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Why is South Sudan links to the Chad termination rns? Am I missing something or are they that careless?
Well i hope they took my 'boot in the hole' post seriously on the 29th April, the fact that the same old same wouldn't wash come the agm and Cautionyourblasts open letter to directors on the 1st May on this board and the urge for other shareholders to vent their displeasure (if they feel likewise) before the results - that we need change and action and after 10 years of no movement in value despite having world class assets that this can't continue (particularly the lack of progress on Niger and the entire 10 years passing on the PSCs with not a barrel of oil flowed, tested or sold).
Hopefully they try to head us off at the pass so to speak with some pre-emptive news to calm us restless LTHs. I'm sure there are bound to be at least a minority of IIs who also want to see them up their game.
Love all your posts Trust. Thanks.
The profile of the South Sudan acquisition on the new website, is at the very least, intriguing. Why give such prominence to this adventure, if the wheels are about to fall off this particular wagon? I’m reading this as a positive. development.
Is this the plan for Niger as per the updated website
https://www.savannah-energy.com/operations/niger/market-opportunity/
Interesting Looks like Savannah Energy has a new website which has just gone live, looks like they have enhance some design work etc.............
https://www.savannah-energy.com/
Looks like CNPC playing a big role in mediation and initiated first loading
Benin-Niger Pipeline: Talon authorises the first load
The Minister of Water and Mines, Samou Séidou Adambi, was in the afternoon of Wednesday, May 15 in front of Beninese media men. The objective of this press briefing, which he jointly hosted with the Chinese delegation, was to decide on the Benin-Niger Pipeline project. During this media release, the ministerial authority announced that Benin intends to play its partition under this agreement. "We have decided to authorise the loading of the first ship that anchors in our waters. Benin has no intention of harming the interests of the State of Niger or those of our common partner," said the ministerial authority.
This authorisation follows a letter from Nigerian customs to Beninese customs. The tone has not ceased to be harsh on the Benin side. According to the Minister, this authorisation will not be a rule of conduct for the operation of the Benin-Niger Pipeline. He also informed in his statement that an inter-state meeting will take place as part of the continuation of this project. The meeting was requested by the Chinese Wapco Society.
The objective is to examine urgent topics related to the proper conduct of operating operations. As a reminder, in the past week, Benin decided to block the embarcation of Nigerian oil from the Sèmè Kpodji platform in Benin where the pipeline lands. This decision was justified by the Beninese number one during an interview, the entirety of which was broadcast by the Presidency of the Republic on its Youtube channel.
https://lanouvelletribune.info/2024/05/pipeline-benin-niger-talon-autorise-le-premier-chargement/
Breaking news | Benin, Niger
Beijing dispatches delegation to Cotonou in bid to reach deal over CNPC oil
Breaking news published on 15/05/24, at 12:45 pm GMT - Patrice Talon quietly welcomed a Chinese delegation on the morning of 15 May. Its aim is to help broker a deal between Niamey and Cotonou on the thorny Agadem oil dossier.
A delegation including Chinese officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Energy, as well as executives from China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), is currently in Cotonou. Their mission is to settle the crisis between Benin and Niger over the Agadem oil field, which the Chinese state-owned company operates. The delegation arrived in the Beninese capital on the evening of 14 May, accompanied by the Chinese ambassador to Benin, Peng Jingtao, and was received in the morning of 15 May by President Patrice Talon. Benin's energy minister, Samou Séidou Adambi, and its foreign minister, Adjadi Bakar, were also present. In the course of the meeting, the Beninese side was persuaded to allow the filling of the first tanker with Nigerien crude.
Talon publicly had made it known last week that the crude oil from Agadem, which is being transported via a recently completed pipeline, would not be transferred to a tanker at the Beninese port of Sémè until the land border with Niger is reopened by Niamey (AI, 10/05/24). That border has been closed since the July 2023 coup d'état in Niger led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani.
Time is of the essence
The Nigerien junta is relying heavily on the $400m in pre-financing promised by CNPC, pledged against future shipments of crude oil from Agadem. But so far, not a single dollar has been disbursed.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: the tanker responsible for loading the first cargo of Agadem crude oil entered Benin's territorial waters on 14 May. The 275m-long vessel named Front Cascade is registered in the Marshall Islands and has a capacity of 130,000 tonnes of crude oil, or 900,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The pipeline between Agadem and Sémè, completed a few weeks ago, is set to transport some 90,000 bpd from the Agadem fields. These fields have supplied Niger's Zinder refinery (20,000 bpd) since 2011.
59p will do for me. A distance away. Dream.
Respect Zengas, thanks for sharing , will be a way better feeling with stock price at 60p
Zengas all the way. Amazing as usual. Thank you Sir Zeng.
Good post cyb, been thinking about your ugly financials point.
I posted on 21-3-24 and allowed no change/reduction in net debt since end June 2023 of $443.4m given the exc-rate/interest rate etc and left this at $443m
At the end of June 2023 net debt = $443.4m
To me i Implied no change in net debt with profit being taken up by the above in a worst case over the last 12 months. This was taking into account capex reduced by $30m as well.
Also if that level of net debt had not decreased i expected it to move up due to the Sipec acquisition announced in March which was for $59.5m less almost 7 months effective date reduction for 75% of the cost = approx $55m new net debt (though this won't have completed by mid year accounts next month).
This was potentially moving the net debt including the Sipec completion to $498m.
We don't know what the revenue is or if there is any increase in output over the last 12 months to improve that scenario i've pencilled in for myself.
I had a combined (net) valuation for Uquo/Stubb Creek 2P/2C including Sipec of $439.4m and $636.3m for Accugas = $1075.7m = 59.7p/share less 27.6p share for the increased net debt of $498m (my estimate) = 32p share net for Nigeria ops.
While SAVE did say the $59.5m acquisition of Sipec was being funded by a new bank facility from Stndard Bank of South Africa, they did say it would also be financed by the 'existing cash resources of the company' so perhaps it's not looking as bad as first though if they have cash to spare. However time will tell.
My 29/4/24 post on the Sipec deal would add about $41m/yr revenue.
Within 12 months of the the deal being approved this would add a further $60m revenue.
Ie $100m additional revenue stream from Sipec at approx $80/b pricing plus there's a small Brent premium.
Imo this small Sipec acquisition on it's own could transform the net debt/repayments fairly quickly not to mention Accugas putting out more sales gas to additional customers.
Nigeria imo net debt free is 59.7p as above or rounded basically 60p share. (32p + 28p debt = 60p). This is where i see us without any of the other assets considered but i think the additional Nigerian asset should address what i see as a possible mediocre/bad past year in Nigeria and heres to a speedy closure of that deal
Ahh Relist, the million dollar question.
You cleverly didn’t say when to relist :)
Nigerian debt to be sorted by the time we relist.
Indeed so much news anticipated lets hope its all positive
I agree with one of the posters that the financials will be pretty ugly. Who knows how low the Naira will go and or for how long more.
It’s obvious there’s still no SS approval. Was it ever even close I wonder?
Rockyride - On a deal cancel scenario a business update would have to be given on re-listing as we have been suspended for over 18 months, so even if there is a deal cancel scenario than they would have to either release a comprehensive business update or FY23 accounts.
Hence even if we are heading down deal cancel scenario, one would expect to either extend this Friday or if the accounts are ready release the accounts Savannah may seek to extend even if they know that is the scenario just by a few additional weeks in order to get the FY23 accounts out and than terminate deal.
And the NGN back tracking currently at 1,515. Nearly back to square one - 1,624 the all time low. Yes I’m sure they need to give a new date by Friday at the latest, or announce deal done pending 2 sets of accounts being released in June, or of course the possibility that deal cancelled.
I originally started building my stake here years ago with an investment timeline of December 2024 - wow what a long and tough Lourdes this has become with so much tied up in this stock.
A balanced PF is definitely more powerful than I’d have ever thought. Different sectors across different continents definitely the order of the day.
If SS closes and oil is flowing again - I wonder if we will see a dividend announcement?
...an RNS this week setting out a revised cancellation date. The 5 April RNS doesn't do this, so an extension date needs to be published.
Whilst I'm here, I agree with scotpak's sound assessment on the somewhat shrill Chad government statement. It's interesting that Chad seems to be
(unjustifiably) painting Exxon as a bad guy as well as Savannah. All that matters is the final settlement which should be about a year away. The Chadians either nicked the asset from us or from Exxon. Worst case is we get our Exxon debt extinguished, I think. But I think we'll do better than that. Injunctive action on cargoes post-ruling...
Finally, Andrew can diffuse the AGM by going through country-by-country setting out what he can and stating clearly when he cannot (for reasons of legal confidentiality or commercial sensitivity). I expect the financials to be extremely ugly. However, with the untaken Nigerian gas and unreleased Cameroonian dividends, deferred revenue (whether Cameroon is recognised on balance sheet or disclosed in the Country Review section) might approach half a billion dollars. Crikey.
Great find.
I would think it is fair to imagine AK is as frustrated and exasperated as many on here re the SS situation
We all need Trust. Otherwise it’s no hope. Good evening to all savers with commendable saintly patience.
Excellent find, TIL - thanks so much for sharing!
TrustILie wins the Olympic gold medal in squirrelling out Savannah info and generously sharing it.
I'm very grateful and I doubt I'm the only one. 🙏
The article states that the pipeline is a major boon for CNPC and savannah energy let’s hope this Benin border dispute gets resolved soon and Savannah release a compprehensive plan for Niger as part of full year accounts
Africa Pipeline Alert! – The Niger-Benin mega pipeline has transported its first Nigerien oil to the Seme Krake oil terminal in Benin. However, the oil remains within the pipeline due to a border dispute. Benin has said that Niger has closed its border with Benin, causing an increase in smuggling. As a result, Benin is refusing to allow Nigerien crude to be offloaded at the terminal. The pipeline runs 1,275 km from the Agadem oil field to the SORAZ refinery in Niger and then extends 675 km to the Port Seme terminal in Benin.
Niger is a landlocked country with severe infrastructure constraints. The new pipeline has a capacity of 110,000 bbl/d, with up to 90,000 bbl/d of this being exported from Seme and the remainder supplying SORAZ. The pipeline is a major boon for CNPC International Ltd. (operator of Agadem) and Savannah Energy (operator of the R1/R2/R3/R4 development), as it will provide easier access to international markets.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/welligence_africa-pipeline-alert-the-niger-benin-activity-7196108914524930049-cY5m?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios