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Https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/savannah_energy_plc/news/rns/story/xq8nklx/export
Also what about this from the RNS on 28th March?
The Company will provide a more detailed update regarding the ongoing process to complete the transaction during the course of next week.
Apologies to you, RockyRide: I wrote RockyRoad in my note below.
I also left out the need for a detailed update on the entire liability side of the balance sheet. Step up, Nick, please.
I fully concur on IR: I feel more knowledgeable than they are, tbh.
AGM might end up like the Smithfield Market scene out of The Long Good Friday; or an old Eurotunnel AGM. Sadly, I won't be there in person.
But after many months of my SAVE shares showing a nil value in my AJ Bell accounts, they’re now showing at the SP of around where they were suspended all those months ago (circa 26p). Perhaps we’re about to re-list? I live in hope. To think I originally invested shortly after the company came to market with promises of riches in Niger & a dividend to start to be paid in 2019 (from memory). How things have changed & I share many of the frustrations recently posted here. I really don’t think AK gives tuppence for his retail shareholders. Prove us wrong AK please!
CYB Excellent and thanks for conveying this on all of our behalfs.
CYB - brilliant and I’ve been pushing back to IR quite hard in recent times. Sally does not like the hard questions and has disengaged now. The comms from the company has been disgraceful IMO. If there is a reason why they have had to go radio silence with NOMAD agreement - then simply let us know.
Yes it’s a big wish, but if there is a reason they’ve been allowed to go silent on EVERYTHING, maybe just maybe, there could be some fantastic news that they have not put out yet such as signing of other large SPA’s for example.
All we can do is wait and use the AGM as a mechanism for getting our points over and using our votes. Nothing that it will make a great deal of difference with >60% of shares held by II’s / BOD but maybe a few of us get together to put our concerns forward to the AGM and also to agree on how we will contest on each resolution.
2/2
The current level of engagement is woeful. Management need to respect shareholders if they want their support.
Ends.
1. You have a large number of long-term shareholders who are deeply dissatisfied with business progress and level of engagement on a number of fronts. Read recent comments on this bulletin board from me, TrustILie, RockyRoad, Zengas and StreetsOfGold, amongst others.
2. Suspension from trading is not an excuse for lack of communication on operating businesses and financial updates.
3. In AK's 31 Dec 2021 presentation to shareholders, quarterly operational updates were proposed. There have been none. Who has advised you to stop communication with investors? Why?
4. It is understood that South Sudan and Chad-Cameroon updates are not possible. This does not give you an excuse not to update on Nigeria and Niger. It does not give you an excuse not to provide operational and financial updates.
5. I (together with another shareholder) wrote to you at length in April with a list of questions and requested an operational update in May. The very short response from IR, flagging the publication of the 2023 financials and little more was wholly inadequate. I do not even know if either Andrew or Nick has read my letter.
6. If all we can expect is more of the same in terms of communication, I propose saving the overhead of an IR team and putting the money to work elsewhere.
7. I'll be voting against the reappointment of the NEDs in the AGM (except the incoming chairman) for failing to hold management to account on investor communication.
8. As Zengas pointed out on this BB, the Niger assets have been there for years and we still have close to zero visibility to first oil.
9. What, if anything, is going on with the renewables projects?
10. Where is the detailed explanation of the highly material impact of Naira volatility on cash held and on future receivables? Where on Earth are we on the debt restructuring? A single sentence that it remains wip is unacceptable.
11. The AGM will rightly be deeply dysfunctional if these issues aren't addressed in advance. Filibustering will not do. Andrew and Nick should both be there in person and both should make presentations.
12. Finally, I'm reposting an excerpt from Zengas' recent post. Please take note.
"Seriously, come results/agm there needs to be a credible plan of action. Six months of this year will be gone. We are not a charity no matter how much the company claims societal good. It's just no longer credible or acceptable to be doing nothing of meaningful size. To go back to my opening lines, 10 years is shameful and any further waffling about future intended plans will no longer wash. Management need a collective boot in the hole re this fiasco of a situation not to mention their divergence to wind and solar while the oil assets there go nowhere fast. I intend to voice this directly to them and i urge other shareholders to do the same that this situation in my view is no longer acceptable and can't be dodged come results/agm."
The current level of
Z - what ever it is - I can only take it as a slight positive. As we know we only do large deals as small deals come with just as much hassle…
RR
It's an interesting one at this moment in time. Maybe in anticipation of S.Sudan or a further acquisition but clearly for Oil & Gas.
It can't be related to the Sipec acquisition announced in March as that is being acquired by - Savannah Energy SC ltd.
" The SIPC SPA will see ****Savannah Energy SC Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of Savannah)**** acquire a 75% equity interest in SIPEC for cash consideration of US$52 million, payable on completion and subject to customary adjustments for a transaction of this nature from 1 September 2023.. The Jagal SPA will see ****Savannah Energy SC Limited**** acquire a 25% equity interest in SIPEC."
Comparing the Major shareholding info with the last one before suspension:
Ingalls & Snyder have added an extra 4m
Abrdn have reduced by 20.5m and Ruffer LLP have increased by 20.5m so presumably some sort of transfer.
Everything else is the same.
Sounds interesting Z - what do you read in to that? Floating a separate company?????
Savannah Energy Oil & Gas Ltd incorporated at Companies house on the 25th April 2024.
Major shareholders on the company website updated yesterday .
Zen - re your post yesterday about the lack of progress in Niger, I can see why the company changed strategy and decided to wait for the pipeline instead of trucking 1 or 2 k day by road. However, I think we will see progress now and fully expect a plan t b announced at the next strategy update ( along with approval of SS!! here's hoping!)
In recognition of yesterday’s World Day for Safety and Health at Work 2024, Savannah reaffirms our commitment to embedding a strong health and safety culture across the organisation through our robust policies and practices, in line with Pillar 2 of our sustainability strategy – Ensuring Safe and Secure Operations and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 3 – Good health and well-being, and 8 – Decent work and economic growth.
On 11 September 2023, we were especially proud to achieve one million working hours without a Lost Time Injury (“LTI”) across our business operations in Nigeria. An LTI refers to any incidents which resulted in our people or contractors being unable to work due to an injury sustained at work. We continuously refresh our training and development opportunities to reinforce our commitment to an injury-free working environment for our people, contractors, suppliers and visitors. meaning that none of our people or contractors were unable to work due to an injury sustained at work.
Celebrating one million working hours without an LTI at Savannah's Uquo Central Processing Facility, Nigeria.
Agree. This goes back to RR’s points about lack of any material Updates from IR by way of RNSs and his frustration (shared with many shareholders) about the quality and usefulness of last year’s AGM, in response to CYB’s points from post “Repost: December 2021 presentation”.
As CYB mentioned in that post / company presentation linked to post, the company shared in that ppt solid information about asset & liability side of biz, and promised quarterly updates. Not confidential matters but BAU. We’ve not received anything approaching this since.
Going back to the presentation - slide 11 - bottom lhs of slide table on pricing of debt (and refinance dates) from memory - agree with TIL - we definitely want repayment of expensive $ debt versus divi but I’d prefer debt repayment vs share buy back.
Thank you TIL - really interesting.
I must have missed the RNS…
Zengas - One thing I would like to add is if they are unable to secure another acquisition, and are unable to re-finance the accugas debt. Than my personal choice would be any cash which is considered spare and by spare I mean cash not needed for Accugas and Niger work programmes should be used to pay down the accugas debt as aggressively as possible or share buybacks. Personally not a huge fan of dividends at our current valuation and feel that paying down the accugas debt above the usual payments or share buybacks will be more pleasing to shareholders in terms of growth.
Just to add, it might be too much to expect all good fortune to line up, but with those 3 country assets performing at that indicated level, a positive meaningful compensation award in the next 12 months or so could potentially leave us net debt free.
No operational or financial update at the start of the year for 2024 so looking back to the half year end June 2023 we produced an average 138.5 mmcf/d
Total 6 month revenues were $138.7m invoiced including oil so pro-rata could be about $270-$275m although it was guided as being greater than $235m for all 2023. Also they said the 20/4/23 $44.9m from Cameroon for a 10% pipeline sale was received.
If there is another hit from the exch-rate, it should be tempered by the capex being reduced by $30m ($60m down to $30m).
Net debt at 30/6/23 was $443m (Where are we almost 12 months on?)
Since then - we're paying around $60m for SIPEC with $52m of that to be adjusted down to an effective date of 1/1/23.
8.7 mmbo 2P and 227 Bcf gas ( 46 mmboe total).
Sipec is producing 1400 bopd which at $80/b is about $41m year so we could have $15m knocked off our settlement price in 3 months time.
So perhaps net debt on this new acquisition = $45m by end of August.
If our existing oil/gas revenue is about $270m, this new acquisition at the current production level would take it to about $310m.
Within 12 months of deal completion the combined Stubb Creek oil output is due to rise by another 2,000 bopd which would give us an additional $60m/yr revenue at an $80/b oil price.
So without any additional gas sales revenue, we could be around $370m revenue from Nigeria alone with the additional oil sales and our access to dollars for a dividend.
I'd really be looking to that deal being approved asap which i think would help our overall refinancing of Accugas debt. If nothing else that new income stream would radically improve our net debt position and steer us to a future dividend with no other asset contribution.
Niger 33 mmbo 2C to 2P reserves on sanction.
Attaining 1,000 - 5,000 bopd has to add $29m - $146m revenue at $80/b
Above is a pathway to $500m revenue at little additional cost and reducing the net debt that we have.
-------------
South Sudan
After almost 1.5 years the purchase price has to be greatly reduced.
50,000 bopd at $70 -$75/b oil could be $1250m - $1360m revenue/yr.
If South Sudan debt is also ringfenced, i can definitely see without doubt why this is a major asset to go after regardless of the difficulties next door and the annoyance to some shareholders (i include my self but i see the prize as well despite lack of newsflow).
If it could get back to ramping up it's last few years of oil decline, it could mean 75-100,000 bopd net here.
----------
Overall we're not in a bad place imho. The Sipec deal is a very good revenue bolt on so they're not sitting still. It also gives us a lot more gas. They just need to get Niger into gear and if we really want reserves growth there we need to pay for exploration or else get a drilling partner in. It could really be unlocked if S.Sudan goes through so maybe why there is little newsflow on Niger.
Zengas - Totally agree I think the company now has to deliver substantial / material news flow considering we will be suspended for over 18 months possibly even longer.
To put it into context Afentra was thereabout 25/26p in December 2022 now near 50p and Seplat our Nigerian peer was around 85p and now close to 160p. So these 2 companies are a classic example of seeing close to a 100% share price growth over the same period.
In similar context if we are to have parity growth over the same period than we deserve a minimum price growth up to 50p, and if we are to be fully diluted 1.4 billion shares that would equate to a market cap of circa £700m, how the company is able to deliver this growth will be interesting, now whether they can materially increase accugas output well beyond 200 mmscfd, start aggressive Niger exploration and production or deliver through another acquisition, but that's minimum that needs to occur
Looks like Deal approvals in Nigeria are gathering pace -
Nigeria
ENI sale of NAOC to Oando imminent
After concluding a months-long assessment, the Nigerian upstream regulator is expected to authorise the transaction in the coming days. The acquisition means the company led by President Tinubu's nephew will nearly double its oil reserves. [...]
https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2024/04/29/eni-sale-of-naoc-to-oando-imminent,110220658-art
If the ENI to Oando deal is approved than the Seplat / Exxon Deal and also the Shell / Renaissance could also be imminent. Perhaps there is never a better time than to strike another deal in Nigeria, whilst the government could be about to start an approvals spree.
The company has to do all in it's power to get another Nigerian deal over the line seems like the investment environment there is relatively more friendly albeit still drawn out.
In exactly 3 months (1/8/24) we will be entering our 11th year as a listed company.
It is pretty galling that after all this time ie 10 years, not a single barrel of oil has flowed in Niger whether for production or under test.
The entire PSC terms were used up and the only saving grace was that they were converted into one before they expired . But already 2 years is almost come and gone under those new terms.
"The Company anticipates that the R1234 PSC will become effective in Q1 2022 and will reset the Company's licence validity to up to 10 years for the exploration phase, comprising an initial term of four years, with the option to extend this term by two further terms of two years each. In addition, one of these three terms can be extended by the Company for a further two years. " (Since stated in the annual report as completed in H1 2022).
Quite simply if they don't get their act together, patience will grow thin not only by investors but the host country under different regime management.
There was countless $millions raised for Niger.
We were told 2.8 billion bls mid case recoverable with the sokor alternances being the low lying fruit as proven by our own 100% success rate and the Chinese at 75%+ creating over 1 billion bls reserves.
The export pipeline is operational.
Quite simply what the eff is the excuse come the results in June and agm July if they haven't got a plan in place to significantly drive this forward.
Either bring a partner in with deep pockets or just keep time wasting where we ultimately don't benefit at all by delays and tracts of the PSC are relinquished under the PSC terms ?.
Seriously, come results/agm there needs to be a credible plan of action. Six months of this year will be gone. We are not a charity no matter how much the company claims societal good. It's just no longer credible or acceptable to be doing nothing of meaningful size. To go back to my opening lines, 10 years is shameful and any further waffling about future intended plans will no longer wash. Management need a collective boot in the hole re this fiasco of a situation not to mention their divergence to wind and solar while the oil assets there go nowhere fast. I intend to voice this directly to them and i urge other shareholders to do the same that this situation in my view is no longer acceptable and can't be dodged come results/agm.
The charts I am referring to is on the CPR document released in March 2024
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/03/Nigeria-Competent-Persons-Report-18-March-2024.pdf
I was just looking at 2 interesting charts to see if there is anything that catches my eye and 2 charts particularly caught my eye, please see below:
1) Figure 4-2 Uquo Field production forecast profiles page 41 shows our production from roughly mid 2024 should be 190 MMScfd = 33,676 BOEPD.
2) Figure 4-4 Stubb Creek production forecast profiles page 43 shows our production being 5,000 BOPD from Stubb Creek
If those forecast are as accurate considering that were released in the CPR as latest at March 2024, than I expect us to between 35,000 - 40,000 Boepd by close of this year, unless i have misinterpreted what the chart is trying to tell. That doesn't factor in any production from Niger.
In that context our Accugas Contracts:
Long-term GSAs in place with the Calabar power plant (131 MMscf/d) and Lafarge cement plant (24.2 MMscf/d)
The GSAs have a combined 155.2 MMscf/d Daily Contract Quantity (DCQ) with an 80% Take-or-Pay provision
Additional interruptible GSAs are in place with:
Central Horizon Gas Company (CHGC), an Axxela subsidiary, for up to 10 MMscf/d
Notore Chemical Industries for up to 10 MMscf/d
Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) for up to 3 MMscf/d
Shell Nigeria Gas Limited (SNG) for up to 3 MMscf/d