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Agadem/RR & CYB - Many thanks your thoughts & comments.
RR - particularly interested in your list of topics covered with IR as, without wishing to get too OCD, I read it as a bit of a blend - partly items discussed, partly your hope / wish list for 2024…but it’s a bit tricky to understand which items you covered with IR and which points are your/our shareholder hopes. All of which I agree are key points of course, with exception of the dividend. Think
Latter more important in 25-26 when special divi of CC ICC Award sum should be contemplated.
One of the things IR should now be able to confirm or correct is the previously posted / discussed news publication of the June 2025 ICC hearing. So I’m curious as to whether this was discussed.
IR should also be able to share the CPF completion date and modeled numbers - quantum of base case more gas, % increase in base case of sales, etc. appreciate not actual. But to your point, this is our sole jewel in the crown at present, so some hint on this might be helpful for patient shareholders who have received very little info for a long time on the underlying business.
CYB - I’m assuming “ It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.” relates to the Take or Pay contracts. You’re right that this is again something an Operational Update should cover.
Thanks for sharing that Komakino, that’s really, really interesting.
I had hoped for the Tribunal to sit at least 3-4 months before that, perhaps Feb’25, but my guess is that the number of matters in dispute and/or amalgamated into one arbitration may mean that although the case is a relatively simply case of direct expropriation by the Chadian government, the matter had become more complex in scope - eg including midstream CC matters etc. My guess only.
Under the new ICC rules incorporated there is a time limit on publication of award after hearing. From memory the ICC Arbitration Rules 2021 include a deadline of six months from the last signature to the terms of reference. If memory serves and this is correct this means we’re looking at publication within H2 2025. My guess only.
I’m telling myself today is one of those Harry Enfield “calm down, calm down” moments. These deadlines can take on a life of their own and I can get overly focussed on a dreamt up date, when many factors are not in the company’s control. But the truth is that although obviously a successful SS announcement today would be a fantastic end to the week, shareholders will actually just be very pleased to hear in a few weeks on a successful Gabon SPA(!?) and then later - it may take even a month or two more - on a successful SS government approval, if that’s the way it goes, as I postulated in my lengthy(!) 16 Feb post - i commented that on Gabon the parties are much more motivated from a timeline perspective and we may be pleasantly surprised that Gabon beats our SS Gov approval / success. But who knows, I’m just relying on public info that TIL has really helpfully dug up and shared. Interesting though that the pressure to close in Gabon continues…
On SS, President Kiir will have a terrific story to tell his electorate at the signing ceremony (and later at the run up to election) when he replaces an investor who is not willing to ramp up investment in multiple SS oilfields with SAVE who will sweat the assets and invest in the assets more - so delivering to the SS government greater oil revenues. Revenues which are desperately needed by the people.
In the meantime a really thorough Operational Update would be good but I am guessing we may be waiting til June for this - sadly.
I’m also thinking about the AGM in June. Which I hope follows some success in the above (Gabon and SS).
It’s going to be key that the CFO (in person, not on a dial in) takes us through a really thorough presentation on assets, and liabilities, country by country, across each business line - hydrocarbons and renewables. With a really clear breakdown. There is much that can be shared about the business which is not subject to arbitral confidentiality.
CYB posted the ppt recently on this bulletin board from Dec’21 (from memory). That sort of thorough ppt updated and presented at the AGM would be welcome and frankly expected. But more importantly, a proper Finance ppt is called for.
It will be very important that CEO and CFO are there in person, sharing from each of their perspectives the business. We know we’re an “And not Or” company, we know we’re a company doing hydrocarbons AND renewables, “projects that matter” etc, we all believe this. so no more than 2 minutes on this please!
Thanks TIL. V encouraging!
Thanks CYB. Hopefully this is the final bilateral meeting between Petronas & SS Government before confirming sale with ministerial sign off and a Presidential signing ceremony. One would have thought that SS desperately/ urgently needs a new operator committed to growing bbl/day to grow revenues for the Government.
Many thanks PekingDuck! Much appreciated!
Fully agree Zengas. It’s (SS) clearly alive and kicking.
Also note from my read of TIL’s helpful posts/links that the Gabon deal, which, as I suspected, being a simpler deal with a highly motivated host government acting within a set deadline, has progressed relatively quicker than our SS deal.
However, unless I missed something, Gabon still seems to be missing:-
1) a named and experienced Operator - potentially whom can provide some equity / skin in the game / introduction to or actual financing; and
2) 3rd party financier.
Is there a role for SAVE as (1) to act as a credible operator for (2) a trade house to provide the finance by way of a PXF?
Really, really interesting…
CYB - thanks - agree your 5 + 1 points. Naira represents a Challenge & opportunities indeed!
TIL - thanks for all your interesting posts over last 14 days or so - pls keep sleuthing and sharing, it’s all much appreciated!
On your recent response to CYB: I agree and suspect we get a ‘kitchen sink’ update prior to the next deadline including an 2023 Operational Update, as well as guidance to your point on Q1 24. I’m guessing they’re waiting to send this pending developments…
I’d expect no news on the ICC Arbitration Award(s) within this kitchen sink update until publication of the Award(s) which on average for these cases, by my research & my personal guesstimate would be Mar-June 2025 - although this case of *direct* expropriation AND the new ICC rules allow for virtual meetings to take place could mean (a) the case is very straightforward so should be very simple and with limited contentions, and (b) is heard (by zoom) & therefore published sooner. Damages also should be straightforward to calculate. Successful enforcement and a special dividend of 1-2x Market Cap to follow (I hope) within 6 months thereafter. Chairman & CEO are aligned with shareholders on this special divi approach, I would think!
Back on the update: I suspect that the SS AD plus these updates are already drafted and ready to go - just awaiting close out of the SS workstreams.
I’m also rather hoping for a Gabon SPA RNS to follow(?) .
TIL your helpful posts on this lead me to believe there are solid reasons for all the potential protagonists (Carlyle, Gabon, Vitol & Savannah) to explore & potentially progress this deal.
Sequentially, Gabon following Op update and SS AD would seem the ‘right ‘ order, to avoid dual Suspension regulatory discussions(?), but with the onshore and offshore key protagonists on the Gabon deal being highly motivated, coupled with perhaps a less complex single deal (vs many for SS), it may be we hear on Gabon first.
Here’s hoping either way on this sunny Friday, with my rather ‘rose coloured’ sunglasses that we hear positive news end Feb/early March!
It would be awesome to have deep sources of $ cash from outside of Nigeria that could swiftly repay the Nigerian $ loan, so we can crack on with other Nigerian investments using Nigerian revenues to fund same. I know the company policy is to keep every country P&L separate but Domestic Nigerian $ loan is an albatross around SAVEs neck even with the structure of the GSAs. Places a lot of pressure on domestic buyers & save’s GSA contracts. Credit insurance is mitigant but pressure can make for uncomfortable outcomes in EM.
And of course the SS (and Gabon?) $ in due course could be used to develop Niger for an optimized / rich farm out.
DYOR & all the best all !
Fascinating, thank you TIL. It’s really intriguing from a SAVE perspective! As perhaps one of the second hydrocarbon deals contemplated by the company and referred to last year, I would guess it could be well worth exploring. Economics need to be right of course and one would imagine the financing by way of a PXF etc would have to involve a 3rd party trader (such as has been previously postulated in articles). Which might mean some greater sharing of the economics. We’ll see.
I am hoping SS financing would by now just be required to be a short term - say 12 month - PXF. Which I would hope would be provided by the vendor, to ensure low cost for SAVE & with the financier having solid knowledge of asset & hence relatively sympathetic on terms. With built in grace periods etc. we’ll see.
Just re-reading the RNSs and the evolution in wording of each RNS on the extensions particularly since June last year on SS - to me the wording slight changes in vocabulary gives the potential hint that we might expect a formal notification either way sooner than the deadline - ie either extension or Admission Doc - end Feb or March. We’ll see - maybe I’m reading too much in!
Thank you TT, very helpful & makes sense to me. Like CYB I struggled to understand the RNS.
PekingDuck any chance you have the JPM commentary again & could share please?
Oilbagger - the link is much appreciated, thank you. He sounded very optimistic about SS at the start of the section on SAVE, in a somewhat unguarded manner perhaps? Slightly ‘walked it back’ later in the interview, but great colour!
Hi TIL
I’m not an expert in the matter but in the spirit of brainstorming on this bb ( ie not advice/dyor), on scanning the below FCA link
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5.pdf
And quickly scanning reading other googled articles, I couldn’t see such a restriction.
In openly signaling a possible second hydrocarbon transaction and pursuing other transactions for quite some time while suspended for SS the company (SAVE) seems to not be acting as if this were the case either. So anecdotally this doesn’t seem to be an actual issue; or perhaps another way to look at is it’s not an issue in practice? I don’t know if this helps.
Personal opinion: It would be difficult to imagine being able to credibly approach other sellers to enter into a transaction if this material restriction in completing a transaction were the case.
Again, I’m not an expert, just my 4 penn’orth!
It’s been an exciting week on this share / bb - really appreciated everyone’s posts. This bb continues to be high quality. I’m optimistic on SAVE, and wish the Management Team Godspeed in getting the deals across the line!
LSE bb is showing a SAVE trade yesterday. Solid size. May be an error?
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Value
02-Jan-24 13:05:38 26.25 1,600,000 Unknown* 420.00k
Really interesting TIL - I think you’re spot on re quiet but important significance of mid stream revenues - thank you for all the articles & sleuthing.
I would love to understand when we might see additional revenue from these flows, and very rough quantum this could mean in terms of monthly income once up & running, to be able to include in a discounted cashflow model for the Nigerian business. Do you reckon we could guestimate end 2024/beginning 2025?
On a separate note - the folks on this bb all contribute to my favourite bb - thank you - and wishing all on this bb a very Happy & Prosperous New Year!
Thanks Rocky.
Saw this tonight on SS
#South_Sudan’s President Kiir dismisses 3 ministers (presidential affairs, trade & industry, public service). The minister of public service J. Bakasoro becomes the new minister of presidential affairs. In addition, Kirr sacked sacked Warrap State Governor
https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1729228672819699808?s=46&t=Lo0qH_1sjMOWHIbbnMFxMA
Thanks CYB. Hopefully it won’t impact SAVE’s negotiations.
Many thanks Rocky; and thanks for comments JDC.
Public info seems to indicate optimism around Nigeria & friends in the know say Naira / $ exchanges becoming a little more orderly if still a waiting game - both of which one imagines is constructive to refi, or in absence thereof allows for repayment month by month (with some months delay in swapping currencies) to see debt reduce.
Share JDC’s concern around Moscow protagonist(s) but hope Petronas stay true to their SPA agreement.
Nothing much to add - watching & waiting.
Thank you Sajy - your update & sharing is v much appreciated!
Agree an update from CEO on strategic deals / progress, would be good, BUT It would be great for the CFO to take us through the interims as would be best practice - other nat resources / commodity names (listed & private) always have the CFO explain the numbers to investors, and, to fold in RR theme from other post, would show team leadership, not just one man show.
It’s going to be a very technical set of interims which a CFO should speak to - eg1 the Nigerian FX piece (I am braced for material negative short term impact, despite the sunny uplands assurances of positive long term); eg2 CC revenues - few months’ upstream and cotco (~40% of $155m treated as receivable?), provisions (?), CC fees; eg3 newly amended pxf terms will show up in numbers(?); eg4 new / renewables fte impact at Head Office on the HO / management costs, etc, etc. At the AGM was poor CFO not present and it was suboptimal not to get a clear and thorough explanation of FX, when everyone on the EM ‘street’ was aware that there were / are big issues with $ in Nigeria, and SAVE had material NGN deposits. To name a few. Not the CEO’s role to explain this stuff.
DYOR Cheers
Thanks so much for sharing Rocky!
LST - I know you’re not being negative, but I am a bit more positive - there will be other avenues / assets / funds to go after in the unlikely event we cannot obtain this- through the supply chain / financial chain. See other posts on Mareva injunctions.