sure what to do now, I like the management (another world compared to JLP) and wanted to get back in, but really not sure if I have missed the boat or if this is a bit of a spike? I remain cautious re long term Platinum demand.
For me fundamentally 60p is generously fair on the current basket, technically 69p is as much as you should be considering at this stage if you do charts. Been driven up by the broker defending the 20 day, traders and systems have done the rest. 51p to 69p is enough for me. Gains everywhere
It's a good job we are backed by 260M of net assets including 100M of cash then.
And I appreciate the dividend even though basket prices are poor at the moment.
...have rather a long way to catch up with the share price.
Started: Mulder, 4 Apr 2024 17:45
Last post: Mulder, 4 Apr 2024 17:45
.
Started: bohercom, 15 Mar 2024 09:37
Last post: bohercom, 2 Apr 2024 09:27
Buyback total now 1,879,000 shares and they've used approx. $1,327,379 of the $3m total.
They've been spending an average of $73,742 per day.
There are 21 trading days left of the buyback, so if they are to use the full $3m then the daily average spend needs to rise to $92,528 - quite a rise. Obviously that rise will be either through buying more shares, or buying at a higher price - probably a combination of both :-)
They started buying at 51p.
All looks well set for the future . very safe and super div , added yesterday
They've now bought back 1,288,000 shares and have spent approx. $901,837, so approx $2.1m left if they use the full $3m.
They were paying 51p per share when they started. Yesterday they paid 59.26p per share.
Of the maximum $3m allocated for the buyback, they've currently used approx $647,000 buying 930,000 shares.
They've been spending an average of $92,000 per day.
There are 27 trading days left until the 30th April (when the buyback ends), and $2,353,000 left in the pot. Averages around $87,000 per day - so pretty much seems like the buyback running at the same rate as currently if they do use the full $3m.
Started: hairydavey, 13 Mar 2024 12:17
Last post: dotlink, 21 Mar 2024 04:50
Platinum and palladium starting to go up again following gold and silver prices.
Rhodium and platinum prices are also rising steadily, if sp goes down i will just buy some more.
$1072/ounce !! Rising nicely
Started: Mulder, 14 Mar 2024 20:46
Last post: Quiggers52, 18 Mar 2024 15:31
Yes, it looks to be creeping back
Averaged $4,200-$4,300 over the prior 6 months.
Started: Richard08, 11 Mar 2024 10:28
Last post: jollygoodya, 13 Mar 2024 04:10
Expect this to continue.
1/ spot pricing will rise further, ignore short term volatility.
2/ Impact of gold and silver rising, will translate in general to most other miners, to some degree irrespective of their basket.
I believe slp are well placed to rise further.
After that long duration downtrend......the outlook,looks like a trend reversal..imo...especially when the fed start dropping rates,pushing the dollar lower
Give the rise in PGM prices and the company hoovering up a large % of the shares being offered to buy, this rally will hopefully have some legs.
Started: Mulder, 6 Mar 2024 21:05
Last post: dotlink, 11 Mar 2024 13:09
Palladium price is still going up but platinum price is flying, with the share buy backs we will see 65p soon and 70p by friday.
Reality is knocking on the doors...
Platinum is over 900 and the momentum is building, we should see over 60p this week, mind you NAV is 58p with no debt and share buy backs is continuing.
Yes, looks like things are starting to recover nicely.
That's huge.
Platinum up strongly also.
Last post: Heroric, 11 Mar 2024 11:03
The increases at the moment are being driven by the share buy backs, offsetting sells. The problem is, once the buyback is completed (was it £3m in total?) I fear the price may drop back again.
I agree when you look at the absurd valuations in most other markets especially Tech .. a company with this much cash and what seems like a turn in the commodity after a bear market .. is worth looking further into.. Gold is tearing higher and not long before the other PMs start to follow..
SLP's basket price is set to rise in the second half and looking at the reasons behind the recent commodity price movements could run faster than forecasts, which for speculators happy with the £80m cash in the bank, values the annual cashflow of circa $20m with ongoing dividend yield of 8% at just £60m.
On the point of buybacks at the current share price, this is arguably the most the best route to retaining value assuming the cash and liquid assets are maintained at around $100m and margins having bottomed now begin to improve. If you believe the price is heading to 40p then you will hold a different view, however I'm of the opinion precious metal producers are due a rebound.
This buyback is a waste of time in my opinion also, I really don't see the point right now with all the uncertainty. I had previously sold all my holding until things have settled down once more but I just can't see it yet.
Edison 26/2/24 expects $19.1m or $16.7m in H2....down here SLP cannot generate much more than $18m a year, they should have done $8-9m in H1 according to my numbers but that didn't happen so I'm wondering where the profit is going. A mining business producing a product that isn't very fashionable now with a reasonable amount of cash IMO would trade on a low PE sub 5 cash adjusted 2-3 is reasonable and that is 43-49p. If the broker wastes the $3m on buybacks above 50p and pushes up the price then it is wasted cash once more. Use the month to defend and add stability to the bottom creating a solid POC, if prices rise then add another $3m.
**22/2/24** Page 3 broker financial model........net income 2024 $33.1m.
H1 2024 is over with $3m done & the broker still thinks $30m in H2 is possible & IC/ST is sharing this target in a paid-for article. Fluff or reality you decide what you read.
Started: MRPoisson, 23 Feb 2024 14:59
Last post: LunaNera, 4 Mar 2024 23:28
Most of published 'research' does not qualify as independent.
Maybe the BOD could explain as to why these services are necessary?
Not that I don't think that the company is well run. Au contraire!. But is this distraction (and expense) necessary?
7 June 2024, this will hit 40p and then I will buy in - with mucho, mucho greed :)
Edison provide paid for research - so don't get too excited!
SLP have paid for their independent research.
On the face of it this seems oversold.. The cash position alone is over $100M alone..
From Edison brokers I should have mentioned …
Ah you're right Malvolio - I stand corrected.
Either way, a sizeable tailwind!
More like 4.7 million shares - dollars not pounds
£3 million, giving approx 6 millions shares, representing approx 4.5% of the listed shares. And all bought (potentially) before the expiry at the end of April?? That’s only forty or so trading days.
Let’s see what happens now.
It’s about time. All that cash and a low sp. It’s clearly oversold as are most of the miners and explorers at the moment.
Hi Rich, best you check your figures, you are wildly out
I bought in after a ST tip previously; he has continued to push this. I was lucky enough to listen to Bangrak on here and do some further research and sell at about even after the price had been pushed up a bit. Since then it has dropped by about 35%. Thanks Bangrak for making me delve a bit deeper and not trust the IC or house brokers.
Started: Mulder, 23 Feb 2024 14:35
Last post: wildtiger, 23 Feb 2024 15:04
Yea peanuts, which does more harm than good.
60,000 shares.
Last post: wildtiger, 23 Feb 2024 12:48
IC is usually way too early with their "tips". I remember they were tiping CMCX at 170p last year with a "Strong Buy" and it ended up bottoming around 95p
Investors’ Chronicle is pushing this as a recovery play with recovery in PGM prices just around the corner. A bit like Rishi Sunak telling us higher economic growth, lower inflation and improving public finances are just around the corner. I’m sceptical.