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I am certainly hoping for a substantial rebound in price from my 1st June purchase level.
Hopefully the prospects for the business is at the start of an improving trend.
Expect Marstons share price to rally, looking at a big rise from here.
RESULTS FOR THE 26 WEEKS ENDED 1 APRIL 2023 =
H1 like-for-like sales up 10.7% vs last year
Increase in pub operating profit: £43.1 million (H1 FY2022: £39.9 million
Director Buys = 253,701 Shares bought by Directors over the past few weeks!
36,703, 89,980, 34,000, 34,767, 28,992, 29,259
Sales of Pubs = 3 to Youngs for direct injection of cash.
Sector news = Wetherspoon (J.D) (JDW) have improve sales =
Compared to FY22, like-for-like sales increased by 11.5% in the fourth quarter to date and by 12.9% YTD.
Https://pubandbar.com/story.php?c=green&s=2023-07-12-youngs-buys-three-marstons-sites
Reduces the debt and with the update from Wetherspoons parent today it bodes well for those buying at this level.
Uncle D - Last updates from Mars said from memory sales were up 10% on a 17% increase from the year before. They also reported that the majority of their sales came in the 2nd half when the weather improves. i.e. Now. So very similar to Wethers figs on growth for the sector. They also said their gearing of costs was biased towards the 1st half and so the 2nd half will have a cleaner run. So you may want to read what was said from the official site, but generally it seems the sector is recovering and we should expect some good results here for Mars very soon. Fingers crossed for those willing to invest in a recovering sector post pandemic.
Good sales for JDW does not necessarily mean same for MARS, might be a slight crossover gain here but other beer groups are proving they are definitely in the driving seat.
Wetherspoons further supporting that view today up 9%..this is due a re rate soon
Reported that spending on pubs well up......MARS a big winner due to the sun .Gardens will have been packed. News soon.Bargain at this price.Rerate called for....
Agree & fingers crossed that the results will bring an uplift this year as the Directors are pointing towards wanting sales growth.
New good news would be nice SC, but they had a Trading update around the same time last year..
I see Marson have announced they will be issuing a trading update statement on 26th July (just after all the directors have been buying shares?). This is apparently for the 42 weeks trading up until 22nd July 2023. Appears interesting for an odd period but a period that by tradition brings in strong warmer weather sales? Unless there is something else they want to tell us? DYOR and GLA.
Encouraging start to the new month only up just over a penny but signs are there that these shares are going to take off again, always a better second 6 months so positioned to show that once again maybe ambitious but can see these reaching 35p by the end of the week...
Erhh Yes it seems some do not read what comments are said by the senior management either - who said that for Marston the sales figures are always better for the 2nd half when the weather improves. However they were still up on last year over winter in any event.
The only agenda here is for those who want a lower entry point hence the negativity. However this actually helps me too as I can buy some more. When an NPV has bene uplifted one would be mad to sell!!
Lejib
Spot on.
A perfect observation !
If people post on here news is much better than history, sadly some regurgitate history pretending it is news, presumably for their own agenda ?
Agreed, but those figures were priced in for 1.5 months - the SP actually tanked on the day they were published and kept going down for the next few days. It has barely recovered since then.
That suggests that the market expected better.
The numbers don't look that bad considering all the negative factors, hopefully we can get back to the 40-50s within a couple of months.
NPV per share upgraded from 71p to 98p a share. See link to the official Marston site for official a/c :-
www.marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/financials/2023/interim-results-presentation.pdf
Oh look, the share price is being manipulated upwards!
Agreed Directors have bought under stock market rules and at the first opportunity after the official results release. It would have been against the rules to have done so within the set periods (from memory 28 days) before and after.
They know, as we all do what the official accountants audited reports have said with the share price NPV being calculated at 96p. So this share is a bargain per audited / released accounts and highly likely to raise interest from Worldwide investors and Comps. GLA.
1- They don't look token. They are of the scale of several £10k for some of the individuals concerned.
2- High visibility: it's probably to reassure the market, but that also means that a placing (my personal concern) to reduce the debt is much less likely now. Otherwise, that would destroy the credibility of the company.
3- (More speculative) The business is still doing fine, if not even better, and all those directors have been waiting for a window when they can buy before a closed period start.
Don't agree. Look at other company's in the sector. How many are at or just above historic lows?
Giant.... you may be a trader looking for a quick buck, the fact remains, scepticism does exist amongst seasoned/experienced investors who would be licking their lips too achieve a 200-300% increase.
A Asset-stripper would see the enormous potential here, if the figures ( assets and liablities) are to be relied upon.
The question remains, if as you assert the SP is at the bottom, are VC's not plunging in?
I would say MMs have little choice but to take this up. It's in oversold territory and any positivity in the upcoming trading update in July could send this to around 50p in no time.
There's no reason to believe the market is skeptical about the nav. You're the one making that connection. A low share price isn't evidence of skeptism around the company's figures. It isn't evidence of anything. Many shares are currently at or near historical lows right now. And it's due mainly to the general climate - emerging from covid, inflation, interest rates, the war in Ukraine etc.
Clearly the Market is sceptical about the NAV. There are many Venture Capitalists who would jump at a potential doubling even trebling of their investment.
The question is why are they not taking this opportunity ?
There is a raft of reasons. Can the estate valuation be relied upon? Remember prior to Covid, the BOD conducted it's own in-house valuation which subsequently had to be downgraded. Last year saw, for the first time, external valuation of 1/3 of the estate. A realistic guide to valuation will be shown when the draft of PUBs with Christie's, are sold.
Any valuation regarding the 40% share of CMBC is academic as there is only one buyer. Carlsberg call the shots!!
Backs up my expectations that next months trading update will be a positive one.
Nav = total assets - total liabilities
Nav per share is 96p
Shares in issue = 660,400,000
Shares in issue X nav per share = £634m NAV
Put another way, total assets is around £634m more than total debt. And yet market cap is just £180m
Nav is around 3.5 times greater than market cap