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Thanks TIL. Agree quite a lot of activity on social media from the company.

While the AI stuff recently shared is hugely encouraging - My thoughts or guesses are that IR isn’t working on the stuff that we’re really keen to know about as it’s simply too early as SS not buttoned down with Gov til Summer (at best) or Autumn 2023. So they have time to post about SAP awards etc on social media. Doing their job of maintaining good brand awareness.

So I’d suggest the following info drops in June / after Gov agrees SS - earliest - in whole or part - maybe a trickle of info June onwards only to Dec :-

Summer - June earliest (suspect trickle through Sept - Oct- Dec) messages via RNS etc

1) Nigeria - v solid Gas Sales revenues 2022 / expected solid 2023 - conservative but +ve guidance only for 2023. This is key to sp. The market believes the $ from Nigerian biz. (Show me don’t tell me)
2) Niger - release a plan to build pipeline / spur to cnpc pipeline - completion realistically expected Q4 2024. Not much detail on when nodding donkeys might be hard at it - aim being Q3 2024 to coincide with save pipe spur to main cnpc pipe. Update on renewables / roadmap to FID Q1 2025
3) SS Gov update - hope announce approved but may be announcement of cancelled SPA (I hope not)
4) CC - ‘sotto voce’ due to geopolitics & litigation / diplomatic risk. It might be only a footnote - (a) arbitration won, (b) repaid XOM Prepayment Finance (PPF) - asset unencumbered. (Basis: we’ve had economics of these assets (flows plus pipeline fees) for 2.1/4 years. Average Oil price PLUS Doba premium being unprecedentedly high last year March onwards - means the debt repaid massively early. (Refer pages 88-91 of docs shared with market around purchase. $170m PPF)

Of course I hope for more to be shared; and of course for positive developments on all above; but if we got 2-3 out of above as vaguely positive news it should be hugely / massively accretive to SP on re-listing

Usual caveats - DYOR

Thanks TIL. Great points and helpful article.

Terrific post, thanks Zengas.

Will be interesting to see the brokers responses / revised (upward) target prices, or if they’ll wait til Petronas acquisition completion announced before revising. I hope not.

The XOM asset acquisition completion could perhaps signal a somewhat de-risked Petronas completion. Will be interesting to see market response tomorrow…

PF, I’d suggest that reducing the term from 7 years to 2 years is not a concern given (a) the workout arrangement with economic benefit from Jan’21 that has resulted in the considerably lower final consideration to be paid by the Buyer and (b) the prior 2 year’s revenues (stripping out extraordinary items), which again goes to likely revenues over next 2 years.

This PXF loan reflects the confidence in the speed that both the Seller, turned financier, and the Buyer, believe repayment can be conservatively achieved. No sensible lender or borrower would agree to an aggressive / unrealistic repayment schedule and this lender is the most informed about the assets/repayment ability.

The lender also will have knowledge of the borrower’s oil sales contract with the marketer, which is part of the collateral provided for the financing. This could have a a forward fixed sales component through various mechanisms.

from quick read think combination of $ debt and $ from cashflow component mentioned.
Consolidated b/sheet and cashflow analysis in coming days will be of interest…
Anyway, a nice surprise on a Friday evening!

It’s Science, CYB (aka Mr White), respect the chemistry. [With Apologies to Breaking Bad]. Think you’re spot on with your calcs. Doba premium to Brent post Feb’22 anecdotally noted by oil traders in public to be materially higher than prior years. Will be fascinating to see what happens but my read is the sp currently purely values Nigerian gas business on a discounted basis, and is waiting to see on CC, Niger & Renewables - in that order - on a ‘show me $ revenue don’t tell me’ basis. An announcement of a completed acquisition of valuable CC assets for ~$170-250m will challenge this thinking, I’d have thought. But maybe the skeptics will need to see an audited year of earnings from CC…who knows, but buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Tier, I think CYB is saying look at the timeline of the P-G Chad acquisition. Announcement Nov’21. Close just occurred. SAVE CC announcement occurred after P-G announcement. So we could reasonably expect a close after P-G close, all things bring equal.

Fundamentals look solid. GS: https://youtu.be/iUvXhMmHJyA

Sage
https://www.facebook.com/reel/344138604587534?extid=7MtrtK&fs=e

Thanks for posting Komakino - this should encourage a rational discussion about the urgency for all stakeholders of the SAVE CC completion & increasing volumes & revenues all around…and encouraging as pipeline potential owners

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-market-sees-support-physical-tightness-2022-07-18/

Agree RR. £5k a point is pretty chunky (if it’s not £5 a penny) so will watch with interest - you may well have picked a terrific level to re-up, bravo!

Interesting article on physical vs futures markets
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/talk-of-an-oil-market-recession-is-overblown/2022/07/07/77542fc0-fdb2-11ec-b39d-71309168014b_story.html

Zengas thanks your helpful posts today.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/saudi-crude-oil-price-hike-set-collide-with-recession-fears-russell-2022-07-07/

Echo your thoughts S99, v much appreciate quality of this board.

Aggers & PF I am going for positive surprise on Doba vs Brent oil basis since Feb’22. Doba should be a material premium perhaps $10+?

Interesting article from Shell CEO
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-29/shell-chief-paints-bleak-picture-on-global-energy-supply

Totally agree with your logic, your basis / thought process and your conclusions, CYB.
ps By IM, I assume your mean Institutional or Insto investors? (i sometimes struggle with the abbreviations!)

It’s a really important point Cautionyourblast and you set out possible outcomes in your recent, thoughtful post on a topic which is absolutely front of mind.

I’m personally drawing some immediate comfort on the question of dilution wrt the proposed/public Chad-Cameroon acquisition (only) from commentary on Page 4 of the AGM Notice - “…The Directors have no present intention of exercising these authorities…”.

Agree cjgoldsmith - will also be interesting to understand if a back-in after payout (BIAPO) arrangement is contemplated. HNY to all!