Member Info for Thunder2040

Well it's coming to fruition now so relax yourself

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dno-eyes-joining-pipeline-deal-export-iraqs-kurdistan-crude-turkey-2026-02-05/

One for Jim

Lol whatever..I'll wager they will be exporting via the pipline at full international prices in less than 6 months

Oman or Kurdistan? I think there will be plenty of upwards movement from Kurdistan exports flowing down the pipe..whenever that will be

I must say current price action is odd..surely news of a restart and possible exports via the pipeline are positive yet the shares go down?

This is going to start moving very soon

Makes no sense why Kurdish oilers are down when there is real talk of exports via pipeline recommencing

Pardon the pun..the general investor fatigue on the matter is noticeable from lack of share price movement but I do believe the dynamic has changed somewhat recently and I'm hopeful a deal with be struck to export via the pipeline and lift this share back to a reasonable valuation

There is always a lag on commodities, you second guess yourself when early on deep value plays..once been through it many times you learn to hold

Https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/traders-are-skeptical-of-iran-timeline-for-strait-of-hormuz-reopening.html

This article outlines that prediction markets now have a lower probability of a deal than at the weekend yet oil is falling.. someone smell a rat?

Is destroyed Iranian mining vessels this week in the straight yet Iran is supposed to be signing and clearing mines not laying new ones?

If you look carefully you can see the cracks..there is a mirage covering the true picture.

Trump apparently looking at lowering gas duty to get at pump price down..why if they expect full flow?

Many clues..

The other angle that I like here is the balance sheet leverage. With inflation likely to kick up significantly that debt is going to get eroded fast in real terms. Approx 80-85% of debt is fixed rate here.

The key to the Iran US deal is how much pressure China exerts. Trump keeps clicking his fingers but again why is Iran inclined to deal now? It's very evident the US wants out, so just holding another month to sweat them would be logical..despite what the headlines say

£4.50

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/us-major-agrees-to-gas-supply-deal-for-lng-development/2-1-1991013

Starting to look very very attractive here, Pantheon at the big boys table and I am certain a major will be running the rule over it..Repsol buying up all around the edge tells you all you need to know...the chairman here could land us a whale of a farm out.

Alaska LNG is the only direct supply to north Asia not required to pass through a chokepoint.

£200m mcap for this is pocket change without even mentioning the liquids

Lots of people talking it down to get an entry

They are a market maker not an investor. Also no bid is coming in at a discount to current SP obviously it will be at a premium if at all

Oilbaron...fyi approx 43% of FY26 production is forecast as liquids the rest is fixed price gas. This being said unhedged oil is a cash machine ATM..also additional gas production should any come online from exploration wells in future will be on the better terms just agreed in concession agreement. Company is trading below book value. The other thing to note is the conversion of 2c to 2p will drive book value higher again

Looks like Neo have won the bid for Deltic....does our board have other targets in mind, we have far too much cash on hand so something has to happen

The bidders can do one tbh, the Deltic opportunity as well is vastly value accretive if they can buy them out and progress Selene with Shell. Need a trading update or results which show to impact of the higher liquids price to get the share price moving

Capricorn Energy's acquisition of Egyptian assets from Shell and Cheiron in 2021 involved an initial cash consideration of $323 million, with additional contingent payments of up to $372 million based on future oil prices and asset performance.

The new concession will allow considerable 2c to be booked as 2p and provides better terms.

The oil price is over $100/barrel

The company has net cash of say $150-200m

The market cap is £214m

There are multiple bidders

And the share price falls.

Sorry.sonething very odd going on here.