Member Info for Thunder2040

There is always a lag on commodities, you second guess yourself when early on deep value plays..once been through it many times you learn to hold

Https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/traders-are-skeptical-of-iran-timeline-for-strait-of-hormuz-reopening.html

This article outlines that prediction markets now have a lower probability of a deal than at the weekend yet oil is falling.. someone smell a rat?

Is destroyed Iranian mining vessels this week in the straight yet Iran is supposed to be signing and clearing mines not laying new ones?

If you look carefully you can see the cracks..there is a mirage covering the true picture.

Trump apparently looking at lowering gas duty to get at pump price down..why if they expect full flow?

Many clues..

The other angle that I like here is the balance sheet leverage. With inflation likely to kick up significantly that debt is going to get eroded fast in real terms. Approx 80-85% of debt is fixed rate here.

The key to the Iran US deal is how much pressure China exerts. Trump keeps clicking his fingers but again why is Iran inclined to deal now? It's very evident the US wants out, so just holding another month to sweat them would be logical..despite what the headlines say

£4.50

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/lng/us-major-agrees-to-gas-supply-deal-for-lng-development/2-1-1991013

Starting to look very very attractive here, Pantheon at the big boys table and I am certain a major will be running the rule over it..Repsol buying up all around the edge tells you all you need to know...the chairman here could land us a whale of a farm out.

Alaska LNG is the only direct supply to north Asia not required to pass through a chokepoint.

£200m mcap for this is pocket change without even mentioning the liquids

Lots of people talking it down to get an entry

They are a market maker not an investor. Also no bid is coming in at a discount to current SP obviously it will be at a premium if at all

Oilbaron...fyi approx 43% of FY26 production is forecast as liquids the rest is fixed price gas. This being said unhedged oil is a cash machine ATM..also additional gas production should any come online from exploration wells in future will be on the better terms just agreed in concession agreement. Company is trading below book value. The other thing to note is the conversion of 2c to 2p will drive book value higher again

Looks like Neo have won the bid for Deltic....does our board have other targets in mind, we have far too much cash on hand so something has to happen

The bidders can do one tbh, the Deltic opportunity as well is vastly value accretive if they can buy them out and progress Selene with Shell. Need a trading update or results which show to impact of the higher liquids price to get the share price moving

Capricorn Energy's acquisition of Egyptian assets from Shell and Cheiron in 2021 involved an initial cash consideration of $323 million, with additional contingent payments of up to $372 million based on future oil prices and asset performance.

The new concession will allow considerable 2c to be booked as 2p and provides better terms.

The oil price is over $100/barrel

The company has net cash of say $150-200m

The market cap is £214m

There are multiple bidders

And the share price falls.

Sorry.sonething very odd going on here.

They always talk a good game and then drag it out..seen it many times with middle Eastern suitors...tbh id have told them to go jump by now and just focus on the business as usual, it will make a handsome return from that without the takeover

Its in an RNS PUSU deadline was extended by a month

Deadline is 5pm tomorrow not Friday

I don't think they can afford us

Oil Baron the receivable was already in net assets, so I dont quite agree with your calc however we both agree this price is nuts

Net cash surely now approaching circa $180-200m with news today of the full receivable receipt..this share is so under priced it's laughable

Really anyone thinking of investing needs to understand that it's 8.5% of WNEL 25% now not 8.5% of the project...it's a key detail overlooked

Price has disconnected from oil last week or so, I think a lot of tactical positioning linked to bids. Frankly if no bid emerges it's poor form..approaching without funding seems a bit amatuer..and you can't discount them just wanting a look at the books if that was the case. Given the cash on hand this is still way undervalued imo