Member Info for ZENGAS

Thanks very much Scotpak for the detailed notes.

I'd asked from the start why they were giving until the 4th September for the new strategic Nigerian investor shares along with AK (ie 139m shares) to bring in around $12.5m. I'd repeatedly asked them why they couldn't envisage bringing in that money from receivables outstanding in that 6 month timeframe and kill off almost 11% dilution other than the answer being, 'in the best interests of shareholders'.

It is still a mystery as to why this would be done and for a strategic investor to impose those terms that AK takes up that amount in the placing. So you really have to ask what is this strategic Nigerian investor bringing to the table that any other investor could not, which results in almost 11% dilution by 4th September ?

The plot thickens that they now say they expect to get a roughly $100m receivables payment that they'd RNS and a plan is being worked on for the outstanding balance . If that started to arrive before September you'd think they wouldn't have needed to commit to 11% of the company being given away for around $12.5m - so it never added up for me (for now) and again what's a new strategic investor adding ?.

It makes it all look like a bad and unnecessary placing for the remaining $12.5m within the next 4 months but your note - 'strategic investor involved in re-listing will add alot of value in various ways aside from just being investors' and perhaps therein lies the clue as to the possible reasons for this ???. Could it be the whole suspension rules have led to a different strategy for deals ?

It's good to see the belief that they are very undervalued, a $100m receivables payment that they'd RNS and confidence in the Arbitration compensation.

Thanks again for the notes, much appreciated.

Whether one agrees or not on how well the CEO has been rewarded, he's put much of it back into the company shares to hold 9.71% = 169.85m shares.

The pay and awards from IPO appear to be about $19m (US) over the last 10 years taking into account similar for 2024.

Post ipo the holding was about 26m shares.

Since then he's spent £12.4m (Sterling) buying stock with £8.35m going in now at these lows.

22/12/17 2.148m @ 35p= £751.8k.

24/1/19 1 .367m @ 28p = £382.7k.

24/8/20 9.239m @ 7p = £646.7k.

30/12/21 11.613m @ 19.35p = £2.2471m.

4/3/25 91.4445m @ 7p = £6.401m.

4/3/25 25.598m @ 7p = £1.791m (by 4/9/25).

4/4/25 2.05m @ 7.889p 4/4/25 = £161.72k.

Total £12.4m.

Previous Chairman SJ since 2014 who is now a NED held 732k and bought 714k at 7p.

New Chairman JPN since April 2023 bought 6.05m at 26.25p then. And now 909k at 9.80p holding a total of 7.04m at an average of 24.115p.

Rumpel,

If we win, hopefully we get all our costs in addition to whatever payout. I wouldn't have thought we would be paying that much at all unless it was taken on as a no win/no fee type case and i haven't seen any mention of that. Hopefully this is what the costs are for, bar perhaps a goodwill bonus payment on a win ?

"SCI and SMIL are claiming in excess of US$775 million (plus interest which is currently estimated at in excess of US$140million and costs) for the nationalisation of their rights and assets in Chad."

"SMIL has a claim valued at approximately US$380 million (plus interest which is currently estimated at in excess of US$40 million and costs)"

$1,155m claim + $180m interest = $1,335m + Costs.

By the end Q1 2026 there's likely another years interest accumulated, so probably another $50m by then. Looking at possibly close to $1.4 billion plus costs as an overall claim.

If we get $300m (about 20%) and $200m recievables in, i'd be a very happy holder and i'd see this giving us the valuation of around 42p that i mentioned yesterday including only allowing $1150m value for our current assets less the net debt.

Perhaps we might then be in a position to buy out AAIMs 20% in Uquo/Accugas of which $54m was paid for by AAIM at the time. I'm not sure what the forumla was but the option at the time was they needed a return of about 2.5 times their investment ?? Although we have net debt of $666m about $100m belongs to AAIM in the joint Accugas/Uquo 'Hold Cos'. Likewise about 20% of the receivables too i believe. It's been messy to date but i'm looking past this at what potentially is a lot of unlocked value and no doubt this is what has attracted the new investor Blacksea, the potential new investor by Sept 4 (anything coming to the table there ?) and the InstItutions mainly staying put supposedly. Hopefully our current state is part of the case put forward in determining a maximum arbitration award as possible.

Thanks Jam, I wasn't using either as a comparrison yesterday.

I know the history of Sea/Lbe too well when i bought in initially at 100p in a safe haven of Norway with mixed success but progress too slow, and back in a second time at much less. Took a further interest 3rd time round in the 13-14 region and went to mid 20s then for a month at 6-7p where i took as much as could despite some saying it would go under on the upcoming new direction so ultimately down 93% at one point and recently 42p.

Save still have a lot of good assets particularly Niger if they proved up a fraction of the what's there given the demonstatred early success that shows it has major potential for more. 'IF' only they could get things sorted out and no doubt i'm waiting to see what the new investors are in for and why? Can't see a change at the helm anytime soon imo.

I see Chad as completely knocking the company off track and a big part of the reason we are in the position we are in, hence the major compensation claim now at over $1.3b with running interest - for the damage it's caused us. I personally don't blame AK for that. That incident can't be understated. So i'm looking for an award that the legals teams and arbitrators hopefully agree in putting some of that damage good.

There's plenty of companies in the doldrums right now down 50%+ without being anywhere near so called despotic regimes unfortunately.

As for changing the guard, have we got anyone soon that has key knowledge of where we are in negotiations with a lot of things ? I'm not so convinced it would be a good thing right now and that's not to defend anything. I'm sure the entire board are feeling the heat from us all.

GKP listed at 48p in 2004. Mixed results in Algeria and 5 years after an aborted bid on them by RAK, the shares then down as low as 3p after me buying significantly at 19p and down over 75% for me in a short space of time. Calls for heads to roll and then flogged off the Algerian assets after spending a fortune on them to concentrate on a significant block between 2 discovered blocks in Iraqi Kurdistan in the midst of mayhem in both jurisdictions. From my high point buy at 19p and down 75%, i was out a few years later at 320p in 2012 before a high of £4+ was made and since, the rest is history. For me it was always following the potential in the assets. Same with Levines Russian oil company that would regularly get shafted down 50% in price by the Russian regulator along the way or Sibir years ago languishing to get the Salym field up and running.

My point is you don't have to be in a despot country to be down or out on your investment such as Norway or UK. Like Levine and Kozell i have admiration for people that chase big opportunities that could reward us very well and the share price can have a reversal of fortune. Sort some recievables and something in Chad alone and this is a very different company imo.

I've looked at it indepth over the last 10 days from every angle and putting aside my anger over the unexplained raise at such a level, looking to being logical about it -

From the presentation including $60m drawn for Sipec total debt is $726m.

Cash rasised $30m and i believe $30m approx existing cash so net debt around $666m.

Last CPR exccluding Sipec valued our assets all net to SAVE at $1225m.

===============================================

Expected to come in now with Sipec, Accugas pipelines and Compression facility less a years production at $1526m NET.

Over $500m of receiveables still due = 22p/share or 4.4p per $100m owed.

$1100m best case arbitration award = 48p or 4.35p per $100m.

Using a lower case $1150m valuation less net debt = 21p/share.

1) I see reasonable chance of $200m from the recievables coming in = 8.8p.

2) As Chad have acknowledeged some compensation is due, i'd hope to see $300m minimum as this is split over the Doba oil fields and also the seperate purchase of the pipeline = 13p.

3) Valuing the assets at a much lower $1150m less net debt = 21p.

I get just over 42.5p valuation using the full 1750m shares in issue (£1/$1.30) with the new investor onboard by 4th Sept not counting some $12.5m cash from that.

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Sipec has to be helping with an extra $15m/yr minimum FCF using $65/b oil (presentation) since full takeover and extra production before moving to $47m/yr when full ramp up in production is achieved.

Fully agree we've been stung for whatever reason but there's still core value here in points 1, 2, 3 above if realised to that extent.

Beyond the end of the year and if Uquo is drilled even late Q3 with a new 10-13,000 boepd production well, perhaps some new customers could be taking 2-3,000 boepd going into early 2026.

Whether there's a deal on the $200m facility to pull in a hydrocarbon facility remains to be seen, but to me there's still a very strong core value even after these shannanigans.

Remains to be seen where we go on Niger oil production and what had huge exploration potential - so nothing here for this of now.

To see the directors take as much as they could (£8.6m) at 7p, the new investors - bar the Chairman who's sitting on 6m shares at 26p barely 2 years ago at a cost of over £1.5m - maybe room for recovery once this seller is gone ?.

Final lot 415k total.

Painful, but i hope it's relatively short - medium term.

AK has sunk £8.19m at this level. What possessed Sarah Clark a relatively new NED to shell out £125k ? (Not well paid here so far by any stretch to pitch in) , the CFO £175k and M Innotti £105k along with a few others.

Took another 210k there now and 247.5k for the day.

Time will tell. Hope it's at the low that i bought Seascape at back at 7 and 9p last year.

Pt 2.

How does the board reconcile this ? Nick Beattie CFO ? It just doesn't add up and to me points to some other strategic purpose for why else could/would you sanction this against the obvious wrath of LTHs and many newer ones in the last 2-3 years never mind the existing institutions (maybe made insiders or how else did the board know there would be some sales) without some greater growth purpose.

On the possible positive side -

All i can speculate on is that with the CEO saying yesterday there should be a deal within the next 6 months, the RNS reserving the right to still go for S.Sudan, the $200m of financing for a hyrdrocarbon deal in place with long date repayment only starting quarterly and 3 years from now, a broker speculating also that it could be for S.Sudan and the timeline of this new investor not having to pay up ($10m) by early Sept at the latest (6 months). Speculation on my part, but is that why there was conditions imposed by these new investors as why else would they want to come in at a later date. Otherwise it doesn't make any sense for SAVE giving away so much at such a low price and could have surely lifted this cash from ongoing revenue in the next 6 months alone. I may be totally wrong but does this stack up as to the multiple buyers statement some months back. Allowing these investors in with these conditions is it also a source of further possible financing on similar terms for other deals ? (Why otherwise called strategic investors ?)

Would have thought that $200m would buy at least 10k bopd. On top of a further almost 3k coming from Sipec and if ? IF ? they ratchet up 10k bopd from Niger (will this be a goal of these new strategic investors to see progress). These new Strategic investors however unpalatable to us in the immediate term have spotted/dictated a good deal with a 50k+ boepd in the making considering the Accugas value and gas upside? A chunk of unpaid receivables that closely would cover the net debt and a very sizeable possible payout on Chad.

The institutional investors were on the presentation slide yesterday. I thought he said there was only about one exiting (can't be sure) so the TR1s will be interesting after this share increase.

End of Dec 2024 they spoke of record cash collections.

$538m still due and they had $32.6m cash.

So by 3rd March, had record cash collections not continued or expected to continue ? when that evenings RNS said they were raising £30.6m (about $36m net after expenses imo).

$21m was being used to pay down debt with the rest for general corporate purposes.

No indication of price but they put out an asset valuation of an expected $1.5b not counting $500m of owed recievables and a claim of $1.3b = some $3.3 billion less around $700m net debt post Sipec.

As a result of this, AKs previous Chad loan attached to 101m warrants was reduced from 23.5p to 19.2p or a saving of £4.5m when you come to clear the excercise price - was written in at the time but nice work if you can get it.

The £30.6m placing was for 437m new shares. 298m to be issued imminently and the other 138.977m no later than 4th Sept or 6 months away.

The new investor has committed to subscribe for 113.378m shares by no later than 4th Sept. So thats's almost 9% alone of the pre placing company sold for a song and yet $10m of that placing money may not come in for 6 months yet. (Doesn't add up so imo relates to an upcoming deal and not Sipec).

In addition a further 25.6m shares are in the same boat - may not be paid for until 4th Sept - another $2.25m in total. This represents another 2% of the company before the placing.

In essence they've pre sold 11% of the company for $12.25m that may not come in for 6 months yet, despite ongoing revenue/cash collections and the impact imminently of what the added Sipec revenue will give long before then (Doesn't reasonably add up).

At most we've got $24m immediately with baked in dilution from 1300m shares to 1737m - diluted 33% by September and the roughly remaining $12.25m.

This was described as a condition of two of the investors participating in the subscription.

Why has one of these subscribers "the new investor" been allowed 6 months (Sept) to come up with the cash and own 113.378m shares and claim 6.5% of the now enlarged company for their self for $10m. For what compelling reason was this allowed ? As a condition AK had to buy 25.598m subscription shares - a condition imposed by two of the investors participating in the subscription.

Despite the valuation of the company assets of around $1b allowing for net debt - 6.5% of it was forward sold to September for $10m and as a whole respresented a value of $153m far removed from what its worth in the RNS valaution.

He's forever talked about compelling value deals for shareholders but it's the complete opposite in terms of what he has allowed here. He hasn't been diluted. He hasn't lost. Technically with the warrants he has 14.5% of the company and this new investor who has 6 months to pay has another 6.5% = 21%. And what about the 2nd key investor - will this bring them up to 25 %+ perhaps ?

The average down statement is totally crass. Does he understand peoples anger ?

Plenty of charts on how they have increased cash flow, production, sales and irrelevant people training scores etc - all pointing skywards by xxx percent and completely failing to include one on the south facing descent over the last 10 years from 56p and now 33.33% of the company gone for 7p.

The state of the share price was asked as was will he resign and i suspect the long pauses were reading them and being lost for words and embarrassment to answer at all.

Niger as many have commented on is depressing after so long and none the wiser when a billion bl low hanging fruit block has never been adequately progressed.

Sipec imminent.

Alluded to the expectation of another deal coming through within 6 months. Remains to be seen what $200m gets with no repayments until quarterly from Feb 2028.

Shares in issue will be 1749m - AK will own 9.6%.

His Chad loan gives him 101m warrants reduced after today from an exercise price of 23.5p to 19.2p. So in essence he will own 14.5% of the fully diluted company (1850m).

He says all the intstitutions bar one are still onboard - we'll see post TR1s.

I'm not averaging down and if that's how he expects investors to act while he can't grow the share price is ridiculously naive and shouldn't be in office while he can gobble them up on the cheap while being very well paid by the company. Remuneration and any ethics board need a good kick up the rear.

Remains to be seen and the only positives in light of 2 new strategic investors and insitutions mainly remaining as stated above -

$500m+ due in recievables (but when?).

$1300m+ Chad claim (if awarded, how much ?).

$1000m - $1500m asset value (sticking with lower $1200m).

Against approx $700m net debt post Sipec drawdown.

Sitting on a potential 1 billion bl Niger asset (again when and if ever, and if not what's the point after so long?).

Sipec/Accugas should contribute another $100m revenue.

Uquo reserves increase possible if low risk explo well drilled and successful this year.

Will sit on until the Chad news is out and if no major movement on the other assets by then, that will be it for me.

that’s a total disgrace, that amount of shares for 7p and already done. a total **** take !

So end Dec 2024

Gross debt = $666.5m.

Cash $32.6m.

Net Debt = $634m.

The Sipec facility if fully drawn down is $60m so would put net debt up to $694m.

There was $538.9m trade recievables (primarily gas) due to SAVE at end of Dec. I thought the Nigerian Government were close to addressing and settling all outstanding gas debts including historic. So when is that likely to be fully sorted out by the government otherwise we'd hardly need this capital raise ?

Underlying net debt would be something like $95m or $155m post Sipec. In addition $21m of debt is being cancelled by the fund raise if completed.

(At the same time Sipec is adding another significant chunk of revenue and end of year post Uquo drilling/CPF increase into 2026 should add more gas).

They're planning to raise up to about $36m net after expenses. Seems to be based on what secondary dealing sales are per average price(some intstitutional sales that directors/Blacksea and some others will take - as i think i understand it). Small amount in context of what our Trade Recievables are so i hope they have this weighed re dilution costs/size.

If the above figure of about $155m post a $60m Sipec drawdown underlying net debt is near the mark if that full trade recievables figure was settled at some point how does it then look with a current claim against Chad of $1300m if we get a fraction of that.

In addition an overall asset valuation in a new updated CPR of an expected $1.5 billion net.

$200m available for hydrocarbon assets with first payment due quarterly from February 2028 and as long as Blacksea get the off-take.. Enough for 10k+ bopd ? Could that be for S.Sudan on a new cash deal as part of multiple participating parties if agreed ?

Be interesting to see what institutions exit/reduce ? Who if any new institutions come in plus ultimate director uptake and what Blacksea and the un-named others acquire ?.

From Saves suspension date on 12th Dec 2022, i've kept track of how some other oil Cos have been doing in the exact same time frame of 2 years and 2 months. This is from an investment hold pov and not trading. These companies were also hoping to deliver the anticipated big returns and growth in their share price re-rating from their projects as at the time of Saves suspsension. Like SAVE It hasn't happened as yet for many of them either in sustaining a growth in share price other than having access to your capital.

On that basis i'm not concerned at having my investment in SAVE locked up since that time and achieving better performance elsewhere.

Let's hope that whatever the initial market reaction on readmission is, SAVE can deliver on a re-rating with those catalysts in store and that directors buy once again and perhaps new institutions add if there is any slack depending on what the nature of readmission news is.

Afentra - 25p - 43.5p

Aminex 1p -1.05p.

Angus Energy 1.5p - 0.31p.

Ascent Resources 1p - 1.65p.

Arrow Exploration 16.25p - 19.5p

Caspian Sunrise 4p - 3.25p.

Diversified Energy 2100p - 1122p.

Canadian Overseas COPL 15p - Zero.

Deltic 52p - 3.6p.

Eco Atlantic 21p - 9.75p.

Vaalco 390p - 325p.

GulfKeystone GKP 200p - 189p.

Harbour Energy 300p - 231p.

Ithaca 180p - 141p.

Jadestone 76p - 31.5p.

Jersey JOG. 210p - 60.5p.

Kistos 410p - 126p.

Kosmos 507p - 250p.

Pantheon Res 80p - 65.4p.

Predator PRD 9.5p - 4.3p.

Serica 280p - 128.5p.

Seascape (Longboat) 21p - 36.75p.

Seplat 100p - 187p.

Tullow 36.25p - 16.5p.

Touchstone 65p - 24p.

Upland 0.8p - 1.475p.

Wildcat 1.3p - 0.115p.

Regardless of suspension/S.Sudan as if seemingly at a standstill operationally, other news/catalysts to come through.

Net debt end December $634m with $145.1m due in = $488.9m underlying net debt.

If we draw the entire $60m Sipec facility - puts net debt to around $548.9m.

As outlined below - on Sipec/Uquo production plans, surely an increase on revenue by a further $100m/yr can be made.

'Proschefund' post on friday suggests imminent closing must be soon as the Std.Bank of S.Africa registered a charge on Savanngh Energy SC in respect of Sipec last week. Save hoped to close this in Q1.

Surely adds an increased valuation in assets etc to SAVE and with a different deal possibly in reduced size re the S.Sudan Petronas assets can it still warrant a prolonged continued suspension ?

On 30/9/24 Sipec had 1400 bopd estimated for 2024. The update stated that SAVE intended to increase production by 135% to 4700 bopd within 12 months (From 2k - 4.7k bopd gross). Implies 3.4k bopd of new production to Save ie an immediate increase of 1400 bopd and a further 2,000 bopd over the next 12 months from the wells that are already drilled ?

Seperately -

The intended drilling of an Uquo production well to provide 60-80 mmcf/d (10-13k boepd) happens sometime in H2 and my guess is Q3 given they said there would unlikely be a 'material' change to 2025 sales volumes. It sets the company up to provide an increase beyond that.

Production ran at 23,100 boepd of which 88% was gas or 20,300 boepd.

The CPF facility can handle 33,000 boepd (at 200 mcf/d).

5K of new gas production at $3/mcf is $33m/yr.

Bar all else on what we have, those are two opportunties to grow revenue by a fairly modest $100m/yr at $60/b oil and $3/mcf.

H2 = a hoped for positive outcome on the $1.2b Chad claim - is a portion of that enough to cancel or significantly reduce the present net debt while at the same time increasing revenue from what we do have - and/or the assets paying down the debt on their own merits.

Clarity needed on Niger Agadem oil ? 5k or 10k bopd production posssible ? What sales value for the entire asset disposal ($100m ?) or farm in to realise something? If Parc Eolien is progressing - why not equally Agadem under the same government ?

Just depends on the actual timing of when the cash comes in. You can see evidence of this when only $8.7m was collected since 31/10/24 to end Dec. Happened previously when there was about $110m due in by 30th June 2024 and had fallen to $80.5m by end of October.

$73.3m has only been invoiced in the following 2 months to end December. Some of that could be received by now or not as it only covers to end Dec 2024.

Underlying net debt figure is steady as i see it. There must be some expenditure on whatever the new renewables project is that is ready to go subject to the PPA being signed in addition to upfront fees for the Chad aribitration.

End October 2024 v End Dec 2024 update.

Production average 22,700 boepd for 10 months. 23,100 boepd 12 months.

Total Income $320.3m 10 months. $393.6m 12 months. (Means $73.3m invoiced last 2 months).

Cash Balance $53.4m end October to $32.6m end of December.

Cash Collection end of October $239.8m with an additiional $8.7m collected by end of December to $248.5m.

Net debt end of October 2024 $568.7m with $80.5m due in = $488.2m.

Net debt end of December 2024 $634m with $145.1m due in = $488.9m = an increase of underlying net debt of $0.7m since the previous update and net debt of $473.7m end of Dec 2023.

Great result. Can be chased down wherever their assets are for payment.

Is this not much better in terms of a much greater amount over the original claim with interest etc. Anyway well done and at the least bag another award or bring perhaps this might bring the other claims to the negotiating table for settlement a lot earlier ?

Preliminary discussions. Possible offer by Kosmos for Tullow on the heels of the TLW CEO stepping down.

(Is it only me or does anyone else feel the new format isn’t much of an improvement at all ?)

600 wells - 400 shut-in. 200 producing (71,000 bpd of liquids net).

Conservatively bring back online 25% of the shut-ins gives another 100 producers regardless of infill and discoveries undeveloped across the blocks.

Still as much oil in the ground as has been produced.

Gas upside is 14 TCF gross ie potentially 4 fold (5.6 tcf net) - compared to 3.2 TCF gross (1.28 Tcf net) in the CPR.

Closing remark by RB - 'Sleeping Giant in our view'.