Member Info for ZENGAS

Vietnam isn't the only news. There's a lot more gas in Indonesia that they are chasing.

The analyst visit to Akatara in Indonesia is early next month. What more are analysts likely to say re Indonesian expansion plans (on top of Vietnam) ?

The CEO said last week -

'Akatara provides us with an excellent platform in which to build our Indonesia business further'

'We're looking to expand our footprint in Indonesia both organically and in-organically' - To me that's new asset deals and work on existing acreage.

Re the Lemang PSC where Akatara is located on the 743 km2 PSC - There's already a similar sized structure there to Akatara (and wasn't Akatara originally an oil producing field prior to the gas project taking over ?).

'Work continues on reprocessing 2D seismic on the Lemang PSC' - I heard this as wanting to replace the terms of the PSC requirement for 3D acquisition and drill a well in 27 instead if agreed by the ministry? They mentioned prospect generation next year and identify near field prospects to tie in any gas discoveries to existing infrastructure.

They spoke of their excellent relationship with the Indonesian govt so it's interesting that they are bringing the analysts there to showcase Akatara and imo the success of that project should lead to similar or greater deals.

Ahh now,

'Selective facts that ignore the execution risks' - You mean there's risk ? Serious ?

Average investors - (Eff me, the assumptions you make so speak for yourself) . There's fellow posters here that give many analysts a run for their money.

This isn't play school.

Boats, ships and aeroplanes carry lifejackets for a reason !

'The Zengas's of this world are a hazard to the average investor' -

Speaking of hazards - Didn't the HX of this world tell the the board he was fully loaded up on SEPL about 2.5 years ago and had to 'exercise control' in not buying more when they were a quid - only shortly later going on about his old favourite - 'execution risk' and drastically reducing, and not a post since, while they increased in price by 200% - not a bad return for the next 24 months for those in charge of their own minds.

My opinion, thoughts, reasoning are well known/laid out here.

Next time you're bored on a Saturday morning try scratching your bolls if you have any HX.

Just an opinion DYOR .

Wakening up to value surely given the Vietnamese NamDu-U-Minh project is moving very close now to being fully approved.

30 mmboe to move to 2P.

How much will they farm-out ? for cash ? part carried development ? or variations to that ?

50% farmout still leaves them with 15 mmboe 2P to book.

Surrounded by close proximity prospects and leads for an esitimated 166 mmboe in place.

Don't forget - approval unlocks $140m of recoverable previously sunk costs - cash we previously wouldn't claw back without approval.

Huge incentive for a farm out partner with that. 50% farmout would leave us to recover $70m of those past costs which is a significant sum attached to the project.

Why imo it's cheap and fair value of at least 40p - and still at a huge discount to the broker target of 68p and JSEs valuation of $652m (including net debt/decommissioning) which equates to 89p. That hasn't included the reclassification of Vietnamese 2C or the start up of the Puteri cluster award of a shut in net 3k bopd in the previous Malaysia bid round.

I’ve thought about that too Oiltdr. Not only for filling up the coffers when interest is high and a strong share price, but how does an institution gain a significant holding when the shares are tightly held. Little volume buying and the shares move significantly as too when sellers around.

I had £2-£3 from early days for SEA reason being low shares in issue but patience and liquidity etc. Much more if they're fully successful on 2A whenever that is drilled.

Could get to £2 on JSE with Vietnam, Malaysia fields and an acquisition or two in the pipeline - after all it's their stated aim plus negligible and almost wiped out net debt moving to net cash positive.

Initial broker targets on SEA from Cavendish 21/10/24 price 13.8p and no target - under review. This was the stage when some of us on pointed out (and much earlier) that what it had could be worth a lot more than 3 figures and now they're actually saying it too - but imo always pays to dyor early and think ahead before the brokers start looking at it piecemeal. 20/11/24 price then 38p and a target of 78.3p (exceeded August 2025). 2/12/24 price then 36.5p and a new target of 85p. (high 82.5p September 2025). 18/3/25 - 3 months later price then lower at 34.5p and target of 85p repeated. 19/8/25 - 8 months on from December price 69p and a new target of 111p. Currently 82p.

Same applies to SEA and JSE down the road as performance/new deals etc would certainly change the valuation targets.

JSE previously had a 111p share price/£450m m/cap in mid 2022 - though on higher oil prices of $109/b but 15k boepd and the same revenues compared to today with a $70b price + 20k boepd and a better oil/gas mix and revenues same as 2022 - yet a substantial increase in 2P & 2C. The 68p Berenberg target reflects a £368m m/cap. On that basis and on further progress and stated strategic deal aims, i could see £2 region potential and bearing in mind that missed 28k boepd asset deal.

Sea

$10m cash. No production.

M/cap at 80p = £53m.

Broker target 111p.

63 mmboe 2C and if they farm out 50% of Temaris should be left with about 42 mmboe 2C

which would move to reserves on project sanction.

Dewa first production 2027. 100 mmcf/d gross (17k boepd)

28% = approx 4750 boepd.

Capex of $5-$7 per boe needed for start up.

Temaris

On current trajectory first production late 27/into 2028. 100 mmcf/d gross/17k boepd

50% after farmout = approx 8,500 boepd.

2A to drill in 26/27 and approx 160 mmboe net prospect. Obviously a game changer if it comes in otherwise steady progress regardless on Dewa/Temaris

Stated aim for further licencing rounds/possible producing assets at the right money ?

--------------

Jadestone already at 20,000+ boepd production.

$53m net debt which is low relative to revenue and assets developed but should now fall rapidly with no major short term capex spend given $400m+ revenues.

M/cap at 22p = £119m.

Asset valuation pre Vietnam $652m = 89p (including net debt and decommissioning).

Berenberg target 68p.

60 mmboe 2P. 128 mmboe 2C.

Vietnam NamDu/U-Minh to add min 15 mmboe 2P assuming 50% farm-out.

Likely 8500 boepd net. Regulator approved, awaiting ministry consent and tenders out for equipment.

Peninsular Malaysia 60% of Puteri Cluster award (same time approx as SEAs DEWA) shut in at 5,000 boepd gross/3,000 boepd net.

15 mmbls gross 2C = 9 mmboe to move to 2P on project sanction.

Should move Jadestone to over 80 mmboe 2P and a future 25,000+ boepd minimum allowing for any natural declines elsewhere prior to start up.

Vietnam NamDu-U-Minh licence has further 1 TCF/166 mmboe prospective gas in place estimate.

Late Q1 - 2 well drilling start on East Belamut field Malaysia to add production from undeveloped reserves.

Discussions on sweeter terms for a number of Malaysian licences.

Made a move to acquire 28,000 boepd from Woodside in 2024 but asset pulled from sale so shows scale of assets they are interested in.

Stated aim for more acquisition/strategic deals. Anything signed would move the valuation target higher again

Woodside consolidated interest from Chevron on CWLH fields through acquisition (not yet approved). JSE might have some pre-emtion rights pro rata relative to their share.

Klinchenberg acquisition doesn't come through until sometime in Q1 next year.

$65.4m total cost of which they are going to use a $37.4m debt facility. Economic date is 31/12/24.

Klichenbergs total assets are valued at $196.9m so the 50% interest should add $98m to our overall valuation pool.

Mpatamanga (44.4 MW) and Ruzizi III (20.18 MW) aren't built. I assume the after tax income of $17.4m for K'berg came from its dividend share from its interest in Bujagali (34.68 MW).

If the Cavendish figures are correct and with SAVE buying 50.1% that should give them $8.7m/yr for the next 16 years (pro rata the 3 Hydros could contribute around $25m/yr for 50% of Klinchenbergs (99 MW 100%) share across the 3 hydros in time with the other 2 likely for a similar period of 30 years to Bujagali.

The difference here compared to Accugas is that you're not supplying any gas (or oil) to generate the power nor drill wells and associated processing/compression etc costs. So i don't see the same issues compared to the receivables lag in Nigeria.

This transaction is supposedly the first of several they expect to announce over the next 2 years. But the above is the first one where we will now have immediate direct income from the Power Division which will be a significant milestone. Will be interesting to see what progress if any is made on the Niger wind farm and the Cameroon hydro/solar projects.

The Power Division has to throw off a minimum $100m/yr dividend imo otherwise there's little point to it. Things are looking interesting now as to how this can contribute separate value to the hydrocarbon side and hopefully get a valuation target from this when Cavendish update post results.

How things might look if we could pull in $100m -$200m receivables and potentially $300m+ of compensation ? Plus further out - addressing the entire almost $470m receivables due over a further 3 years or so as these other deals come in.

Into Q2 2026 post Uquo drilling, i'd like to see at least 5,000 boepd of new gas sales worth around $40m per year and the further 1500 bopd/$30m

of Sipec oil come online.

Yet to see what Blacksea bring to the table in terms of $200m financing for hydrocarbon deals.

New strategic investor and AK contribution 10 days approx after the accounts to bring in about $13m. $2m still outstanding from Fenikso to be paid by Dec 31.

Very clear on the Montara/Stag abandonment costs, the bulk of which are 9 years away.

Montara

$94m between 2030 - 2035.

$94m post 2035.

Stag

$166m post 2035 and that's before PRRT refunds.

Studying the Montara gas resources to offset future costs.

Potential to redeploy the Montara FPSO.

Potential acquisitions being looked at (possible - given they've executed some 16 deals so far). 'Continues to explore strategic opportunities to complement its organic growth activities' (Puteri cluster shut in at 5,000 boepd of which we have 60% 3,000 boepd net - 15 mmbls gross/9 mmboe net 2C + significant upside).

Vietnam NamDu/U-Minh on a 50% farmout should be adding around 15 mmboe 2P - this alone should be worth the present m/cap imo.

Further 166 mmboe un-risked resources in place.

Valuation approx $652m which is about 90p v current $137m (incl abandonment) so a significant valuation gap at just over 20% of current valuation and still excluding Vietnam reclassification of reserves on project approval.

Cash building with little capex spend going forward. So imo 5-6 months of production since net debt position of $53.5m at 31/8/25 which i expect to fall rapidly before drilling late Q1 2026 Malaysia if that plan still stands ($40m approx 2 wells) with ongoing production/revenue generation.

20,300 boepd production. 60 mmboe 2P (Vietnam /Puteri would increase that to 80 mmboe 2P plus a significant future production hike + any potential acquisition(s).

100p+ of potential target value. Should be 40p post todays update.

These are excellent results.

Expecting a rapid decrease to net cash positive position, given no major capex in the near term.

Vietnam approval will push the P2 reserves much higher (value increase).

Should be an exciting time ahead with what they're alluding to, in terms of achieving both organic and inorganic growth.

11.6m trade away at 17p. Hopefully the seller is done at this size and a big block of stock.

10th Sept.

Ingalls and Snyder increased by 11.5m to 194m (12.05%) since the previous update late July. Don’t see any other changes to those above 3%.

They say they expect to release the annual results along with this years half in September. Given the half year results this past 4 years came out on the 30th, that’s when I expect news and the subscription thereafter.

I posted this on the SEA thread

' Remembering here when analyst ratings were mentioned, we got met with comments like analyst targets are never or rarely met. Was the case here barely a year back when on 16/7/24 Auctus said it was ceasing coverage.

My point is if you do your own research you can be ahead of their value analysis .

Cavendish

21/10/24 price 13.8p and no target - under review. This was the stage when some of us on pointed out (and much earlier) that what it had could be worth a lot more than 3 figures .

20/11/24 price then 38p and a target of 78.3p (exceeded last month).

2/12/24 price then 36.5p and a new target of 85p (high 82.5p last week).

18/3/25 - 3 months later price then lower at 34.5p and target of 85p repeated.

19/8/25 - 8 months on from December price 69p and a new target of 111p.

Imo, on even partial success it has the assets to achieve that and more on a patient basis. '

JSEs results 2 weeks away and we should see how they are doing in the exact same region. Seller or no seller imo, doesn't take away from the case that on many metrics already posted, it's significantly undervalued.

Remembering here when analyst ratings were mentioned we got met with comments like analyst targets are never or rarely met. Was the case here barely a year back while back when on 16/7/24 Auctus said it was ceasing coverage.

My point is if you do your own research you can be ahead of their value analysis .

Cavendish

21/10/24 price 13.8p and no target - under review. This was the stage when some of us on pointed out (and much earlier) that what it had could be worth a lot more than 3 figures .

20/11/24 price then 38p and a target of 78.3p (exceeded last month).

2/12/24 price then 36.5p and a new target of 85p (high 82.5p last week).

18/3/25 - 3 months later price then lower at 34.5p and target of 85p repeated.

19/8/25 - 8 months on from December price 69p and a new target of 111p.

Imo, on even partial success it has the assets to achieve that and more on a patient basis.

Hi Snaffleman I'd echo komakinos post.

I also wish to see what the outcome of the Uquo drilling yields with an expected 80 mmcf/d deliverability from the new well. I'm hoping that they quickly add or already have customers lined up for at least 30 mmcf/d of that and at $3.50/mcf it would represent $40m sales. At $65/b oil, they have a furrther $35m of oil sales from Stubb Creek to bring on.

Both the recievables and a decent settlement in Chad could actually leave us cash positive.

If the debt and the cost of financing it were wiped out, we'd be throwing off a lot of cash instead and at a time of increased gas and oil sales (Uquo/Stubb Creek). Maybe there's other plans for acquisitions via the new investors ? (Sept 4th looming or an amendment ?).

Been far from ideal but i feel we are a lot closer to a lot of outcomes than we've ever been this past 3 years. It's for that reason i've stayed put and added back in March. Good luck with whatever decison you make.

Cash should be building and continuing to build at 20,000 boepd.

No major 2026 capex coming through until end of Q1 ( which allows for significant cash build) and then $40m going forward from that point on for drilling 2 East Belamut oil wells. Perhaps $60m capex for 26 or less ?

Let's not forget they are looking at further acquisitions and they were in the bidding and suspended for Woodsides asset sale of 28,000 boepd only for Woodside to subsequently pull it from sale.

I'd prefer to see a furrther decent sized acquisition added to perhaps taking us to 25-30,000+ boepd region before Vietnam/Malaysia cluster bring on a future 10-12k boepd+ net and the fact that they were going for some 28,000 boepd of new production shows the type of deals they are prepared to go for.

Vietnam NamDu/U-Minh development asset has a further 1.5 TCF in place potential in addition to the discovered 30 mmboe 2C.

Good man Paul, i well remember your rubbishing of me barely 14 months ago. There's always folk like yourself who wouldn't see the wood for the trees in spotting early gems with quality assets (such as 2A) or stocks ripe for recovery. Never hurts to be respectful.

12/4/24

You’re new here and it shows Zengas

13/4/24

You can disagree all you like but the market agrees with me, hence a share price of 16p

1/5/24

“Nick Ingrassia was on 230k and moves up to CEO replacing Helge Hammer who was on £300k” (Zengas). 

So Nick Ingrassia and Helge Hammer have taken over a million each in salary alone since setting up the company, for doing precisely nothing. 

It beggars belief but that’s AIM for you.

10/5/24

Is this company ever going to do anything?




29/5/24 8.25p

And people said I was being negative!

18/6/24

concerned that Nick Ingrassia remains involved with the new company. He orchestrated the failed exploration programme.

Charlie

How do you know 'No IIs won't touch JSE with a bargepole'. Is that your assumption or canvass of every Inst out there ?

They can turn on a whim when it's not their money. I have IIs at 48% (Tyrus 29%) approx and without checking i thought last time i looked, Valeura was 36% (but i stand to be corrected). Tyrus continued to add in JSE says something and they're closer to the company with a director.

Large seller cleared out 14 months ago with over 7.7% in SEA at 15p region as it fell to 5p - touched 80 today. When they were getting out, I was getting in - against many opposite and critical views at the time focussed on past performance/critical of management - new blood there as here.

I don't see what your issue (earlier post) is in selling Sinpuhorm for $39.5m and a possible $3.5m contingent. It respresented 1-1500 boepd going forward of lowered production target by end '25. It had 3.8 mmboe 2P and 4 mmboe 2C. They sold for whatever reason but it raised a considerable profit and as they say they have no critical mass or scale in Thailand - compared to 64.5 mmboe 2P and 124.8mmboe 2C now (189 mmboe) in the core assets and mid guidance of 20,500 boepd for all 25.

If you compare Akatara to the Sinuphorm sales price - Akatara has 23 mmboe 2P and 0.9 mmboe 2C . As an early life producing asset, i'd see this as $140m sales value alone. (3x that of S/Phorm).

The focus on the low net debt is totally misguided imo in seeing the value here and i look at it totally differently and in context.

Yes there was a 60% cost over-run on Skua but i don't see any acknowledgement by yourself in them getting a 70%+ greater flow rate of 6,000 bopd against an initial expected 3500 bopd and was producing at a stable 4400 bopd which is similarly 50% above what the previous initial 3500 bopd would have been expected to stabilise somewhat lower than 3500. In addition and why this appears to be - is the reservoir section is more than 100% greater than in any previous Skua well - so potential to balance up the initial cost over-run in production and possibly reserves. So in fairness it's too easy to focus on just the cost aspect and not the overall result which takes most (if not all) possibly the sting out of the cost !

In this respect and for me personally I don't care about institutions at this point. Like SEA it's presented a buying op. Yes not without risk as any investment is, but the assets are more diverse now and I expect a move on the Montara gas aspect in due course as it's one of three value creation projects recently mentioned for organic growth. Similarly i see assets being added to their core critical areas. For that reason i see this as a totally undervalued company.

Deeko

One out there, same address with the cash is Valeura Energy (Malaysia & Thailand ops)

106.26m shares @ $5.90/£4.37 = £464m m/cap.

Cash $241m/£178m

M/cap without the cash = £286m = 52p equivalent share price for JSE.

VLE (JSE in brackets) figures.

Production 21,400 boepd. (20,300 boepd).

P2 57.6 mmboe. (64 mmboe)

2C 41 mmboe. (102 mmboe).

VLE state they are significantly undervalued at present.

Strip out Vals cash and the equivalent valuation share price is 52p for JSE.

Add in up to $80m/£60m net debt to JSE and the share price is 41.7p for JSE.

Our broker target price is 70p.

We've previously been the equivalent of 85p/share allowing for dilution yet with less 2P/2C and production. Now production is back at its highest level from a wider range of assets.

Additionally we have circa 13,000 boepd dev projects and can move some 2C on FID to 80 mmboe 2P.

Why the likes of Valeura would be on the lookalike for acquisitions - Put cash to use. Their four fields have 4.3, 5.2, 6.4 and 8.3 years production life remaining as mature assets.

JSE are also looking at more acquisitions. Quite simply, we are far too cheap on various metrics. I think some will sleep in on this relative to SEA 12 months ago and value never getting back to 100p when at a low of 5p with many throwing in the towel/slating posters a year ago on value/getting in early on the turnaround. At 80p now Sea is half the m/cap of JSE.

Not sure i buy the results aren't quite yet ready statement. Doesn't take the prior months and soon to be 3 months over-run while maintaining the half year will be out next month. They must already be working on those. Last 4 years have been 30th Sept release so there's a 4 week wait imo - and what of the strategic investor ?

While Cavendish have included the 4th Sept strategic investor shares and AKs take up to a total of 1749.3m shares - the almost 139m shares have yet to come in with the on or before date of next Thursday 4th Sept and circa $13m cash to be received. No reference or update on that this morning. A final $2m to be paid to SAVE from Fenikso prior to year end so $15m to become available in the bigger picture (if the strategic investor comes in otherwise if not, the shares in issue will be lower).

Call me cynical but with all the RTO issues/suspensions, are the delayed accounts helpful for any other deal making negotiations - strategic investor/4th Sept a case in point ?

While first gas from the new Uquo well is maintained as end of Q1 they have been able to shift a lot of the planned capex out of the 2025 accounting period ie with drilling moved to January. Likewise with no satisfactory agreement still not entered into on Niger oil, i can't see them doing anything in the 2025 accounting period either. That will defer capex outlay that bit longer especially at a time when they want to show net debt significantly reduced - and hopefully with a decent sized payment from the Nigerian Govt on legacy debt which begs the question why is the debt facility still not signed ?

What exactly would any sizeable legacy debt receivable be used for ? Bar any acquisition why keep paying significant interest on debt when it would free up significant additional cash available to the company and shareholders ?

With the legacy debt in part being addressed soon as in media reports/govt talks and the arbitrations cases getting closer to conclusion - if successful, could leave them debt free or net cash positive bar any major acquisition - and couple that to additional gas sales from end Q1 and further 1500 bpd Sipec oil to come on stream next year. Plenty of positives imo this morning despite the annoyance of suspension.

In addition to the Tennyson note, Shore maintained at 33p Core valuation and risked 39p. Cavendish 51.5p target.