Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
TC, Not sure about closing it by the 15th. It’s their intention to get the adm doc out by the 15th and recommence trading.
On your own asset if approved how many bopd do you anticipate producing within the first 3 months and can you book 2P reserves or what’s the ball park range of 2P do you think is on the field ?
Will it be a PSC or if a SC what kind of SC fee per bl would you need or expect ?
I have no idea.
All I know is that they said they would close the deal by the 15th Dec
Tcwc- welcome to the board and thanks for your kind thoughts. How close are you to any detail of knowing if the SAVE deal will hopefully close?
I would like to wish SAVE shareholders all the best with the closing of their South Sudan oil deal this Friday.
If we manage to secure our asset in Sudan then we will end up being neighbours.
Chairman
Wildcat Petroleum Plc
Amount invested showing in total again. First time in 6 months.
makes me feel better anyway
RR
Cheapest quote from AI was £2,200 and their wallet facility is closed for watching and paying for articles of interest so doesn't justify the outlay any longer.
Roll on friday/monday where you woud think there would be an update.
Yes: it's been a one year papal conclave. Smoke from the chimney of Bank Street still grey...
And conversely, he may have been refusing to sign, forcing Kiir to bring in a more sensible person who will. We simply know nothing factual that’s going on with our potential deal and I’m surprised our detectives on here have seen hardly anything in trade press publications for what seems like an eternity.
He was probably just about to sign off for his department knowing our luck!
Niger Pipeline will start to export from Jan 2024 according to the below Reuters article. If it happens we need to find a way to get equipment into Niger to do the well test perhaps we can use CNPC to get what we need to carry on with our operations in Niger, as I am sure they will be able to source equipment and get into country considering the bulk of the production of crude will be theirs through the pipeline so if they are due to start production than I am sure there will be certain exceptions to the sanctions.
News from Niger side -
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/niger-aims-start-oil-exports-benin-pipeline-january-leader-says-2023-12-11/
News from Benin side -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamou-boubacar-572a3016_le-p%C3%A9trole-aplanit-le-contentieux-entre-le-activity-7138588585275834368-aBO1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Let's hope savannah are quick to progress in any case and are fully able to capitalise on the commencing of the export pipeline.
Rockyride as far as I can tell there is strong demand for our gas, and that demand will continue so i don't see demand tailing off, I think there may be some customers that might wanted treated gas rather than untreated and hence our CPF facility coming online H1 2024 will massively drive additional gas contracts, obviously one would expect the pricing of treated gas to be higher than untreated gas.
However signing additional untreated gas and stranded gas contracts to flow through our pipeline until the CPF facility is online isn't out the question.Personally I would like to get to 300 - 350 MMSCFD at some point next year which would equate to 53,172 - 62,034 BOEPD.
Rocky I refer to your update from IR post on 27 Nov 2023 17:21 where it provide update from accugas contracts
175 MMscfpd (Take or Pay) equates to 31,017 BOEPD. If that's correct and if that's fixed take or pay that means we are getting paid for 31,017 BOEPD per day at present, which is already a massive increment from our full year FY22 average of 25-26K
91 MMscfpd (Interruptible) equates to 16,129 BOEPD. So if you total 31,017 BOEPD take up and pay up + 16,129 BOEPD interruptible = 47,146 BOEPD.
Rocky - If your IR update is accurate than on a full take up basis we could be selling 47,146 BOEPD. Even if you factor in a 30% take up of the interruptible gas quota 16,129 BOEPD * 30% = 4,838 BOEPD + 31,017 BOEPD Take up gas = 35,855 BOEPD.
I am intrigued on the accugas front if that's our current run rate as we are massively outperforming even on FY22 numbers, unless I am missing something or unless there was something that was misinterpreted on the IR update ?
"The nameplate capacity of Accugas’ central processing facility is 200 MMscfpd, although it can process up to 240 MMscfpd. Our current take or pay customers amount to 175 MMscfpd, while our interruptible customers account for up to an additional 91 MMscfpd. The volumes supplied on a daily basis to customers vary based on a number of factors. We also distribute third-party gas, via our 260 km pipeline network, to our customers, following the ten-year agreement signed with Amalgamated Oil Company Nigeria Limited (“AMOCON”) earlier this year for the supply of up to 20 MMscfpd. There may be further opportunities for us to commercialise other stranded gas resources in South East Nigeria in this way, which represents a potentially significant opportunity for Accugas."
Great that our gas contracts are fixed rates + inflation, but with current gas prices in the doldrums, will we struggle to sell new contracts at decent prices?
I was just looking at the full year report and it has some detail on the proposed intention of how they are planning to re-structure.
Transitional Facility Agreement: The existing Accugas lenders have agreed to terms for a Transitional Facility. This facility is expected to be utilized in 2023 to repay the existing US Dollar Facility. The completion of this refinancing will align Accugas' principal revenue streams with its debt service obligations, reducing the Group's exposure to foreign exchange risks. It will also increase the tenor and enhance the structure of the debt facilities.
Refinancing of the Accugas US Dollar Facility: The company continued to work on refinancing the Accugas US Dollar Facility throughout 2022. The plan is to refinance this into a multi-tranche Naira-denominated borrowing structure with an average tenor of over 10 years. The initial step involves refinancing the current facility into a medium-term Naira bank debt facility (the Transitional Facility). This Transitional Facility will then be progressively paid down through the issuance of longer-dated debt instruments.
Repayment and Cancellation of Accugas US Dollar Facility: The Transitional Facility, which has a term of four years, will assist in fully repaying the Accugas US Dollar Facility. This repayment is planned to be done through a combination of long-dated domestic bond issuances and other bilateral facilities. The Accugas US Dollar Facility is expected to be fully repaid and cancelled in 2023.
If they can execute the above than that would be a brilliant outcome, as it will massively de-leverage our balance sheet to align the accugas debt with reserve life of the asset.
...I doubt it has much (or possibly any) significance, but we'll soon find out.
You’d think they’d be keen to sent out a big message to other companies / institutions but then again I am hugely biased. come hell or high water i hope we get a comprehensive update on other parts of our business even if the suspension is extended, although I accept thet we will get nothing of any substance on the 4 x ICC cases.
Https://theafricanstime.com/story/South%20Sudan:%20IMF%20Team%20Meets%20Finance%20Minister%20to%20Discuss%20Soliciting%20More%20Funds
"ensuring that South Sudan can solicit more funds from the global financial institutions and channel them to support the national budget and boost developmental activities."
Interesting quote - I am sure approving a transparent deal like Savannah will go along way in soliciting more funds from global financial institutions and bring confidence
Personally don't see CNPC and ONGC wanting to takeover Petronas stake, don't believe they would want to increase their current exposure as it is.
Nilepet meetings with CNPC are not uncommon after all they are partners. They even had a meeting in October where Nilepet execs flew out to China so nothing new.
Interesting take by Anas Alhajji on this, saying increasing production in South Sudan is not a priority for CNPC.
https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1717025605869346933
Ordinarily wouldn’t Petronas also have been a party to such a meeting?
Let’s hope CNPC say to Mr Kiir et al, we’d love to spend more money in your country but not until you extend the PSC licenses for our current blocks.
Let’s all keep our fingers crossed for SS closing ASAP as well his could mean we end up with around 80kboepd (inc Nigeria) with less than $1bn of debt and very large EBITDA + who knows how much bookable 2P!
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1733254790757388717
More than one way to interpret this...
I think that same take a guess question was asked about 15p back in August.
Given what we paid for Accugas/Nigeria and the fact that we have far more gas contracts in place, far higher production, compression upside capacity completing next year and already increased the P2 reserves - i stated i was looking for 20% upside to the purchase price or $800m = 45p.
More gas contracts expected post compression as well as opportunity for transporting 3rd party gas.
Debt should be around $400m so to me leaves a core valuation for Accugas/Nigeria around 22.5p that should be paid down/net cash building - no reason why Accugas won't continue to build in value and the refinancing would certainly free up cash if converted to a longer tenure.
The 33 mmbo 2C in Niger while uncertain re start-up and all the associated past costs should be worth $100m or 6p. Our rights were reported as protected so therefore on a sales basis if we can/don't go back in $100m seems reasonable given the pipeline's completed.
If we are awarded in favour on Chad every $100m must be worth around a similar 6p x 2-3-4X + ?
Not knowing what the outcome is on S.Sudan but if it is to complete then surely after all this time we would be up a net $500m on it by now if the effective date was 1/1/22 = 30p ?
Lot's of intrinsic value to be looked at rather than a throwaway 'i think it is worth 15p' comment. Who knows on readmission but at this price i'm not for making any kneejerk reaction at all.
Hi snaffleman
My posts in late August set out my DCF approach. I got to 9.4 pence on Nigeria, but that includes 100% of the central group overhead. Exclude that and I had 20.3 pence-ish. My model is based on the sectoral analysis from the company and disclosures in various RNSs.
It was pretty conservative, I think.
Rocky - He is still CFO so no change there, my guess is the company is at a stage where it needs a dedicated company secretary and Nick doesn't have to do both roles.
Is Nick Beatie still in post as CFO. I’ve always suspected some senior personnel would leave with the 47p and 68p hurdle prices for employee share scheme being so off target since they were launched a few years ago.