Member Info for Thunder2040

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-18/iran-latest?cursorId=69BBFDB849F40075

Gas repairs impacting 17% of Qatar production to take 3-5years.

Jadestone has huge undeveloped gas assets sat in Asia. The FDP plan has been approved and the market has hardly even twigged. Granted the Gas sales agreement will probably be fixed price but demand for gas and gas dev in SE Asia is going to massively increase, the share price is simply not reflective of this yet. Patience required.

This will proceed to double and it will probably do so a bit slower than you'd expect- a few months I would guess. Very similar situation to Seascape but the assets are just not fundamentally mispriced now excluding current oil and gas prices.

Obviously would prefer there to be peace. I think JSE on this gas news should re rate regardless of the current situation developing with the oil and gas prices.

Great news, I really can't fathom the share price being here considering way back it was 60p plus with nothing like the assets production or otherwise

Based on last trading update if they have exceeded £75m EBITDA and net debt is anticaped at 1.1x and below £100m we could logically estimate perhaps EBITDA £80m and net debt circa £90m, that would give Enterprise Value at current map of £140m + £90m = £230m or 2.88x EV/EBITDA. Forward guidance may perhaps see a reduction in forecast EBITDA but likely also lower net debt..I said before it's clearly net cash generative now with amortisation accounting for much of the non opex. It's crazy low priced so hoping for a double from here. All just my opinion of course. DYOR

GSA will lose control of this soon I am fairly sure of it, I think the short thesis at this valuation doesn't stack up, the debt is 1.1x EBITDA, almost underleveraged

Fuel is hedged, interest rates are fixed and the public will use public transport to escape the rising cost of petrol or even to offset other costs..yet the shorts are bashing away because they smell fear. I honestly think it's high time they banned it tbh, I feel like it's more based on manipulation than short thesis on stocks. Looking at the short tracker for the UK market it's a total mess, loads of decent companies being attacked

Filtered, clearly not a serious investor, why would 2 weeks matter to a normal investor investing over a 1-2 year plus horizon? Secondly if you don't hold shares why on earth are you here posting. I've read the board here and there are some knowledgeable posters but also many fools

Exactly where is the panic over at first group if this sector is so badly affected? Lol. The shorts are all over this because of the leverage but once German rail and we drive profitability is sorted the debt is more than fully serviceable. The new management understand that they need to grow profit and reduce the net debt ratio that way...I'm fully confident that is happening, so sit back and ignore this noise currently

I'm afraid some posts on here seem a bit daft...high oil prices will drive higher public transportation usage across the board that is a fact, arbitrarily referencing Dubai flyers who use a coach to get to the airport as though that's going to break a company is frankly ridiculous..I don't think the Dubai crowd use national express somehow either.

Lol ok so fixed interest rates and hedged oil don't matter and neither do passenger numbers...I see. Thanks

Are their interest rates not fixed though? At pretty good long term rates too...

I believe fuel is hedged for 18 months here. I also believe higher oil prices drives higher public transport usage..so again, this should be rising not falling at the moment

Thanks. Also high oil prices are good for public transport I don't think the market has cottoned on to this yet here

Are mobico going to get compensated for historical losses on the German contracts does anyone know?

Market just in show me mode, that's fine, so you in a week or two ;)

You pays your money you takes your chance... Vietnam news totally off some people's radar too apparently

Smoke and mirrors across the news this morning, fact remains, 20million barrels a day is off the market..those that have been soothed by the "it's all under control" headlines this morning will soon enough realise it's not, just need more time, and in the meantime the big players sneak out the back door

I'd be very careful about analyst's and media outlets talking their own book, there is a clear effort this morning to play it all down and they have done a great job to get the oil price back in its box so far, but words are not enough in the end, so let's continue to the point where refineries in Asia want to buy physical oil at spot and there is no supply lol. Unless they have a magic wand they are in trouble with oil prices and I expect big banks and ii's are quietly shifting positions accordingly as we speak

Lol going red. As you say, complete denial of what's happening