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Nav per share (NPS) = total assets - total liabilities ÷ number of shares in issue
According to the company, that's 98p a share
Unless their figures are incorrect, then 29p a share is hugely undervalued.
The current price is about as low as it got during the height of covid, before the vaccines were even available. I don't personally think the price should be anywhere near that level in the here and now - covid is behind us, social distancing measures are no longer a legal requirement, the pubs are full, the weather is perfect for beer gardens, parties and barbeques...
And then if you think back to the announcement of the Carlsberg deal, I remember the share price on the morning of the announcement was sat at around 33p. Suddenly it went berserk - and at first, nobody knew what the hell was happening. It hit 50p in minutes, then came the RNS and it hit 70p shortly after. Fast forward to today and it's like the market has forgotten that partnership even exists? Over half the pub estate is freehold, apart from their 1000+ pubs, their beers are sold all over the world in supermarkets including the major UK retailers such as Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons.
The fact is, sometimes Mr Market gets it wrong and presents rare opportunities.
The basic problem with the SP, investors do not trust the Valuation. Those who have followed the financial history will know any company renegeing on loan repayments are at the mercy of Lenders, The latest waiver agreement(31st March) has IMO, put the company in a arm lock. Loans are now subject to floating rates, which as the market knows are increasing. The increase in proposed asset sales to £60million, should alert investors. I suggest lenders are putting the thrumb screws on and want some hefty reductions of Loans.
Company's will only give news in a rosy fashion until they have No choice.
It should be obvious, once you dig down and use a little vision, why are investors not filling their boots at such a heavily discounted value?
Agreed BC, no info as to how many have actually been sold and seems over 120 are planned to go.
Yes, with m&b up nearly up 2.5 % today and this sliding into “basket case” price range, mr market is not convinced from this CEO’s comments either..
Wolf
Thanks for this, but unless I am missing it he does not say how many pubs have actually been sold & at what prices ?
He says his strategy is proceeding well, but that is a very general statement and not specific to sales of properties.
I guess we must wait for the next accounts to see, but if the sales have not been going well I hope they will acknowledge that in their nav.
Certainly Mr Market seems to be ahead of the game here.
Hi BC, This report in the Express &Star dated 17th May, is the only recentish info I've seen on their progress, and it seems more pubs sales will follow :
Chief executive Andrew Andrea said more than 60 pubs across the country were likely to be sold.
They are on top of the 61 pubs already being sold off by the Wolverhampton-based group that were revealed in March. Those include the unique Crooked House pub between Dudley and Himley and the Bradford Arms at Knockin.
The aim for the sum to be raised from sell-offs has been raised from £15m-20m to £55m- £65m.
In its latest half year results Marston’s revealed revenue has risen compared to the same time last year, with bosses saying “consumers remain as keen as ever to socialise within the Great British pub”.
The group, which currently operates 1,440 pubs and employs 11,000, saw revenue climb to £407 million from £369.7m in the same period last year as it revealed its interim results for the 26 weeks ending April 1. The results meant, on an underlying basis, the firm’s pre-tax loss narrowed to £3.6m from £7.5m last year.
Marston’s said drink sales continue to perform well and food sales were encouraging, demonstrating the trading resilience of the predominantly community pub estate.
Mr Andrea said it was important to continuously review its pubs. Those that are to close in the new announcement have not yet been revealed, but those already earmarked to be sold also include The Spills Meadow in Kent Street, Upper Gornal, The Fountain Inn, Clent and The Garibaldi in Stourbridge, as well as the Blue Pig in Trench and the Red Lion, Madeley.
He said: “The strategy which we outlined 18 months ago is progressing well and generating positive results which is pleasing.
“Consumers remain as keen as ever to celebrate and socialise within the pub.
“The macro environment is becoming increasingly stable and recent evidence suggests that both the cost outlook, and consumer confidence, are steadily improving. The actions we are taking are building a demonstrably better business and Marston’s predominantly community pub estate continues to benefit from changing consumer lifestyles.”
“We continue to deliver upon our clear strategic objective to reduce debt and progress our path to profitability.
“We remain on track to meet our operating profit, cash generation and debt reduction targets for the year.
“We look forward to delivering further positive progress as the year unfolds and remain confident that we have the strategy and the team in place to do so,
Wolf
Do we have any indication as to how the sale of their pubs that they put up for sale some months ago have been going. as
I can't recall any rns re sales achieved but the difference, if any, from book price would give a better indication of the real nav as opposed to the historic nav which is always touted on this board ?
Of course if they have sold zero then that would also be a pointer and a good reason for a fresh appraisal by commercial propertysurveyors on behalf of shareholders.
Summer Trading update last year was 27th July, so guessing a few weeks to wait yet.
When are they due out, I thought it was this week ?
Obviously the Markets do not believe that value, the CEO and Board should resign. Terrible sp performance.
Net asset value (NAV) per share of £0.98 (H1 FY2022: £0.71)
Posted by Fullers I'm afraid.
I'm of the opinion that the remaining 40% in the brewery business alone covers the entire Market Cap here, which begs the question in respect of what the rest of the business is worth!
AIMHO,DYOR,GLA!
Bloomberg report!
Uk growth for April was helped by being driven by a rebound in pubs and bars.
Hopefully with the warmer weather we now have, more can enjoy a cool glass or three! GLA. Enjoy.
Even Marston themselves refer to increased sales when the Sun comes out. Enjoy GLA.
Best comment I've seen on here. It's good to separate out the short and long term and have a strategy for each. I hold MARS and can see many positives for the long term but have made a profit by trading the short term volatility.
If Marstons sold their stake in CMBC how much do you think they'd get for it at present? Thinking of starting to buy back in here.
In the short term the market is always wrong and mispriced otherwise there would be no volatility. In the long term it always corrects itself
This is not a case of "kicking a dog when it is down ", but gentlemen Mars shareholders are in the brown stuff as the share price silently slips below £0.30 !! Reflect on this as you consume your cornflakes this morning and reflect that we could have accepted £1.02 only 12 odd months ago !!! i feel that the directors are now reacting to doing something more positive by attempting to release capital assets, but in a struggling market with predicted higher interest rates, - where are the buyers ?? Why not wait another 6 months and purchase an even more distressed asset? Was the Carlsberg tie up a matter of convenience or desperation and on whose side? All this garbage about younger drinkers prefering Lager may have some truth in it but they aint going to clear a £1.2 B shortfall and the interest that comes with it !!!Gentlemen, hard times are ahead with little succur - i for one are very sad of the situation.
Thunder
Well argue with Mr Market, not me, but Mr M is rarely very wrong.
Thunder agree with you. I hold Whitbread as well and they have been doing very well. If they for instance want to suddenly acquire another 1,000 plus establishments locally to a client base, then what an opportunity. Sad as I say it we will be gone very soon to another opportunist at these silly prices I am sure.
Unless this is a tactical play and then we could go to a Management buy out or venture Cap? We will find out soon I am sure.
Net asset value (NAV) per share of £0.98 (H1 FY2022: £0.71)
· £24.3 million generated from non-core strategic disposals to date at 39% ahead of net book value, with disposals totalling £50-60 million anticipated in FY2023
It is only old fogies like me that like real ale, most young'uns prefer Lager particularly in hotter weather where Marston has seen sales increases. Give them some credit.
Hopefully the weather is turning warmer for a while now, and both pub and off sales at home will do well the partnership mis also showing some ambition and perhaps we can see a higher contribution from the JV to overall group sales.
Read the interim results RNS, the property sold this year was for 39% above book value. They got bid on at 105p not so long ago. I agree it's an option value but downside is limited from here IMO as simply getting too cheap now
Thunder
I think Mr Market looks beyond simple ratios in the accounts, what I suspect that he is asking is, are they really likely to realise book value of assets if put up for sale.
Given the bear market in propco's I also suspect that he knows the answer.
At these levels they have almost become option money.