Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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Https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/africa-press-releases/media-invited-to-attend-libya-energy-economic-summit-noxdbz7g
Energy Capital&Power (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) extends an official invitation to energy and general news media to participate at the second edition of the Libya Energy&Economic Summit – scheduled for November 8-9 in Tripoli’s Rixos Convention Centre. Media will have the opportunity to be at the center of this historic summit.
In partnership with the Office of the Prime Minister and with the support of the Ministry of Oil and Gas and the National Oil Corporation (NOC), this historic summit is poised to bring together leaders and participants from the energy, finance, trading and infrastructure sectors. The 2023 event follows the resounding success of its inaugural edition in 2021, which marked a historic milestone as the first major energy investment event held in Tripoli in a decade. Media representatives are invited to cover this second edition, one that promises to shape the future of Libya's energy landscape.
The two-day program features an official reception on November 8 with keynotes delivered from dignitaries as well as strategic panel discussions and presentations across two stages on November 9. The reception and summit feature keynotes from Libyan leaders including Abdulhamid M. Al Dabiba, Prime Minister of the State of Libya; Farhat Omar Bengdara, Chairman of the NOC; and Mohamed Oun, Minister of Oil and Gas of Libya.
International invited digitaries include Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of the Republic of Italy; Robert Abela, Prime Minister of the Republic of Malta; and Alparsian Bayraktar, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey.
The Libya Energy&Economic Summit 2023 is proud to work with sponsors TotalEnergies, BGN, Repsol, ConocoPhillips, Savannah Energy, OMV and more, and with official supporters Renewable Energy Association of Libya, AmCham Libya, Libyan British Business Association, U.S.-Libya Business Association, African Energy Chamber, and Rystad Energy.
Was about to caution your optimism even though I sense its a bit "tongue in cheek", but at least you seem a bit more relaxed than you were a few weeks back after the publication of earnings.
Good luck to all, and I sincerely hope our patience is rewarded.
“Savannah intend to publish an AIM Admission Document in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition on or before 15 December 2023.“
So if the deal were to close on 15th Dec, it could be 100 weeks of economic interest to SAVE if the effective date was 1/1/2021. As we know the purchase price was stated as up to $1,250m and we are hoping that a decent chunk of that will be paid post deal closure from future production. Obviously we would all like this number to be as high as possible but I’m sure Petronas will want a reasonable amount of cash (debt to ourselves) in order that we take our own fair share of risk in the deal, especially with the ongoing unrest in Sudan and possible threat to the export pipeline.
So let’s say we managed to agree $300m from future production, it would leave $950m, minus the economic interest calculation for the 100 week period. Over the last 100 weeks, I would guess that Brent has taveraged somewhere around $90 and I am assuming average daily production of 40k (I would hope a worst case number). Now if we were to be credited with $30 per barrel we would see a reduction from the $950m of $840m (100 weeks x 7 days x 40,000boepd x $30) leaving us with only $110m of debt.
If the conservative daily production number or $30 / barrel were to be slightly higher, we would clear the $950m in full.
These numbers seem a bit too good to be true, so I’d appreciate anybody on here marking my homework and commenting accordingly.
Just over 8.5 weeks to go…anybody thinking of arranging the £1 Christmas Party - PMSL
Thank you, JD; appreciated.
Let’s hope that Governments looking to award us contracts take all this great work we are doing into consideration when compared to our peers and sign on the dotted line. We know that the super 7 looking to divest assets take this seriously when selling to juniors, so we need to have all our sustainability ducks lines up (which we have in spades and some) but it’s the likes of Kiir and his ministers who need to value this stuff when making their final decisions and getting their Mont Blanc fountain pens out:-
#Savannah is delighted to announce that we have been shortlisted in the upcoming 2023 @IRSocietyUK Best Practice Awards for the ‘Best Communication of Sustainability’! The awards will be held on 21 November 2023 in London.
This award recognises year-round continued communications with investors and stakeholders, setting out the way that a company approaches the identification, assessment and management of sustainability-related opportunities, risks and performance, and, ultimately, how this underpins a company’s long-term resilience and sustainable growth. We are pleased to be recognised for our integrated approach to sustainability communications, focusing on our corporate purpose of delivering ‘#ProjectsthatMatter’ and underpinning our efforts to address energy poverty in Africa through both hydrocarbon AND renewable energy.
Read more about our sustainability.
2022 Sustainability Report bit.ly/3JLZYsn
2022 Savannah Energy TCFD Report bit.ly/3Qt2Fmx
2022 Savannah Energy SASB Report bit.ly/3Qf28Ep
#Sustainability
#BestPracticeAwards2023
#ProjectsthatMatter
Many thanks Rocky; and thanks for comments JDC.
Public info seems to indicate optimism around Nigeria & friends in the know say Naira / $ exchanges becoming a little more orderly if still a waiting game - both of which one imagines is constructive to refi, or in absence thereof allows for repayment month by month (with some months delay in swapping currencies) to see debt reduce.
Share JDC’s concern around Moscow protagonist(s) but hope Petronas stay true to their SPA agreement.
Nothing much to add - watching & waiting.
CYB - I will keep my ear to the ground. I overheard AK is still in Sth Sudan and is not currently in Sth Africa (yet?) - not clear if that's planned/unplanned, make of it what you will.
Many thanks also to Rocky for sharing the excellent IR post.
Thx for posting. Nice to gain some clarity about debt situation.
Slightly concerned about Kiir visit to Russia. I've read Russian translation of their statements on energy and potential funding of refinery. Of course Caltech announcement ...and then it's withdrawal and SSudan closer alignment with a sanctioned country must be a fluke or mere coincidence. Also multiple sackings in recent weeks in Kiir's government. Weirdly I still want the deal to close but it's a massive and risky step. 8 weeks and counting....
Enjoy reading the posts (silent) these last few years and this forum has some of the most astute observations. I have plenty of skin in this game.
cj
Thanks, Rocky. Very kind of you to share this.
I feel that Sally, understandably, has to toe the line here. That said, it's clear that the deal still has a pulse given her comments.
One other thing: I don't believe that the interims repeated that reference to another hydrocarbon deal closing by year-end. I may be reading too much into matters, but perhaps other deals may have fallen away.
I'm hoping that fellow poster JDC might find out the current state of Naira liquidity (in size) when mingling at the Africa Energy session in Cape Town. We'd love your insight, JD. In between glasses of Stellenbosch, of course.
Best wishes from Belgrade.
Rocky - just to reiterate, thanks very much for the update. You greatly contribute to keeping us all sane on here. The comment about the African energy arena being a roller coaster ride couldn't be truer - and being a true "save"r I often ask myself would I have it any other way? I have a theory that all save s'holders are thrill seekers as there is never a dull moment with so many dramatic ups and downs . atb
K - hi and good to see you here again. I like many other look for the clues on the way words are put together - but it is really hard to get 2 + 2 = 4. But from the long set of replies I posted, here are my quick take aways.
1 could be longer than I hoped for before we get to the 3 + 1 ICC rulings
2 at long last debt restructure does seem a lot closer (sigh of relief)
3 this is my main one by far. There is a sentence:- “ We plan to give a detailed strategic update for all investors around the publication of our Admission Document in Q4 2023.” I am not on about the 1st part of the sentence re strategic update! I am on about the “around the publication of our AD in Q4 2023”. I am hoping that they really do believe this will happen. Maybe it was just genuinely missed word but this bit did not have the word “expected publication”!!!
Anyway like Z says - just a big waiting game now. Maybe we will get debt RNS soon and maybe a few AI papers if they find out a few new snippets. Strange the Caltech stuff came and left like a hurricane with nothing being heard of it since. Strange old set up this African oil business stuff - but hey ho it is what it is. We could come back sub 20p or over a quid!!!
Thanks RR, as ever appreciate these updates.
'we would note that both ourselves and PETRONAS are continuing to engage fully with the Government of South Sudan and are all working together in country as we continue to progress the transaction to its expected completion.'
I guess they wouldn't be saying anything too different either way but the phrase 'expected completion' does suggest that it could be positive for us after all.
Thanks RR. Nothing much that I could add and just waiting out the timeline of the next 8 weeks. Hopefully news before then.
Cheers Rocky, so Naira debt restructure could happen anytime now excellent.
Really appreciate this info RR.
Fingers crossed for Naira facility (sounds positive) and South Sudan completion.
PART 3
3) PR
We are being given very minimal information with regards current activity and current / future strategy. We only hear from Andrew when he feels compelled to do so. Can I ask that you put together a Webcast / presentation to be delivered to PI's with a'live' Q&A and not pre-submitted questions? On this note can I also ask that Andrew speaks a bit slower and more clearly as when he's in Africa, I really struggle to understand what he says. I note that we were promised an informal night (meet the BOD) for PI's with nibbles etc which has not yet materialised. Could I please request that you put something on for us sometime in Q4?
We plan to give a detailed strategic update for all investors around the publication of our Admission Document in Q4 2023. We note your comment on the informal evening and will revert once an appropriate date has been considered.
Kind regards,
Sally
PART 2
We conduct thorough due diligence on all of our proposed acquisitions, whilst recognising that we operate in often challenging emerging market jurisdictions. We have a robust risk management framework in place to ensure that clear procedures for risk identification, assessment, measurement, mitigation, monitoring and reporting are aligned with Savannah’s strategic aims and the Board’s risk appetite – see pages 92-101 of our 2022 Annual Report for more details on our Risk Management.
How many cases do we have with the ICC, what is their current status and do any of them have hearing dates listed?
In relation to the nationalisation of our interests in Chad, we have three arbitrations seated with the ICC in Paris, and one seated with the ICC In London. These have been brought by our subsidiaries Savannah Chad Inc (“SCI”) and Savannah Midstream Investments Limited (“SMIL”). We will provide further updates as appropriate in relation to the progress of the various cases. However, these are currently at a relatively early stage in the process.
Are SAVE still looking to undertake new M&A in as I would like to see us sort out our core business before we take on any more risky, very expensive M&A activity? I'd like to see debt sorted, compression completed and new customers added in Nigeria before we take on any other deals. Personally I think we should work on a consolidation plan for a period of time.
As noted above, we expect to have the Naira transitional facility in place in Q4 2023. As noted in our Half Year 2023 results announcement, we are making good progress on the US$45 million compression project in Nigeria. Following the front-end engineering and the associated order of long lead items, detailed design work has commenced and is on track to be completed in Q4 2023, while startup is planned for mid-2024. We also added new customers in Nigeria and have seen continued momentum in H2 2023, with contract extensions secured with three customers, amounting to a total of up to 85 MMscfpd. Such is the strength of demand for gas in Nigeria that we were also pleased to reach an agreement with Amalgamated Oil Company Nigeria Limited (“AMOCON”) in the first half of this year, to purchase up to 20 MMscfpd of gas from them over the course of the next ten years. As mentioned in our CEO’s Letter to Shareholders in Savannah’s 2022 Annual Report, we continue to review M&A opportunities and will pursue those which we believe would be accretive for shareholders.
PART 1
Back from a stunning City break in Valencia now and pleased to have received a very comprehensive reply from Sally this morning. Personally I can’t fault the reply at all and am extremely grateful for such a detailed reply for which i have replied with my sincere thanks. I won’t analyse or comment on the words below but It would great to hear the views of the folk on here who know SAVE well - you know who you are LOL:-
1) Debt
We have known about this issue since the completion of the 7E RTO. We have also been working on it for in excess of two years with several 'expected dates' for closure missed. How on earth have we ended up in this situation whereby failure to renegotiate or refinance our current debt will seriously jeopardise the going concern of the whole company?
Why was this not completed to stabilise, underpin and safeguard the company before we embarked on our very risky M&A activities?
As you say this issue is not new, having been disclosed in our accounts since 2021. The refinancing of the debt acquired upon the Nigeria acquisition has taken longer than originally anticipated. However, as noted in our recent Half Year 2023 results announcement, we anticipate putting in place the Naira-denominated transitional facility during Q4 2023, with a term sheet already agreed with the lenders for this facility. We also do not consider that the current financing in any way jeopardises the financial stability of the company – we continue to adopt the going concern method of accounting and the audit opinion from BDO is not modified in this respect.
2) M&A
Having had a team of people conducting due diligence on over 20 potential opportunities in multiple countries, why did we decide to go in to 2 (Chad & South Sudan) of the most corrupt, dangerous and untrustworthy jurisdictions in Africa? With only Accugas underpinning the company, why did we not take on lower risk profile M&A opportunities before taking on these very cheap, very high risk deals?
What is going on with the South Sudan deal? After all the recent press speculation, why have SAVE not updated the market? If this press speculation had occurred while we were trading, the share price would have tumbled and I'm sure you'd have had to issue something. Why is this different while we are suspended?
As noted in our recent Half Year 2023 results announcement, we continue to advance the various workstreams required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited’s energy business in South Sudan (the “PETRONAS Acquisition”) and intend to publish an AIM Admission Document in respect of the PETRONAS Acquisition on or before 15 December 2023. Whilst we do not comment on press speculation, we would note that both ourselves and PETRONAS are continuing to engage fully with the Government of South Sudan and are all working together in country as we continue to progress the transaction to its expected completion.
Business in Cameroon) - Cameroonian lawyer Joseph Pagop Noupoué has been removed from his position as Country Managing Partner at the international accounting firm Ernst & Young (EY). A recent internal memo co-signed by Erik Watremez, the interim Country Managing Partner for Cameroon and Gabon, and Marcel Van Loo, EY's Western Europe Region Manager, cited policy violations as the reason for Noupoué's dismissal. The memo also stated that Noupoué is no longer employed by EY and is attempting to separate the Cameroonian legal entities from the global EY network, which his former partners do not agree with.
"We would like to reaffirm that EY's management in Cameroon has been restructured with Erik Watremez, Acting Country Managing Partner of EY Cameroon, Abdoulaye Mouchili, Head of Assurance EY Cameroon, and Anselme Patipewe, Head of Tax EY Cameroon. They will continue to lead EY's activities in Cameroon, meeting clients' needs in both audit and tax", the memo reads.
This change has raised questions, with some speculating that it may be connected to Noupoué's involvement with Savannah Energy, a British junior oil company. Noupoué, who is the sole known Cameroonian shareholder in Savannah Energy, was part of a recent diplomatic dispute between Cameroon and Chad. The dispute arose after Cameroon signed an agreement with the National Hydrocarbons Company of Cameroon to transfer 10% of Cotco assets, the company managing the Cameroonian section of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline. Chad claimed that Cameroon had engaged in unfriendly actions by contracting with a "fishy" group associated with Cameroonian figures who were challenging Chad's nationalized oilfields following Exxon Mobil's departure.
Noupoué's involvement with Savannah Energy became official when he was appointed as a non-executive director on the company's board in April 2023. He was also named to succeed Steve Jenkins, Savannah Energy's current non-executive chairman, who plans to retire after serving eight years in the position. To join the company's decision-making body, Noupoué purchased 6,095,726 new shares at £1.6 million (about CFA1.2 billion). This acquisition gives him a 0.46% stake in the company's total voting rights. The source of funds for this acquisition remains undisclosed.
"I am delighted to be joining Savannah at this key time in its growth and look forward to bringing my experience to the role. I would like to thank the outgoing Chairman, Steve Jenkins, for guiding this company since 2014 and I look forward to working with him, the rest of the Board, and the management team to achieve our many and wide-ranging goals. It's very clear to me that Savannah is ambitious and fueled by a passion for doing good in the world. The benefits Savannah has brought to the African community in Nigeria and Niger, and the projects for Cameroon and South Sudan, are impressive and obvious," he commented following his appointment.
https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-manag
I’m sure this will get sorted but it’s jut a matter of time. I think our projects will also be fine but god knows what delays we will have to put up with.
“ Algeria has announced it has suspended its efforts to mediate the political crisis in Niger following the coup in July.
Its foreign affairs ministry said in a statement on Monday that declarations from Nigerien authorities had raised “legitimate questions about their real willingness to follow through on their acceptance of Algerian mediation”.
It has now put the process on hold pending commitment from the junta to continue with the mediation.
Last month, Niger accepted Algeria’s offer to mediate in its political crisis aimed at returning the country to constitutional rule.
In August, Algeria had proposed a six-month transition period led by a civilian authority.
But the head of the junta, Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, who seized power in July, wanted a three-year transition period.
Algeria had also objected to a military solution to the crisis in Niger following threats by the regional bloc Ecowas of a possible military intervention to restore democracy.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is also the chairman of the regional bloc, had welcomed the mediation process, but this latest development will further frustrate efforts to resolve the political crisis in Niger.”
With rising oil prices it would be nice to have some to sell 🤔
With growing energy demand and a determined effort to exploit its abundant natural resources, the country finds itself at a pivotal moment where innovation, environmental management and economic progress converge.
“Tapping into Niger’s rich hydrocarbon reserves and exploiting its abundant renewable energy potential are not only crucial steps for the country’s sustainable development, but also a means of consolidating its role as an energy leader in the region. Increased investment and infrastructure development will not only boost Niger's economic growth, but will also significantly contribute to the energy security and environmental sustainability of the entire West African region. , says NJ Ayuk, executive president of the AEC.
Minister Barké's statements promise to be a highlight of AEW 2023, providing a unique perspective on Niger's role in the global energy landscape and its journey towards a sustainable and prosperous future.
AEW is the AEC’s annual conference, exhibition and networking event. AEW 2023 will bring together African energy decision-makers and stakeholders with global investors to discuss and maximize opportunities across the continent’s energy sector. For more information on AEW 2023, visit https://aecweek.com
https://aecweek.com/le-ministre-nigerien-du-petrole-des-mines-et-de-lenergie-se-joint-a-aew-2023-pour-presenter-le-programme-energetique-durable-du-pays/
Mahaman Moustapha Barké, Nigerien Minister of Oil, Mines and Energy, will meet other regional ministers and global investors during the African Energy Week in his active search for investments for Niger's sustainable development.
Niger is making significant progress towards its sustainable development. The country has huge proven reserves of oil and gas, as well as significant deposits of minerals and untapped renewable energy resources. As global attention increasingly turns to environmental preservation and equitable economic progress, Niger's energy sector is emerging as a focal point for investment opportunities.
As such, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) is pleased to announce the participation of the new Nigerien Minister of Oil, Mines and Energy, Mahaman Moustapha Barké, as a keynote speaker at the Africa Energy Week (AEW) conference and exhibition, scheduled for October 16-20 in Cape Town. Minister Barké will highlight the opportunities and challenges of Niger’s dynamic energy sector while providing valuable insights into promising investment prospects that can propel sustainable development in the region.
As one of the largest countries in West Africa, Niger has significant surface water resources in regions such as the Niger River Basin and the Lake Chad Basin, as well as a wealth of mineral resources, including uranium, gold, coal and oil. The country's main economic activities include agriculture, livestock, fishing and handicrafts, with exports including oil, uranium, gold, livestock, etc. As a major player in uranium and oil production, Niger, led by Minister Barké, is poised to further develop its energy sector, with ambitious goals for sustainable development.
In line with its sustainability objectives, Niger is actively diversifying its investment landscape by developing its renewable energy sector. The country has attracted considerable investor interest, driven by its abundant solar and wind resources. Savannah Energy Niger Solar notably concluded an agreement with the government to develop two solar power plants with a total capacity of 200 MW. This initiative follows a 2022 agreement between the same company and the government for a 250 MW wind project. These renewable energy initiatives will significantly improve sustainability and strengthen energy security in Niger.
Meanwhile, on the oil front, Niger is expected to begin crude oil exploitation by the end of 2023, marking a significant milestone in its oil production journey. The flagship Niger-Benin oil pipeline project is almost complete, with 98% progress. This project will increase Niger's crude production to 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) and provide access to global markets via an export terminal on Benin's Seme coast. Currently, Niger produces 20,000 b/d from the Agadem block, operated by the Chinese National Oil Company (CNPC), processed locally at the Zinder refinery.
Seplat founder banks on buying assets from TotalEnergies and Equinor to revive his career
French oil major TotalEnergies is reportedly on the verge of selling part of its Nigerian oil assets. The former CEO of Seplat, Austin Avuru, is in pole position to acquire them.
Austin Avuru, the founder and former CEO of Seplat, is considered as a preferred bidder in the process of buying TotalEnergies' 10% stake in the oil blocks of the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) joint venture, Shell's Nigerian subsidiary.
If Avuru wins with his firm Chappal, he would take over part of an asset representing 10% of Nigeria's domestic gas and almost 30% of the country's production. Added to this are 3,000km of pipelines in the Niger Delta, as well as two export terminals.
Two simultaneous deals
Avuru has the added advantage of being very well-connected to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's power base. In June, he was appointed a member of the energy and natural resources sub-committee of the new head of state's advisory council, alongside Tinubu's special adviser on energy, Olu Verheijen (AI, 30/06/23).
However, Chappal's interest in deals could prove to be a drawback. At the same time, it has also won preferred bidder status in the bid to acquire the assets of Norway's Equinor in Nigeria - essentially the 20.2% stake in the giant Agbami field operated by Chevron. Yet it may be difficult for Chappal, which does not yet own a single asset, to complete both purchases simultaneously.
If the purchase of TotalEnergies' shares is confirmed, Avuru could find himself in partnership with his former employer, Seplat, which has been bidding for the 30% stake in SPDC that Shell has been trying to sell since 2022.
Shell stalls for its 30% stake
In addition to Seplat - which is currently busy with its unsuccessful takeover of ExxonMobil's shallow water oil blocks - a number of other companies are also in the running to buy Shell's 30% stake in SPDC: Heirs Holdings (owned by banker Tony Elumelu), Sahara Energy (the trading subsidiary of Sahara Group led by Tope Shonubi) and ND Western (comprising Niger Delta Petroleum and, among others, Beninese businessman Samuel Dossou-Aworet).
Elumelu has approached Tullow Oil and Gran Tierra Energy to form a trio capable of financing a deal worth nearly $3bn, as we revealed (AI, 07/04/22).
Despite this clear interest in its SPDC interests, Shell has apparently decided to give itself more time before completing the transaction.