"IPPC has been issued, why would they do that if they did not want to crack on with this project?"
It has taken the Slovenian government years to issue this permit. They only issued it when AST's gas output was in serious decline, and their bank balance also well run down. The IPPC permit is of absolutely no use if AST do not have enough gas to feed a cleaning plant, and not enough money to build one either.
As I said earlier they are jerking AST around!
"An enormously increased risk means increased % rates. "
It also means that the bank may not get their money back!
I would be very surprised to see any bank investing here at the moment. If the Slovenian authorities start playing ball with AST, then anything is on the table. However, while they continue to jerk AST around, crowd funding looks like their only option.
I'll bounce that question back to you Piler.
If KIER or Woodford etc. did not believe that they could influence the market by commissioning this report, then why did they pay many thousands of pounds to ALIGN to produce it??
If they simply wanted to communicate with the market, an RNS is far cheaper.
You are missing the pointeth Piler.
Of course they would not talk down the stock while they are being paid in KIER shares. As to whether they really have faith in the company - who knows?
This is a paid for report, pure and simple. KIER, Woodford or one of the other large shareholders will have paid for this report; it is anything but independent. ALIGN have been paid in KIER shares for this. If the report had been negative it would not have been published, and their chances of picking up further commissions from KIER or other companies would be seriously diminished, so of course it is positive.
Assuming they were paid £30k in KIER shares for this, they might make a further £10k by selling these shares after Tuesday. A bad report and that £30k payment could easily drop to £20k or less. It is clearly in their own interest to be positive, which is why they have to post warnings about their independence. Please also note that the report may not even have been written by ALIGN, but by a paid independent analyst.
"Our “Conviction Buy” recommendation is derived from our conviction in taking either equity as payment for our research services or applying any such cash fee to the purchase of equity whilst absorbing the cash cost of our freelance analyst payments."
Sorry, but this type of paid for research is not worth the paper it is written on!
Align Company & Personal Account Dealing Policy
"Upon the publication of a research report or blog in a company covered by Align, any interest held by an analyst, director or connected party is disclosed openly. Any additional purchases or sales by the interested party in the covered company is subject to a 2 full working days restriction following the initial research note publication.
From a Company perspective you should assume, given that we look to take our fees almost wholly in equity, that Align will actively manage its cash position, not least for general administration and taxation purposes and that equity divestments will take place as and when we deem, in our sole discretion, it appropriate."
This could not be any clearer, Piler. ALIGN are paid in shares for their "research". The report was published on Saturday, and they cannot sell these shares for two working days - ie: Wednesday.
"Align Research & a director of Align Research holds exposure to each of the company’s mentioned here and are bound to Align Research’s company dealing policy ensuring open and adequate disclosure. Full details can be found on our website here (“Legals” see below)."
"Our “Conviction Buy” recommendation is derived from our conviction in taking either equity as payment for our research services or applying any such cash fee to the purchase of equity whilst absorbing the cash cost of our freelance analyst payments."
Be careful, this is not exactly impartial advice that ALIGN are giving!
POG has $625m of outstanding debt. It would be better imo to try to buy back some of these bonds with any spare cash, rather than pay shareholders a dividend. Otherwise we will be refinancing the bonds yet again in another couple of years.
Auston,
I expect that a large percentage of Woodford investors will bail out as soon as the fund reopens. I had previously been a fan of Woodford, but the way he has handled events lately has changed my view of him. He has broken the rules by investing too heavily in private (unlisted ) companies. He then tried to disguise this by listing three of these companies on the (Micky Mouse) Guernsey Exchange. The Guernsey Exchange are so embarrassed by this that they have now insisted that he de-lists two of these companies.
Closing his WEIF fund was inevitable when Kent County Council asked for over £200m of their money back, and he did not have it, or any way of easily getting it. However, he has arrogantly refused to apologize to his investors and continued to take full fund fees for the closed fund. His star is well and truly tarnished. Who will trust him with their money now?
He is the major shareholder in some of the private companies he has invested in. He will find it very difficult to convert these holdings to cash, and all the time the value of his funds are dropping and redemption requests are increasing. Short of a miracle revaluation of one or more of his holdings, I think that he is finished, and WEIF may never reopen.
Auston,
I am not disputing Neil Woodfords excellent stock picking record, but that was years ago. His current performance sucks! The reason his fund shut was a rush of customers trying to withdraw their cash. Like a run on a bank, what starts as a few, can soon turn into a stampede. Many of his customers still want their money out, so whether he wants to or not, he has to sell. Closing the fund and still applying charges, was a fatal mistake that is likely to end his fund management career. How would you feel if you were trying to complete on a house purchase, and you were refused access to £30,000 of your funds for at least six months?
As for his ability to read a balance sheet: his history over the past two or three years seems to contradict that. He has backed a series of duds, not just KIER.
Company accounts are now so complicated that I question anybody's ability to know if they are being presented with a truthful view of how a firm is doing. The auditors clearly cannot do this, despite their degrees in accountancy. If they could, we would not see so many of the major firms being fined for audit failures.
Auson,
If you are assessing this as a good investment because Neil Woodford is invested here, than I feel sorry for you. Woodford has made a series of bad investments, that has caused a run on his WEIF fund. He has lost his clients a lot of money and closed the fund, preventing them withdrawing what money is left. Personally, I think that he and his funds are finished. Continuing to apply charges to a fund that is closed will have p1 $$ ed off all but his most ardent fans. Incidentally did not the "master" invest in Carillion as well?
"Net Asset Value of £600m ( market cap ) only £130m"
Auson,
That Net Asset Value turns negative when you deduct the £864m of Intangible Assets, which are often mostly goodwill. CLLN used the same flawed logic to present a positive asset value in their last set of accounts.
Auson,
I am not interested in Net Debt figures. I only take any real notice of actual debt, ie: how much money a company owes.
KIER's Net Debt figure is softened by subtracting £864m of Intangible Assets. These may prove useful if another company is trying to take over the business, but when the receiver is called in, usually cannot be recovered. CLLN had from memory over £1.5bn of intangible assets when they went broke.
DaveT1,
Debt is what a company owes to it's banks, creditors, lenders etc.
This is not to be confused with saccharine terms like Net Debt, or Average Monthly Net Debt.
KIER has current liabilities of £1.55 bn, and non current liabilities of £646m.
This is a total debt or over £2.2bn.
PS: Don't take my word for this, simply click on the KIE Fundamentals tab at the top of this page.
"What low price shares would you suggest?"
TAMWBG,
Two stocks that have fallen quite sharply recently are Costain (COST), and Morgan Sindall (MGNS). Both in the building / construction sector, they look a far safer bet than KIER in my opinion. But it's your money, so it's your choice. Good luck!
Not sure where you got that figure of £450m to £500m from KRSS?
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/XAU-Resources-Inc-Completes-Initial-Public-Offering--28925077/
XAU Resources have just completed an IPO that sold 4,411,500 new shares at $0.1 per share, raising $441,150. There are another 4m shares held in escrow. Assuming these were sold at the same price, the company would still have less than $1m cash.
POG's assets are worth way more than this, and they have debts of $625m. I can't see how a company with under $1m in cash can could acquire or take over POG.
"Do you agree that the Kier could be forced to attempt another rights issue to raise cash as part of its Interim Results?"
Notaflipper, the answer to your question is a definite NO.
KIER might like to launch another Rights Issue, but after the abject failure of the previous one, I doubt that there is a bank or brokerage that will touch it with a barge pole.
The banks failed to find buyers for the last KIER RI shares. Will they be prepared to underwrite another one? I don't think so.
Sounds like you are agreeing with me Stockdale.
The law firm are reliant on Slovenia coughing up if AST win the case.
And what if AST lose on some obscure technicality?
Would you back legal action with your money?
Stockdale,
I am not disputing the existence of No Win No Fee funding, simply the chances of AST finding a legal firm willing to back them on this basis. How long is it now that the company have been talking about this? Compressors, new projects, legal funding, with Colin it has been all talk and no action.