Member Info for LoggyLogbot

Hey Mush, I hope your dessert spoon has a shovel based design....

Good comment notrader - the funding is the final piece of the jigsaw. We've just got to find it!

I'd agree with Paul's view.
My take is - have some in your portfolio, keep for ever, don't worry too much about SP fluctuations, add when "low" providing you're diversified. Follow the long term chart ( 5 yrs + ).

Arguably more useful is the number of shares on loan compared to the "average daily trading" volume.
JC's post on the other site shows that on Friday, 90.78M shares were on loan, which is 6.18 days' worth ( i.e. days to cover, also shown ).

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=164

I'm in full agreement - I've seen people who do well with one trade, up a huge percentage, but then it all goes on another trade and then it's down a similar amount so back to square one. I would argue at least *some* kind of strategy is needed, and it looks like mine may have similarities to yours. I attempt to accumulate mainly high yielding 'solid company' shares when there is a buying opportunity, with the intention to hold for a long time. Any dividends get re-invested coupled with some monthly money I put aside. I do have a few more speculative investments, which may or may not succeed. However if they do, the returns can be decent and plenty of that money is put back into the "safer" high yielders with hopefully some left over to take some little chances here and there!
Picking up DLG in the 11 & 12% dividend bracket was definitely an opportunity - we don't know how it will pan out , but I am hopeful that margins will be restored and the dividend can be maintained.

Not if they've got it in the same cr@p savings account as me.

Drop is predominantly 'cos it's gone Ex Div.
Add the £2.21 per share you'll be getting if you held yesteday to the current price per share.
I would definitely recommend RIO - I can't add more at the moment as I'mn a bit heavy in them but I would also be happy buying in under £50. Even with a ballpark 30% reduction in divi you still get a hefty return with potential capital gain.

I am basing this (fairly) arbitrarily on the 267 cents interim divi against the 376 previous interim divi ( completely ignoring specials )
If a similar reduction happens with final, then that'd be 296 cents from 417.

This gives a total of 563 cents - @.82 Exchange = £4.61 per share.
At £50 per share this is a return of 9.22%
At today's £48 this is a return of 9.6%

Obviously a good year, iron ore prices up, Aluminium prices up and it could be a lot better?!!

Hi Robleo, I have my DLG shares in my long term 'divi' ISA where the trading costs are £10 ( don't particularly use that account to do any trading), so that cost usually focusses the mind - meaning I need a really decent reason to 'change horses' !
I stuck rather than twisted, so I'm also pleasantly surprised this morning that the SP is holding pretty firm - obviously time will tell .... DLG hit quite a bad low and my hunch (or hope!) is that the SP can 'regroup' ( I can't think of better word! ) and claw back to something at least a little bit closer to the 250s over the next few months, which is the consensus broker estimates (FWIW) that arrived in August.

I read yesterday that Admiral did okay by putting prices up by much more than inflation, and they felt the rest of the market would follow. DLG (along with all the other insurers) having now also put prices up need to be laser focussed on inflation and their price setting. I guess it's a tricky conundrum setting prices to attempt to keep or increase market share when you don't know how extraordinary the next inflation figures are, and the companies that respond the cleverest will have the best success.

God, this is the longest post I've ever written, with probably the most metaphors. I hope you're not too bored yet....!
Loggy

Cheers TT. We've certainly cleared a few hurdles recently, that's for sure.
Most of the news in the pipeline now should be positive - Greatland are obviously awaiting NCM s decision on the 5%. I think they'll take it. I'm not sure that news (5%) will be in isolation either - I think we'll get some other financial news along side it - confirmation on how GGP intend to use portions of it ( loan repayment which we know about etc ) is an obvious one, but SD usually pulls something from left field that we've not thought about!

Hi TT,
Was it ever established why they accepted a reduction in shares? Was it because the deal was brought forward, i.e executed prior to the FS / official decision to mine?

Hi RA, I don't know why he didn't go the whole way and copy the other paragraph as well. But I guess Two out of Three Aint Bad.

Quite a bit to weigh up -
I've always stayed away from the stress of trying to sell & buy back although it (looks like) it usually works more often than not. I've decided to hold - I got a tranche at 1.87 so theoretically I would comfortably be able to trade that batch, but I'm going for the fact that these are historically low ( at 2013 levels? ) and I'm going to plough on and take the divi, re-investing that. So apologies in advance for the big drop tomorrow!

All things being equal it will drop around 7.6p, equivalent to the divi, tomorrow.
But all things are never equal, so it could do many things!

Probably even more confusing is the volume of 0:
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
09-Aug-22 15:55:12 4,965.00 0 Unknown* 4,965.00 4,966.50 0.00

Porsche, there are two problems with your posts. Firstly they are incessant repetition, and secondly they are loaded with a tone of patronising superiority. People have different opinions to you. Different opinions make a market.

In my opinion, DLG is not a basket case - they are making money. The main issue that they have faced is inflation. If you sell policies for months with a baked in profit margin, and then the inflation rate sky rockets, you take a hit to your margins. DLG have addressed this ( putting policy prices up) but there is a lag.
The other aspect of inflation is that it's not an issue solely affecting DLG in the insurance market, so therefore competitors are forced to make the same price increases, so market share is fought elsewhere. I think DLG are fine for long term outlook - one thing I agree with you on is that potential recession is a massive headwind. I don't know what that will do to the price, but I do believe investors that are building positions rather than trading will benefit in the years to come.

"Just me and you then Bellers. The shorters will be terrified"
That made me laugh JSP, excellent!
I'll keep an eye out for the price monitering extention...

Roy - I liked what SD said somewhere in one of his many interviews this week - that the 5% deal was a "win-lose" and thus it ended up competitive. He is now hoping that Newcrest and Greatland can be re-aligned.
If this doesn't happen and Newcrest aggressively pursue our remaining 25%, then there is also the option of selling our interest to another major, or even better a bidding war. I'm not interested in that, I want to mine ( and SD wants to mine as it's in his corporate plan), but the option is there.

Hi Groucho, I'm not very techinal - could you just draw the rocket if it's good news

We were sat around 13p for the first 5 months of the year with the PT uncertainty and especially the 5% uncertainty. We surely MUST get back to no less than that level?!

Nothing has been announced yet.
I'm expecting any dividend declaration to be included in the Half Year Results, released on July 27.