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Great article from FT highlighting the current dispute with Benin and Niger. I don't think this will last long considering it's in there mutual interest to get the oil flowing and loading from Benin port
https://www.ft.com/content/13ecd2c4-61a6-49c9-9b37-6429e3c67538
Looks like savannah will be moving to new head quarters in Akwa Ibom hopefully spurring the growth trajectory of the accugas asset and the recent developments occurring in OML 13 Licence area which covers our pipeline network.
https://daybreak.ng/aibom-multi-billion-naira-21-storey-building-still-vacant-four-years-after/
SP reporting today that we are still waiting on key approvals from Juba
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051424-oil-output-dip-pipeline-woes-lead-south-sudan-economy-to-cliff-edge
Moment of flux
Promises to supply large quantities of crude to the UAE come at a moment of flux for South Sudan's oil sector, with Malaysia's Petronas in the process of selling the country's main upstream assets to London-listed Savannah Energy for $1.2 billion.
South Sudan holds Africa's third-largest oil reserves but has seen production fall dramatically from a peak of 350,000 b/d after independence from Sudan in 2011.
The Savannah deal -- initially expected to be completed in September 2023 -- would make the UK company a key stakeholder in Blocks 3/7, 1/2/4 and 5A, with a 40% stake in Dar Petroleum Operating Co., alongside CNPC with 41%, Sinpec with 6% and Nilepet with the remainder. The general manager position rotates between shareholders.
However, the deal has been repeatedly delayed, most recently on April 6, when Savannah announced the transaction would likely close in the late second quarter or early third quarter.
The UK firm, which last year had its assets in Chad nationalized by the country's government, is still awaiting key approvals from Juba.
Zengas - Even if the chad deal fails to close, i imagine we would extend until the accounts are released and than come back to the market, with us being suspended for nearly 1 year and half there isn't a pricing point if the south sudan deal fails to complete so the release of 2023 full year accounts will inform the markets on how to view the business performance regardless of any other deals and attribute a deemed value based on performance and prospect assigned to accugas and Niger
We all know that savannah are under no obligation to wait for formal written government approval to come to market with an admission document, however with the chad situation and increasing trend of African government sticking there foot in divestment deals has made AK vary of coming to market without formal written approval on this front I fully concur with him and best to wait out as there is plenty of deals out there that has had interventions the list is endless, chad, gabon, nigeria etc................all the deals in the countries listed have struggled to close successfully as i write so in this respect we are not alone, the only exception is probably the afentra azule deal which again was smaller in size compared to all the other deals in various countries still awaiting government approval.
I think many on here are annoyed by the fact of silence on the accugas and niger side of the business where there the company has frustrated on that's the main sticking point and not the deal making for me personally.
No need to apologise longshort, every right to be frustrated as i am.
Been that long since a Malcy or VoxMarkets interview we'll forget what AK sounds or looks like !
Come friday, surely they need to be under pressure to soon say how long they expect this to go on for regardless of the looming results date. With the exception of the Nigerian acquisition there's been an absolute silence on operations.
Not one presentation for shareholders either with any material or slides available or growth projections.
Haven't checked it exactly since the name change but we must be approaching 3-4 years suspended out of the last 10 as a listed company.
It will be poor form to issues another shareholders letter from the CEO and Chairmans introduction and continue in the same vein. Communication needs to change.
Out of interest, I had a look back through all the various alerts I have set up for companies I follow over the last 15 months and SAVE is just off the bottom, from which one could draw various conclusions. The AIM rules do state that companies must adhere to normal MAR disclosure rules while suspended, and I have written to LSE to clarify. I'd like to think there have been more news worthy operational/corporate or industry news that would normally warrant a news update. I do wonder if the Company has maintained a seperate line of comms with the iis/funds who must be equally frustrated. Time for the PR folk and Nomad to get their feet back under the desk.
This Chad article cites only a statement from the Chad govt not from the Paris court of arbitration itself. Also it only discusses the fact that Chad's pipeline accounts cannot be frozen. No mention of the more important issues of the nationalisation itself and the related theft of assets. As mentioned below, this could simply be Chad trying to put a spin on a meaningless aspect of this case. Like others, a frustrated long term holder here. Fingers crossed that all those boxes start to get ticked off this year.
Apologies Zen frustration taking hold on my part its been a long few years in here, GLA
Longshort / Zen - not long to wait now as the full year results are due in the next 4 weeks. So all will be revealed.
Personally if they can get stuff right which is within there control I.e cpf completion and Niger work programme than we will be on our way towards the so growth that we all seek here.
Time for savannah to be more aggressive with what’s within there control and not waste too much time on blue sky chasing
Nope, no disrespect longshort, but I never said that ie as rubbish or words to that effect’ . It was re the 15p comments and I said I wouldn’t be making any reactionary decision on re admission to trading. (21st March 24). I get a sum of the parts valuation higher than 26p and gave my earlier reasons for this. Sentiment and investor reaction is another thing but why I won’t be reacting to any of it.
Read an article the other day that the Americans will play ball with Chad as it is there only hand left in the Sahel ffs sake will be on the wrong side of politics again , AK You maybe out of your depth here.
Zen i have always resected you as poster but you made a comment that peolple speculating this wouldn't open at below 20p was rubbish or words to that effect but unless there are some huge Rabitts out of the hat a $50m Nigerian deal isn't going to cut it against a failed Chad deal, excessive FX loss, increased debt, F--k all happening in Niger (well at least we think that ) it is obscene the lack of communication from the BOD, nearly 18 months disgracefull
We need to know the actual facts of the decision as the devil is always in the detail. The Chad Ministry may also have put their own spin on the decision.
IMHO this is all legal sparring whilst awaiting the main event.
That main event is the calculation of the compensation that is due to either Save or ExxonMobil following the Nationalisation of the oil fields.
What does this mean for us? Expected or rather bad for us?
Google translate:
*.*.*.*.*
jjjJ' 4—Uj
uulijja-Jl Sjljj
N'Djamena, May 13, 2024. Another lost battle for Savannah: The CC1 arbitration court in Paris refuses to freeze
and sequester COTCO's funds, ruling in favor of Chad and COTCO.
*.*.*.*.*
In the arbitration procedure relating to the consequences of nationalization on Savannah's loss of shareholder status
in COTCO, the ICC Arbitral Court of Paris has just rejected all requests for interim measures made by Savannah
aimed at obtaining the freezing and sequestration of funds from COTCO. As a reminder, the emergency arbitrator
appointed by the ICC before the constitution of the Arbitral Tribunal had also rejected the request to freeze COTCO's
funds.
This order constitutes a new failure by Savannah in its desire to further disrupt the functioning of COTCO and the
Chadian oil industry, in particular through the multiplication of abusive procedures in disregard of the law and in denial
of the consequences of the Chadian nationalization law on the management of the Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline.
****.*
N’Djamena, May 13, 2024
**.*.*.*
*****
In this regard, the Arbitral Tribunal emphasized that the statutes of COTCO, which reflect the close integration of the
Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline with the exploitation of the Doha oil fields, clearly limit the access of COTCO 's
shareholders to States of Chad and Cameroon and the members of the Doha consortium, of which Savannah is not
part. The Arbitral Tribunal also concluded that there was no proof of Savannah's allegations concerning the alleged
dissipation of COTCO funds by Chadian shareholders.
As a reminder, on March 4, 2024, in another procedure, the Arbitral Tribunal had already rejected the request made by
Savannah to sequester, until the resolution of the merits of the dispute, the oil revenues of Tchad Petroleum Company
SA ( TPC), depository company for nationalized assets.
In its order of May 8, 2024, the Arbitral Tribunal rejected Savannah's arguments seeking to present the freezing and
sequestration of COTCO 's funds as necessary to ensure the preservation of its alleged shareholder rights in COTCO,
because it believed that Savannah had not demonstrated any significant chance of success.
With this new failure, which marks the legal weaknesses of its position, Savannah sees itself further prevented in its
attempts to benefit from the illicit acts committed in complicity with ExxonMobil to take control of the revenues from the
Doha oil fields and the Chad oil pipeline. -Cameroon.
003/PT/PM/MH/2024
Haven't translated it because its via facebook but released today saying Save losing another battle as the 'Paris CCI arbitration court refuses to freeze and seize Cotco funds giving Chad and COTCo right'. Seems to go back to 8th May when this was heard.
I wonder will or can Save comment on the status of this dispute and update shareholders without us having to hear about it from the other side in the dispute.
Reason I was excited by the the OML 13 production news is because last weekend the NNPC Gas and power minister visited critical gas infrastructure sites in Eket and I believe that's where our Uquo CPF facility is in Eket Akwa Ibom, the pictures very much look like some of our accugas infrastructure as I don't believe there is any other Gas facility in Eket, I wonder whether the visit was to do our CPFfacility expansion completion which is likely due shortly
Over the past weekend, Mr. Olalekan Ogunleye, the Executive Vice President, Gas, Power & New Energy, NNPC Ltd., led the State House Media Team on a tour of critical gas infrastructure sites in Eket, Akwa Ibom State.
I think the OML 13 production news alongside the Gas minister visit to see the gas infrastructure in Eket tells me that gas production is likely to start to ramp up in OML 13 licence area and we are perfectly placed with the CPF facility expansion and increase development in the licence
https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1787860218732257667
A few weeks away from proving right those analysts who spoke last January of the fact that "this first operation in the oil sector since the August coup d'état is doomed to failure on a financial and political level and that it harms the investment climate of OPEC members”, those responsible for this takeover now have their backs against the wall. How will they go about obtaining this funding? What will be the conditions if they get funding? So many questions that arise at a time when “the GOC has clearly expressed its commitment to revitalizing Gabon's oil production through renewed exploration and a field optimization strategy” as stated Elsewhere recently indicated Sandra Jeque, event director at Energy Capital & Power.
https://gabonmediatime.com/rachat-dassala-goc-et-letat-gabonais-plus-que-jamais-sous-pression/
Pre-emption is never easy when the funding is difficult to find for failed economical states
Less than three weeks before the end of the pre-emption period, Gabon Oil Company (GOC) and the State are still looking for solutions to complete the acquisition of the Assala tanker. In search of the 1.2 billion dollars necessary for the conclusion of this operation, the Gabonese State comes up against its own turpitudes, in particular less than optimal governance and management of resources, which favor operating expenses to the detriment of public expenditure. investment. As a result, oil trading and brokerage companies could be called to the rescue, but at what cost? And under what conditions?
Announced just a few months after General Oligui Nguema came to power, the purchase of Assala's assets is struggling to be finalized by the Gabonese state, which is trying to buy time and attract new investors. In search of a strategy to shield this deal by the end of May and the end of the pre-emption period, Gabon Oil Company (GOC), mandated by the State in this operation, should for example take advantage of the Invest in forum African Energy 2024 (IAE 2024) which will be held in Paris on May 14 and 15, to continue its quest for financing. During this event focused on collaboration between European and African markets, Marcellin Simba Ngabi, ADG of GOC, will play his part. But how did we get there?
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By putting forward its “right of pre-emption”, an initiative which according to several analysts, notably those from Standard & Poor's Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, could not hold water due to cash flow tensions inherited from the fallen regime, the Gabonese state which has since handed over to his secular arm in the oil sector, surely did not imagine such difficulties. Floundering between political will and economic reality, this operation seems to be in trouble and could further undermine our economic prospects, not for its irrelevance, but rather for the conditions that should be offered by investors in a context slowdown in global economic growth.
Only three weeks left to raise the equivalent of 7% of GDP
The Gabonese state which is trying to “call on trading companies to help it finance a 1.3 billion dollar agreement for the Carlyle fund's Assala oil company” confirming its cash flow difficulties and investors' uncertainties as to in our situation, is currently trying to complete this operation which is ultimately not as simple as that. With less than a month to find 1.2 or even 1.3 billion US dollars, the equivalent of 7% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the pressure increases a little more every day on the shoulders of resource people, in charge of this file which could have been discussed and handled differently in view of the emergencies of the day, particularly in terms of infrastructure.
Nigeria OML 13 is really coming to life now with first oil, this licence operated by Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production Company Limited (SEEPCO) is finally starting to produce oil and ramp up to 40,000 bopd by end of month.
Below is the extract from one of the articles highlighting the production and reserves of OML 13, and luck has it that we are the only pipeline in south east Nigeria to benefit from this where there is oil production there is also gas and Nigeria is keen to reduce flaring so we would be able to use all of the non associated gas and associated gas production to feed through our pipeline.
As a result of this could see plenty of Amocon stye feedstock gas being fed through our pipeline and distributed as seepco ramps up production in OML 13 now.
"When SEEPCO inked the FTSA with the then NPDC in June 2019, close to five years ago, a statement by
the NNPC said that the Indian operator, the only non-indigenous independent oil producer operating an
asset in Nigeria, would pump $3.15Billion to drain the recoverable portion of the 926Million stock tank
barrels (MMSTB) and 5.24Trillion cubic feet (Tcf) respectively of oil and gas reserves in place, over a period
of 15 years.
First oil of about 7,900BOPD was expected from the project by 1st April, 2020, while production is expected
to peak at 94,000BOPD and 542Million standard cubic feet a day (542MMscf/d) within four years, the
NNPC statement added.
https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1789738184076607524
https://africaoilgasreport.com/2024/05/in-the-news/long-awaited-nigerias-oml-13-reaches-first-oil-looks-to-ramp-up-to-40kbd/
https://businessday.ng/energy/oilandgas/article/nnpc-secures-3-15bn-financing-for-oml-13-to-spike-crude-reserve/
I have always mentioned that accugas has the potential as a standalone asset to put us on a billion dollar business journey and I believe this positive news and the start of development of OML 13 will unlock our pipeline infrastructure further.
Interesting biog...
"Savannah Energy
Sponsor
Savannah Energy PLC is a British independent energy company focused around the delivery of Projects that Matter in Africa. We want to meaningfully contribute to the economic development of the countries in which we operate through the development of businesses and projects that make a material difference to those countries. We are pursuing growth opportunities in both hydrocarbon and renewable energy.
Savannah aims to deliver utility scale renewable energy projects across Africa and generate clean, competitively priced electricity for millions of households. We are involved across the entire project life cycle, taking projects from greenfield development through to long term ownership and operation. We currently have up to 696 MW of hydroelectric, solar, and wind projects in Niger, Cameroon, and across the Sahel, and are targeting to have up to 1 GW of projects in motion by the end of 2024 across Africa.
Savannah’s existing presence in sub-Saharan Africa through our hydrocarbon operations means we are able to leverage local teams to accelerate our renewable energy business. We are focused on ensuring the highest environmental, social and governance standards to ensure a positive legacy from our projects."
Thanks, trust
Good to see Savannah sponsoring again.
I'd expect the AGM the same week. If Andrew Knott is in BCN for some of 25-28 June (28 June being a Friday), then the AGM can easily be arranged around this to get the accounts approved by month-end. He has zero excuse not to rock up at Bank Street for the AGM (except for a deal execution, of course).
Agree CYB on the accounting around 4. Cameroon.
Of course, there’ll also need to be reference within the acs under the same topic to the corresponding CC acquisition debt servicing from SAVE to XOM that was subsequently refi’d against Cameroon alone.
CYB, rather concerningly, Global Arbitration Review today has an article stating:-
Qatari bank wins billion-dollar award against South Sudan
An ICSID tribunal has ordered South Sudan and its central bank to pay over US$1 billion to repay civil war-era loans made by an affiliate of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund.
I assume this is added to the list of sovereign debt and won’t impact SS SAVE acquisition…but shows the country needs to generate more revenue and so new investors into O&G sector required urgently…