Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Kjetil Hove Equinor ASA - EVP of Exploration & Production Norway
In addition to the large sanctioned project portfolio, we have an even larger number of non-sanctioned projects. We have more than 30 projects that we are maturing towards investment decisions in the coming years. The projects are in an early maturation phase, but we expect an average breakeven of the portfolio of around $35 per barrel and a payback time of around 1.5 years. For many of the new subsea tieback fields, we are looking into new ways of working to reduce the maturation and execution time with 50% and the cost level of at least 30%.
This will reduce the breakeven from these fields with 30% compared to a more standard subsea development. And this will be done through new technologies such as the Cap-X subsea wells and by taking out portfolio synergies. These projects will give us around 350,000 barrels in production after 2030
In addition to the large sanctioned and non-sanctioned project portfolio, we are working hard to increase the recovery factor from our fields. Historically, we have been, since sanctioning, been able to increase the average recovery factor from around 30% to around 50% from our oil fields. And there is still a large remaining potential in our fields, and we plan to deliver 50 to 70 increased recovery wells annually in this decade.
Many of these wells are using new technologies such as retrofit multilateral wells, multi-stage fracking and advanced completion solutions, reducing the cost and increasing the production. And these are highly profitable barrels with a breakeven of around $20 per barrel and a payback time less than a year.
We're also planning for around 300 interventions annually to increase production from our existing wells. And in addition, for many of our late life assets, we are planning to sanction low-pressure projects to reduce the reservoir pressure and thereby increasing the recovery from our fields. This increased recovery effort will give us an annual production of around 150,000 towards 2035
Our exploration strategy is that around 80% of the exploration wells will be drilled close to the infrastructure in known exploration plays. This is normally low-risk exploration with high probability of success. And new discoveries can be put on stream quickly since they will require limited new infrastructure.
The remaining 20% of the exploration wells will be drilled in new plays, still quite close to our infrastructure. These are higher potential wells but with somewhat higher risk than the pure infrastructure-led exploration targets. These wells can open new plays also in known areas such as the Kveikje, Heisenberg and Norma discoveries during the last years. Discoveries that you may not have heard about, but you should not underestimate them because there are many of them, and these could open new plays with large potential on the NCS.
RR once the R3 project was sanctioned for development and close proximity especially to the pipeline just 30 km away, those 2C should be reclassified as 2P and be worth at least $120-$140m ($4/barrel) imo as they are new long life production compared to mid-life/mature assets.
Phase 1 initial production to 1.5k bopd then phase 2 with inter field flowlines and moving to 5k bopd. Personally hoping that with the upside potential in deeper levels and pressure communication on one of the bigger fields (Amdigh) it may double those reserves at little cost (but wait and see approach).
146 prospects/targets identified so yes i believe 2.8 billion bl recoverable estimate. I think they'll only every drill a fraction but if they can get to 3-400 mmbls reserves with production/pipeline access then they should be worth $1b+ particularly when we're paying $1250m for some 300 mmbls supposed reserves in S.Sudan thats mid-late life. Niger pipeline is to expand to 300k bopd with pumping stations. No reason why we can't get to 300 mbls reserves alone from the low hanging fruit at 75% COS on the Sokor alternances.
Trust - the compression project was to increase the gas export pressure to a maximum 81 bar and deliver 110 mmcf/d per train (x 2) if i've read it right. A $45m capex project with completion later this year.
Updated 3:50 PM GMT, February 24, 2024
ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — West Africa’s regional bloc known as ECOWAS has lifted travel, commercial and economic sanctions imposed on Niger that were aimed at reversing the coup staged in the country last year, a senior official announced Saturday.
https://apnews.com/article/west-africa-ecowas-niger-mali-burkina-faso-abuja-ae53abf8464dce5487cd7a3d73e0a9c0
Mommur
"perhaps after 5 years the major shareholdrers here feel the same"
To be factual -
LBE listed in November 2019 with only 10m shares just slightly over 4 years ago. (4 yrs/3 mnths).
58.% (5.8m) was held by instituitions and mangement had 8.3% (830k) leaving 33% or 3.3m free float shares.
The main fundraising of 45m shares at 75p came just 2.5 years ago in June 2021 which would be 4 in 5 of the current shareholders so i don't think you could describe them as - "perhaps after 5 years the major shareholdrers here feel the same" - any more than the share price swings as in Serica.
This is supported by 46% held by institutions with 26.3m, Directors & related parties on 3.22m at 5.7% with a free float of 27m of the total 57m shares in issue.
Regardless of the share price in that time, i think they've done fairly well with the opening discoveries to date. Followed all in the last 9 months by attracting a JV venture partner in Japex (with $100m of funding available that can attract a doubling to $200m in RBL for assets), adding the initial production assets and opening up with a significant asset with over $20m spend on it in Malaysia that on it's own could offer $1b of value on a success case given the multiple prospects, DHIs and methane measurements and gas cloud similar and described as analogous to 2 other milti tcf discoveries. But i expect it to deliver a decent valuation on lesser assets such as production and the existing discoveries.
Just because their ex Faroe holds no bearing. I don't see HH as the CEO in it anywhere (apologies if mistaken). As COO he follows the CEOs decision. There's may an ex director of Tullow who have gone and set up companies (AET from SEY for eg1).
Likewise for many shareholsders there's been a number of times to exit with substantial multi baggers at various times.
GKP listed at 48p and after it's operations in Algeria under performed and hamered down in 2008 to 3-7p was a buy for me on the very promising Shaikan block in Kurdistan and finally got out at 320p 3.5 years later before it ran on to 420p and over the following few years completely crashed to 1p and a restructuring. To me it's all about an optimum time for entry/exit and not trying to extract the last penny of profit but certianly looking for a multi bagger from here on the current strategy.
I remember it being a painfully slow burn so to speak at Sterling waiting for the asset injection which happened with the new strategy in May 21 and a rename. Could have been picked up at 8.5p Dec 19 and 14.5p in late 21 - now 41p and only the start for more acquisitions.
Likewise look at Serica 43p in March 2012 and could have been picked up in the 3p range Jan -April 2015 and at 5p to Sept that year.
90p Jan 2018. 57p 6 months later end of June.
140p range Feb 2019 - Jan 2020.
150p+ mid 2021
420p early 2022 retreating to 245p May 2022..
Averaged 240p for 2023.
Jan 2024 220p to it's current 178p.
12/6/22 - Britain's savviest investment couple are sitting on shares worth more than £80million after good news last week from Serica Energy. David and Debbie Hardy, who run a Midlands building firm, are the largest shareholders in the North Sea energy producer. Serica's shares to £2.90, sending the value of the Hardys' 10.4 per cent soaring to £82million. David, 63, and Debbie, 58, bought into the business for as little as 3p a share.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-10907389/STOCKS-WATCH-Canny-couples-80m-oil-gusher-Serica.html
I see someone perhaps equally canny has bought and increased to 4m here or 7% up from 6% back in October.
OMV seem to have gotten what they paid for the Sapura interest when the JV was formed in 2019 (9/11/18) on top of 5 years production income.
At the time Sapura had 260 mmboe 2P reserves and 2C resources. This went into the newly formed 50-50 Sapura/OMV JV ie 130 mmboe (or in gas around 0.8 TCF).
As OMVs Chairman (J Pleininger) said at the time - production trebled from 10,000 boepd at the time to around 36,000 boepd for the JV at the time of the present sale (Jan 2024) to Total Energies for $903m.
There has been significant production over the last 5 years. The large Jerun Gas field to start production later this year.
This from November 2018 -
'Sapura and OMV inked a joint venture (JV) agreement for the strategic partnership today, as a follow-up to a Heads of Agreement (HoA) signed between the two parties on Sept 12.
The deal entails OMV subscribing to 50% of the enlarged issued share capital of Sapura Upstream for US$540 million, and to repay US$350 million worth of shareholders’ loan owed by Sapura Upstream to Sapura Energy.
This marks a cash consideration of US$890 million to Sapura Energy.
OMV also agreed for an additional consideration worth US$55 million plus up to another US$30 million in contingency funds mainly linked to the resource volume in Block 30, Mexico at the time of taking the final investment decision.
Under the agreement, OMV will fully consolidate the JV company’s assets in its financial statements, which comprises 260 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in proven and probable (2P) and contingent (2C) reserves,
“Already right now, [the JV] has a great portfolio that is fit for growth. So what we are aiming for is to triple the production in the next two years from close to 10,000 boe/d currently to 30,000 boe/d in 2020,” said Pleininger.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/sapura-seals-deal-divest-50-upstream-unit-omv-ag-us975m
So that's our new head of exploration in Malaysia just joined with a substantial track record.
Has just come from the Sapura-OMV joint venture after 5 years.
Before that over 5 years with Sapura.
Interesting that he was involved with SK310, SK408 and our own block 2C in the last decade which just never got drilled.
The Sapura-OMV JV was created in 2019 and OMV sold their 50% stake in the JV a few weeks ago for $900m.
TotalEnergies Signs an Agreement for the Acquisition of OMV’s Upstream Gas Assets in Malaysia
PARIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 31, 2024-- Regulatory News:
TotalEnergies (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) has signed an agreement with OMV to acquire its 50% interest in Malaysian independent gas producer and operator SapuraOMV Upstream Sdn (SapuraOMV) for a consideration of $903 million (including the transfer of a $350 million loan granted by OMV to SapuraOMV), subject to customary closing adjustments.
SapuraOMV’s main assets are its 40% operated interest in block SK408 and 30% operated interest in block SK310, both located offshore Sarawak in Malaysia. In 2023, SapuraOMV’s operated production (100%) was about 500 Mcf/d of natural gas, feeding the Bintulu LNG plant operated by Petronas, as well as 7 kb/d of condensates. On block SK408, the development of the Jerun gas field is on track for startup in the second half of the year 2024
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=600-202401310912BIZWIRE_USPRX____20240131_BW403455-1
and
'Block SK 408 contains seven discoveries from eight wells drilled. Five of the seven are understood to be commercial, and three are in the development stage – Gorek, Larak and Bakong, which have resource sizes ranging from 0.5 Tcf to 1.5 Tcf.
The jewel in the crown in Block SK 408 is the 2016 Jerun gas discovery, which contains up to 3 Tcf.'
https://sapuraenergy.com/sapura-ep-keeping-low-profile-high-rewards/
Basically that's a $900m sale of 20% in SK408 and 15% in SK310 equal to net production of around 18,000 boepd.
SK310 (B15 field) has produced about 68% of its reserves according to one energy report.
Are we talking about 1.2 - 2 tcf net sale ? There's also a small interest in a Mexican oil discovery of which they are a minority partner.
LBEs Block 2C with Kertang estimated at 9 TCF mid recoverable. Multiple other prospects and 2 are each half the size of Kertang and covered by 3D so perhaps 15 TCF and if 20% retained on farmout could mean 1.8 - 3 TCF net target.
Performance has been slow to say the least but let's hope we are on the cusp of a transformational deal and potentially $1.8b combined annual revenues if all goes through as hoped for.
It's why i haven't been tempted at all to switch or sell my stock paticularly while there could be significant news still to come re Chad decision and other deals.
I don't disagree with the frustration and i know a few went to pastures new over a year ago but i've kept an eye on 2 stocks that an other poster selected while i decided to stay firmly put no matter how supposedly attractive they looked at the time compared to here.
PRD down near 40% this morning to around 8p while I3E has also slumped from 21.15 to 8.6p and a substantial reduction in dividend as well, so at least at 26.25p my money (for now) hasn't performed any worse in that period. I'd like to think a deal here will materially re-rate the company whereas the other two stocks now need time and work to improve their share prices over the next number of months or even much longer ? and where perhaps SAVE is tantalisingly close to completion ?
I've used 'nameless' as the poster because its not intended to be personal in any way - merely pointing out my rationale for not budging/company belief and reflecting on the performance on those 2 stocks if i had followed suit.
'Nameless' - I3E Price: 21.15 - 22 Dec 2022 07:26
' Phew. Finally the RNS We've all been waiting for. Excellent news. Just done and re-checked my numbers. I'll be getting over £1000 or month gross and net income next year. That will do very nicely towards my pension income. Thank you Majid.'
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Nameless : PRD Price: 8.25 - 16 Dec 2022 10:12
'Happy to participate in these at just over 8p. (and) Two of those blocks were mine. 8.11p and 8.14p.'
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Nameless : PRD Price: 6.00 - 17 Mar 2023 12:02
'So, I take from today's RNS that the Best estimate of total gas resource, net to PRD, of 615bcf, has a prospective full value using a 25% COS for commerciality, of some £246mn, using the valuation metric of $2/bcf, at today's fx rate. That's 10x today's total MC.'
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Nameless: PRD Price: 12.75.5 Feb 2024 08:00
'We are going into a news-rich period in PRD's life cycle now. Hold onto those golden tickets for dear life, tempting as it may be to trade, take profits after a sudden jump or become obsessed with near term developments.'
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Trustilie
My thoughts are - If SAVE wants to avoid cancellation from AIM then the simplest thing to do is publish the admission document.
What is missing from it that can't be published ? (seems to be not dependent on Govt approval as necessary and none of the other acquisitions were - ahead of previous adm docs, Nigeria, Chad.)
It's already clear that when they announced the deal, the adm doc would come followed later by govt approval - says so in the original RNS.
It was intended to be published in H1 23, (RNS 12/12/23), again reiterated for publication H1 23 (RNS 13/4/23). RNSd again for adm doc publication by 30/9/23 (RNS 27/7/23).
Since then no mention of the adm document -
Then completion moved to 1/2/24 (RNS 14/12/23) - specifically mentions completion with no mention of the adm doc.
Again no mention of the adm doc when it was moved to latest timeline of 2/4/24 (RNS 1/2/24) but completion with reciept of in-country approvals.
Is that the reason we may be close and why there's an agreement from AIM this past two times of 8 week extensions ?
Surely if AIM says either publish or don't and be cancelled, then the Adm doc should come to prevent that.
Regardless of a short term gyration to the s/p with the adm doc issued, it would surely rectify itself when govt approval is given ?
Maurel and Prom announce the Assala deal on 15/8/23.
With what looks to be within the 3 month time frame and which i take as when the govt and Cemac is notified, the Gabon govt say they take the decision to exercise their pre-emption right on 25/11/23.
M&P update the market on 25/1/24 re the Govts pre-emption and their right to do so.
M&P update the market today noting yesterdays signing of the deal between the Govt and Carlyle for the Assala assets and the end of the deal for them and done/dusted in 6 months.
At no point have Save informed the market of any pre-emption by the S.Sudan government nor has S. Sudan said they were pre-empting the deal in the last 15 months.
I would have thought that if S.Sudan had said they were pre-empting the deal, then SAVE would have had to tell the market by now of that fact.
I beleive like Accugas/Nigeria they are continuing on the so called (lengthy) workstreams and approvals - mentioned (on 1/2/24) by AI to be concluded in a few weeks and backed up by AIM extensions.
Thoughts or views anyone ?
More dilution post consolidation which I expected and was clearly sign posted and today for around £1m net. Not even clear exactly how the cash will be split but I expect they were running on air as I posted awhile back given working capital needs.
Still paying the bills by issuing shares. £84k in 2.6m shares or 1% dilution. Shareholders powerless to reign this in.
Seperately this has to be one of the biggest assets landed for a company of this size - ie Block 2A (not counting the hunt for other Asian production assets).
To have 52.5% of a 12,000 km2 block of this size with over 6,000 km2 of 3D seismic not to mention 17,500 km lines of 2D is phenomenal.
The cost to carry out that amount of seismic would run into the tens of $millions alone along with the extensive geochemistry work confirming very high concentrations of methane and low CO2. That can't be understated.
At about 17 mins into the interview James Menzies says they beleive there could be in excess of 9 TCF recoverable for Kertang.
At 18:30 he states that 'there are multiple structures surrounding Kertang that are also extremely big - it's just that they are dwarfed by this giant.'
When you refer back to the Topaz slides particularly page 6 you can see '3 main identified prospects' which includes Kertang. The two other structures are in very close proximity to Kertang with the other 2 combined having an area roughly the size of Kertang itself. All 3 are covered by 2,900 km2 of 3D seismic.
Given the analogue description to the smaller 6 TCF Kasawari field - taking into account the 3 main structures, there could well be potential for 15+ TCF recoverable here.
Retaining 10-20% post farmout would be potentially huge given a ready gas market.
Not since Cove acquired 8.5% offshore Rovuma from struggling Artumas in 2009 has there been an opportunity as big imo.
Their share price was 9p in 2009. If you were patient, Dolmens Brian Gallagher called it a speculative buy on tues 9th March 2010 and a target of 59p.
By the time Shell had bid in Feb 2012 there was an estimated 20+ tcf recoverable estimated. Shell bid $1.8b while PTTEP of Thailand pipped them with a $1.9b takeout at 240p post tax.
Coves 8.5% share of 20-30 TCF = 1.7 - 2.55 TCF.
Reataining 10-20% of block 2A for LBE could mean on the 3 prospects covered by 3D, there might be 1.5 - 3 TCF net to play for here irrespective of all other assets.
So did anyone know beforehand exactly when the JAPEX JV was coming 2/5/23 - (9 months ago) ?
or the first production assets on 3/7/23 ?
Likwise nobody will know until the next announcement when the current assets under review are agreed upon and announced to the market.
Japex did not get involved for fun. They have to be mutually agreed assets and there is a sizeable pot of $100m which can effectively be doubled through debt or RBL lending. With a 5 year window and for the ability of assets to be potentially paid down in 2-3 years from the effective transaction date, we could be looking at $3-400m available in total 2 years on.
It's hard to say Ian.
Some of these institutions have major funds under management and while holdings in SAVE for the top 9 including the EBT are just shy of 60% it might not register that high at all on their overall FUM.
For a few weeks to a few months this either going to transform from $280m to nearly $1.8b yearly revenues with a significant debt reduction (we hope) on the transaction cost 2.25 years on ? and IIs seeing a more realistic valuation/re-rating with perhaps further deals in the pipeline in the short-medium term for continued growth ?.
If they were to pay a $50m div (from $1.8b revs) it's about 12% at the current valuation at 26p to 4% at 78p which imo would be affordable relative to low debt and a $70/b oil price.
Maybe a need to wait and see the expansion plans re reneweables - would IIs pull their money without seeing the details of that growth arm/performance next few years. On the above they'd have to now pull that money and look for opportunities anew and success while Save might be on the cusp of transformation. They may not react in the same way as PIs re access to capital. Just imo.
To me it looks like they want govt approval prior to even issuing the adm document given the wording this morning. In no deals have i seen approval needed prior to an adm document so perhaps that's SAVEs stipulation ?
From Trustilies AI article yesterday, i wonder where did AI pck up on completion expected in the next few weeks to print thar re S.Sudan -
"In the next few weeks, moreover, it is also expected to complete the purchase of the interests of Malaysia's Petronas group in South Sudan in an operation it announced in 2022."
I still don't think it necesarily means though that it could take right up to the 2nd April and could come through before that.
If there's already 2 years to be deducted from the settlement at 50k bopd using $20/b it's $30m/month or $720m to the end of December 2023 with another $90m this quarter to end of March imo. I still think that up to $250m may have been allowed for contingencies on higher oil prices and/or production rates spread over x years.
Apologies it was an RNS release.
It's a presentation plain and simple that the asset is being showcased there and non RNS.
Not meant to set the market alight.
I don't think it's replacing Gabon with Chad nor do i think why would SAVE even entertain this Gabon/Assala transaction.
I remember it was specifically asked what level of boepd production did they want to go to and how much net debt they would take on and be comfortable with.
Reply was, It wasn't coming down to achieving a target boepd figure for boepd sake. Boepd deals etc were only going to be acquired on a risk/reward value accretive basis and they didn't think in terms of net debt and how much - but risk - and how the overall debt per asset was ringfenced and financed.
So on that basis i don't think it's down to just securing 2-3 deals but the right opportunistic deals and how they are bought and paid for and risk. It's as easy to run a 50k bopd opperation as it can be 5 or 10k.
If they feel capable of running the asset on the above basis then i think it's fairly well considered - they have run over about 40 odd deals i think 27 in 2022 and 21 in 2021 from memory.
They have the authority to seek financing of up to $2.5 billion built in for a good number of years without seeking shareholder approval for greater than that.
On that basis and how they have described it, i would not be surprised that they will consider to seek out major deals.
To me, Chad is running in the background on a compensation basis for X amount of loss/damage times x years. I don't see that being shrugged off as a bad deal without recompense but to be taken in our stride and surely the lawyers to the deal have provided water tight advice and some level of guarantee ?.
Just my opinion on S.Sudan, but on a $1250m total figure for circa 50k bopd and the AI rumoured 300 mmbls - that figure should be well under half if the effective transaction date is 1/1/22 (though as ever we won't know the full details until an adm doc).
With that S Sudan present cost factor in mind, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see them continuing to hunt for other deals in this environment as other companies continue to do.
Following on from S.Sudan they said they hoped to close at least 1 further hydrocarbon acquistion by last year end - ie "at least one" - so 2-3+ would come as no surprise to me over time.
Not all plain sailing for any of them. It's not unique to AK/Save but certainly frustrating being a shareholder.
Sepl has sufferred over the years from lost and shut in production over oil theft and major pipeline shut-ins causing force-majuere. In addition their gas build up has been slower than expected. Every trick in the book re court cases and attempts to kick the CEO out of the country - pretty hair raising on a one country focus.
Seplats deal with Exxon is still not cleared yet in Nigeria. In Oct 2023 they were still confident of it being approved.
First announced back on 25th Feb 2022 so almost 2 years and with an effective transaction date of 1/1/21 so now over 3 years in the making although some of the agreed terms have changed a little due to the deal taking so long and Exxons ongoing involvement.
M&P ran into problems with it's takeover of Wentworth first time around and now the Assala dea in Jeapordy.
Exxons sale on Zafiro turned sour and the FPSO sent for scrap.
Zenith relatively small assets in Tunisia (compared to Saves Chad) and suing for just over $85m.
Even Kosmos and it's partner Tullow had to go to arbitration claims to resolve their dispute.
You only have to look outside Africa and Cairns history in suing India for hundreds of millions.