The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
'at any rate, the switch to lower-risk customers may have informed the recent decision by the prudential regulation authority to reduce the group's total capital requirement by more than a third, from 18.3 to 11.9 per cent, a development which management believes “will support the group's focus on organic loan book growth”.
so how exactly could the fca or pra lower the capital requirements based on lower risk lending and then uphold an affordability complaints? haha it's ridiculous but as i said the board have gone of half ****ed in a rushed off rns and wiped out 60% of mcap by not fully explaining things..and now any short knows there is 2 weeks free hit until results and clarification
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/97XH/vanquis-banking-group-plc/company-page
Bond is trading ok, I mean look at petrofacs bond price for real distress...this is a game now, board played it's hand terribly imo
60% down and silence from the board now for next two weeks, shorts take it down and then back up before results...predictable
Equity here is worth some £600m at last check, business is profitable...if the market insists on smashing it to pieces just sell the loan book, wind up and return cash to shareholders much like the rest of the uk market
Some articles in the press are incorrectly saying the complaints are about car finance here...and as it clearly states in the RNS they relate to credit cards...so I think something needs to be said about this by the company, just tell the market the % of claims that relate to credit cards and the % that are successful and stop this ridiculous matter escalating any further..management are fools if they think it was a good idea to go half baked on detail in a rushed off RNS just before results
£60m revision to FY 24 profit estimates but mcap reduced by over £150m...I guess this takes account of some risk but still feel oversold, file it away time and come back in a few years
Needs an RNS now, else people are just going to get scared out of holding these based on uncertainty and media lies
Now trading at less than 2 times the now withdrawn earnings guidance of £75m..will still make a profit of £20m this year, and then for the following year potentially lift off...as usual UK market hammers things with the short term view
Your assumption increased net debt but factored in no additional loan assets ...implies they lost circa £400m to reduce the equity that much...I think that isn't the case unless they took material impairments no?!
Lol what part of - they have minimal car loans - don't you get?
Well car loans is a small % of their business so perhaps you can make a case for this being tarred with an incorrect brush!
On the back of 33% revenue growth unlikely, as it would get snapped up by someone else, they are already getting it too cheaply
Does give me Amigo loans flashbacks...not sure I would grab the falling knife here
Https://www.economist.com/business/2023/12/20/big-tech-and-geopolitics-are-reshaping-the-internets-plumbing
These assets are in high demand, I see low risk in divesting at decent prices make no mistakes,this is value at its deepest and truth will out soon
There is not a high risk of bankruptcy in my view...I think it depends of 2 things, if you think the Verne sale completes and if you think Arquiva isn't a basket case (which I think it is far from)..I think the biggest thing weighing on it is the delisting, seen that many times, and I think it was premature to mention that before Verne even completed
Don't think it's a shorter..there is no rationale for doing that, if they remain short until delisting they would effectively lock in their eventual loss..more likely a fund without the patience to see this through, which is what is wrong with investing today ..no patience, ignoring deep value and fundamentals...really the mind boggles at who manages people money these days
Fairly pathetic end to the week there with heavy selling all day...love to know which plonker is dumping this before it likely doubkes
I think they are likely to show their hand after Verne completes if they don't want it...else they have 3 weeks tops if they want Verne for themselves...of course perhaps with not so many investments left a takeover of all would be unlikely, but if there is no liquidity constraints why eould they accept any lowball in Arquiva...I think people misunderstanding the way that investment is structured tbh
My list of catalysts:
-completion of Verne
-NAV calc
-results
-smaller investment disposal news
-t/o bid
-TR1 notification of whoever is selling now to say they stopped lol
I might vote against the wind down as I don't really want a delisting tbh, would rather it got taken out which I think is realistic given how cheap it is
I should have said sit tight, I am invested, just not playing this game with whoever is dumping...why do that just a few weeks before Verne completion.. madness