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Should add, the NAV valuation is due in April...I don't see how this trading update implies anything close to an 80% impairment...this is trading around a 5th of book value...liquidity issue resolved and this doubles or trebles via orderly sale and wind down IMO
I think the issue longer term is freecashflow..as how much capex was spent to drill the well from which oil is being sold at $25usd and how much more is left before more capex? I think they swapped margin for volume after seeing the negative reaction last update...let's see if the masses approve shortly
Steady as she goes, underlying performance is fine..it's the fund level of liquidity which is poor and dragged this down.
I calc that the fund has approx 3.5x EV/EBITDA with Arqiva interest payments to come down materially in 2024 improving this..also new contracts at Arqiva and Verne growing at a 33% rate...it looks ok to me. CEO of subsea cable inv leaving not ideal but being sold and far less material to the fund. Cash of £14m is tight...needs to last until Verne sale or a smaller co. Can be sold..
I would say worth 30p now, 50p on sale of Verne approval/completion inline with Barclays SP target issued in Feb 24.
Does anyone know what date results are here?
I don't actually rule out getting about 80% of current NAV here in the long run
Also this AI trend is going to lead to huge demand for data centres...the price they are selling Verne for is probably on the low side but I think with data storage prices going up surely the earn out is quite achievable
Don't really see why it's dropped from 28p now
I mean the cash is half the MCAP approx, the owed amounts if received would take the cash to the MCAP so how much risk is there really if bankruptcy given local sales cover costs? I don't get why shorts are desperate to sell this....it's a waiting game
Just incessant selling here...for what? Yawn. Iraq don't want to ever open the pipeline but will run out of cash and water.
Management have screwed this company up badly...gonna be tin hats today
Someone loves selling this down on up days of late...assume for Genel it's arbitration day moves
Genuine question...why is someone selling this so hard right when a deal could be in sight, like what are those shorts thinking?
Well the most positive really is that they picked GKP, I mean that is better than a broker buy note IMO..as someone else touched on...the water situation looks to be forcing their hand, just get it open now FFS
News story that Carlyle are potential by bidders too...I must say it's taken me by surprise this
I mean now it's just pot luck at what price they bid for them..could be good, could be bad, but any placing at current price would not seem like good value
I don't like that has just happened tbh
They said ripe for the bid...how did they know dunkerton was bidding, they also bought before the RNS...and we wonder why UK market is compared to a casino...it's stacked
So you are telling me they bought in, published a comment in press about a bid, price doubles and they sell for a profit...anyone else think that is a bit dodgy?
I mean this is the game, the never ending crumbs of encouragement...that go nowhere... ridiculous really
If the UK government pushes north sea oilers into liquidation with these taxes, who pays the decommissioning liability?