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I do wonder you know with so many American funds buying if something is afoot here. Price is approx what they paid for media monks alone...
Snapper name me one bank that provides these guarantees within the MENA region please...exactly you can't, because you know nothing about this. ADNOC is a sovereign wealth dev fund...why would they sniff at paying £100m on a contract worth billions? You need to take a step back and ask yourself whose interest is it in to prevent all the contracts going ahead...you are too narrow minded to see it in my view today
Snapper are you still here parroting everything you read in the news..really need to open your eyes and look forward
Just for those banging on about the bond price, the spread is explaining all that daily movement
I don't think ADNOC would buy on the open market but a lot of things don't make total sense. First issue I had and still have is the shorts were selling a month before the RNS..good guess or leaky...I think PIs probably just out bought the hedge funds last few days, how much more ammo do they have though I would not know..but it's funny they have closed nothing really at 15p..must be aiming for zero..good luck to them, I will take my chances versus that thesis
Would be a logical name in the frame..I just don't think PIs alone could take it up 30% against a short sale of that size, maybe I underestimate the wealth out there
The plot thickens slightly with those short disclosures from yesterday, I think they clearly tried to hammer it but someone else was buying in big which I find very interesting indeed...I do just wonder if we are going to see a TR1 from a institution building a stake for themselves or someone else...there are as a lot said in yesterday's RNS about non controlling interests..that really does intruigue me a lot but have not got enough conviction to guess on here who that could involve tbh
Snapper I am well versed with accounts but the market prices on the future and the worm has turned the last 12 months for the better I am sure of that...this funding issue is a blip and the shorts have literally charged at it head on...it's fallen too far too fast
Maybe I changed his mind and it's been him buying this up past 23p as we spoke lol
Snapper is fine, I respect his views here, but we are worlds apart on where we see this going...nothing wrong with that, I am confident
So you think the accounts are bent? Which parts?
To be cashflow neutral they needed $200m in H2...it's in the interim accounts release...they have said half of this was expected to come as advance payments...if the cash had come in they would have been back to year end 2022 position for net debt...which did not cause a problem. I think part of this is credit conditions have tightened and the H2 legacy overruns spooked banks on doing the guarantees which is logical..but the forward order book is also immensely valuable they gave lots of levers to pull so ramming the share price down from 80p to 15p in a week is frankly scaremongering...it will rerate to somewhere in the middle shortly
You refer to book value of equity which means little in this kinda gig...the liquidity is the main issue here and the contracts are too important not to go ahead for sake of £100m or £200m
You lost faith I get it..but I have not..seen it loads of times..they just need a cash bridge until H2 2024...read the rating agency take on it all...
Snapper you are fixated on this idea..but this will survive and equity will be higher in a year. We must agree to disagree and may the best investor win
Also just my thought but if MENA region want these assets constructing they should get the middle east banks to step in and back them...it's in their national interest..which is why a deal to sort this will get done, some like snapper underestimate how valuable the petrofac skillset is
The exit of shorts is a painful process but we will find out shortly who has started to buy back
It's a consulting and engineering firm you idiot, you don't have the staff and intellectual property on the balance sheet do you
Petrofac has won too much work...so it's worth a quarter of what it was with less work on the books lol..makes completely no sense this one
Go look at the EBITDA of asset solutions and IES... On 5x or 10x multiples that is plenty enough value snapper..