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Thanks Rocky.

The weblink IR has sent no longer exists. Which is very poor. However: on the website, under the Investor section there looks like a way to register.

It would be deeply suboptimal for the CEO to not attend his company’s own AGM in person yet again. But this would appear to be contemplated. Really poor form.

Like CYB, I was sorry to hear RR you won’t attend this year. I will be there and if others are interested I would be keen to:-

A) agree a list of questions on this bb

B) meet prior to the AGM for a coffee with the readers and writers of this bulletin board.

Thoughts?

Link to FT transcript on Niger:-

https://www.ft.com/content/ef78d2fd-6adf-4573-bf4a-ec419c34a6a1

Nothing particularly new but still interesting…

Excellent find, TIL - thanks so much for sharing!

Agree CYB on the accounting around 4. Cameroon.

Of course, there’ll also need to be reference within the acs under the same topic to the corresponding CC acquisition debt servicing from SAVE to XOM that was subsequently refi’d against Cameroon alone.

CYB, rather concerningly, Global Arbitration Review today has an article stating:-

Qatari bank wins billion-dollar award against South Sudan

An ICSID tribunal has ordered South Sudan and its central bank to pay over US$1 billion to repay civil war-era loans made by an affiliate of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund.

I assume this is added to the list of sovereign debt and won’t impact SS SAVE acquisition…but shows the country needs to generate more revenue and so new investors into O&G sector required urgently…

Thanks for this TIL.

It seems to me that this could be an excellent opportunity for SAVE to propose to the Ministry / Nilepet a prepayment, upon completion of the SS acquisition, of (contractual) oil royalty payments for 2024, which would immediately be released upon completion of the acquisition. A prepayment shouldn’t trigger sovereign debt covenants.

I know that this would have to be carefully considered & structured by lawyers to ensure above-board; and prepayment for a discrete period only, not creating a precedent. This is precisely the sort of agile structured solution SAVE brings to the party.

Just a thought, intrigued whether others think may be possible.

markel ceo tom ***nor at the annual 2024 meeting in omaha today, 5 may’24, following the berkshire hathaway 2024 meeting 4 may’24:-

“we couldn’t do what we do without you, our investors, putting in your capital and leaving it with us. we want to treat you as important partners and treat you in the way we would like to be treated if the roles were reversed”

Agree. This goes back to RR’s points about lack of any material Updates from IR by way of RNSs and his frustration (shared with many shareholders) about the quality and usefulness of last year’s AGM, in response to CYB’s points from post “Repost: December 2021 presentation”.

As CYB mentioned in that post / company presentation linked to post, the company shared in that ppt solid information about asset & liability side of biz, and promised quarterly updates. Not confidential matters but BAU. We’ve not received anything approaching this since.

Going back to the presentation - slide 11 - bottom lhs of slide table on pricing of debt (and refinance dates) from memory - agree with TIL - we definitely want repayment of expensive $ debt versus divi but I’d prefer debt repayment vs share buy back.

Thank you TIL - really interesting.

I must have missed the RNS…

Thanks CYB. Very useful to re-read this excellent ppt even 2.1/2 years on, given the dearth of information provided subsequently to investors. As you say, the Gantt chart p 23 worth reviewing, as well as your other points which are spot on.

Liabilities on slide 11 interesting. As are the final 3 slides 38, 29, 30 - of footnotes / assumptions.

Agadem/RR & CYB - Many thanks your thoughts & comments.

RR - particularly interested in your list of topics covered with IR as, without wishing to get too OCD, I read it as a bit of a blend - partly items discussed, partly your hope / wish list for 2024…but it’s a bit tricky to understand which items you covered with IR and which points are your/our shareholder hopes. All of which I agree are key points of course, with exception of the dividend. Think

Latter more important in 25-26 when special divi of CC ICC Award sum should be contemplated.

One of the things IR should now be able to confirm or correct is the previously posted / discussed news publication of the June 2025 ICC hearing. So I’m curious as to whether this was discussed.

IR should also be able to share the CPF completion date and modeled numbers - quantum of base case more gas, % increase in base case of sales, etc. appreciate not actual. But to your point, this is our sole jewel in the crown at present, so some hint on this might be helpful for patient shareholders who have received very little info for a long time on the underlying business.

CYB - I’m assuming “ It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.” relates to the Take or Pay contracts. You’re right that this is again something an Operational Update should cover.

Thanks for sharing that Komakino, that’s really, really interesting.

I had hoped for the Tribunal to sit at least 3-4 months before that, perhaps Feb’25, but my guess is that the number of matters in dispute and/or amalgamated into one arbitration may mean that although the case is a relatively simply case of direct expropriation by the Chadian government, the matter had become more complex in scope - eg including midstream CC matters etc. My guess only.

Under the new ICC rules incorporated there is a time limit on publication of award after hearing. From memory the ICC Arbitration Rules 2021 include a deadline of six months from the last signature to the terms of reference. If memory serves and this is correct this means we’re looking at publication within H2 2025. My guess only.

I’m telling myself today is one of those Harry Enfield “calm down, calm down” moments. These deadlines can take on a life of their own and I can get overly focussed on a dreamt up date, when many factors are not in the company’s control. But the truth is that although obviously a successful SS announcement today would be a fantastic end to the week, shareholders will actually just be very pleased to hear in a few weeks on a successful Gabon SPA(!?) and then later - it may take even a month or two more - on a successful SS government approval, if that’s the way it goes, as I postulated in my lengthy(!) 16 Feb post - i commented that on Gabon the parties are much more motivated from a timeline perspective and we may be pleasantly surprised that Gabon beats our SS Gov approval / success. But who knows, I’m just relying on public info that TIL has really helpfully dug up and shared. Interesting though that the pressure to close in Gabon continues…

On SS, President Kiir will have a terrific story to tell his electorate at the signing ceremony (and later at the run up to election) when he replaces an investor who is not willing to ramp up investment in multiple SS oilfields with SAVE who will sweat the assets and invest in the assets more - so delivering to the SS government greater oil revenues. Revenues which are desperately needed by the people.

In the meantime a really thorough Operational Update would be good but I am guessing we may be waiting til June for this - sadly.

I’m also thinking about the AGM in June. Which I hope follows some success in the above (Gabon and SS).

It’s going to be key that the CFO (in person, not on a dial in) takes us through a really thorough presentation on assets, and liabilities, country by country, across each business line - hydrocarbons and renewables. With a really clear breakdown. There is much that can be shared about the business which is not subject to arbitral confidentiality.

CYB posted the ppt recently on this bulletin board from Dec’21 (from memory). That sort of thorough ppt updated and presented at the AGM would be welcome and frankly expected. But more importantly, a proper Finance ppt is called for.

It will be very important that CEO and CFO are there in person, sharing from each of their perspectives the business. We know we’re an “And not Or” company, we know we’re a company doing hydrocarbons AND renewables, “projects that matter” etc, we all believe this. so no more than 2 minutes on this please!

Thanks TIL. V encouraging!

Thanks CYB. Hopefully this is the final bilateral meeting between Petronas & SS Government before confirming sale with ministerial sign off and a Presidential signing ceremony. One would have thought that SS desperately/ urgently needs a new operator committed to growing bbl/day to grow revenues for the Government.

Many thanks PekingDuck! Much appreciated!

Fully agree Zengas. It’s (SS) clearly alive and kicking.

Also note from my read of TIL’s helpful posts/links that the Gabon deal, which, as I suspected, being a simpler deal with a highly motivated host government acting within a set deadline, has progressed relatively quicker than our SS deal.

However, unless I missed something, Gabon still seems to be missing:-

1) a named and experienced Operator - potentially whom can provide some equity / skin in the game / introduction to or actual financing; and

2) 3rd party financier.

Is there a role for SAVE as (1) to act as a credible operator for (2) a trade house to provide the finance by way of a PXF?

Really, really interesting…

CYB - thanks - agree your 5 + 1 points. Naira represents a Challenge & opportunities indeed!

TIL - thanks for all your interesting posts over last 14 days or so - pls keep sleuthing and sharing, it’s all much appreciated!

On your recent response to CYB: I agree and suspect we get a ‘kitchen sink’ update prior to the next deadline including an 2023 Operational Update, as well as guidance to your point on Q1 24. I’m guessing they’re waiting to send this pending developments…

I’d expect no news on the ICC Arbitration Award(s) within this kitchen sink update until publication of the Award(s) which on average for these cases, by my research & my personal guesstimate would be Mar-June 2025 - although this case of *direct* expropriation AND the new ICC rules allow for virtual meetings to take place could mean (a) the case is very straightforward so should be very simple and with limited contentions, and (b) is heard (by zoom) & therefore published sooner. Damages also should be straightforward to calculate. Successful enforcement and a special dividend of 1-2x Market Cap to follow (I hope) within 6 months thereafter. Chairman & CEO are aligned with shareholders on this special divi approach, I would think!

Back on the update: I suspect that the SS AD plus these updates are already drafted and ready to go - just awaiting close out of the SS workstreams.

I’m also rather hoping for a Gabon SPA RNS to follow(?) .

TIL your helpful posts on this lead me to believe there are solid reasons for all the potential protagonists (Carlyle, Gabon, Vitol & Savannah) to explore & potentially progress this deal.

Sequentially, Gabon following Op update and SS AD would seem the ‘right ‘ order, to avoid dual Suspension regulatory discussions(?), but with the onshore and offshore key protagonists on the Gabon deal being highly motivated, coupled with perhaps a less complex single deal (vs many for SS), it may be we hear on Gabon first.

Here’s hoping either way on this sunny Friday, with my rather ‘rose coloured’ sunglasses that we hear positive news end Feb/early March!

It would be awesome to have deep sources of $ cash from outside of Nigeria that could swiftly repay the Nigerian $ loan, so we can crack on with other Nigerian investments using Nigerian revenues to fund same. I know the company policy is to keep every country P&L separate but Domestic Nigerian $ loan is an albatross around SAVEs neck even with the structure of the GSAs. Places a lot of pressure on domestic buyers & save’s GSA contracts. Credit insurance is mitigant but pressure can make for uncomfortable outcomes in EM.

And of course the SS (and Gabon?) $ in due course could be used to develop Niger for an optimized / rich farm out.

DYOR & all the best all !

Fascinating, thank you TIL. It’s really intriguing from a SAVE perspective! As perhaps one of the second hydrocarbon deals contemplated by the company and referred to last year, I would guess it could be well worth exploring. Economics need to be right of course and one would imagine the financing by way of a PXF etc would have to involve a 3rd party trader (such as has been previously postulated in articles). Which might mean some greater sharing of the economics. We’ll see.

I am hoping SS financing would by now just be required to be a short term - say 12 month - PXF. Which I would hope would be provided by the vendor, to ensure low cost for SAVE & with the financier having solid knowledge of asset & hence relatively sympathetic on terms. With built in grace periods etc. we’ll see.

Just re-reading the RNSs and the evolution in wording of each RNS on the extensions particularly since June last year on SS - to me the wording slight changes in vocabulary gives the potential hint that we might expect a formal notification either way sooner than the deadline - ie either extension or Admission Doc - end Feb or March. We’ll see - maybe I’m reading too much in!

Thank you TT, very helpful & makes sense to me. Like CYB I struggled to understand the RNS.

PekingDuck any chance you have the JPM commentary again & could share please?