Member Info for Thunder2040

Sautrade... what earnings, you'd be there a while saving up whilst others streak ahead. Price action so far confirms this is a speculative bubble but each will read it differently

If price stays up over 40p the board have raised at a far too low price.

Further money will be required for build out and expansion, so more dilution likely and now a block on takeover.

Awful from the board imo, but was still a good trade from 5p

Https://www.hedgeweek.com/ricky-sandler-to-wind-down-eminence-capital-after-nearly-three-decades/

It's a no brainer tbh, they are a distressed company with a decent north sea gas asset that is ready to be taken forward...unusual that the potential aquirer, in this case Capricorn amongst others is also subject of a potential bid itself. If they got Deltic for £10m or so it would be highly value accretive especially with tax losses in UK

Oil up nearly 6% and this down over 2% on the day..go figure.

Who'd have thought the only thing not to buy in an oil supply crises is oil producers...way I read current market is two ways 1) way too much liquidity and excess cash..still 2) detachment from economic reality is extreme now... So it continues. I still maintain this will return a solid amount over next few months via takeover or otherwise

It's undervalued regardless of a bid so if it's not taken out tomorrow holding will yield probably even higher return yet over a slightly longer time horizon IMO

Listening to the full year results presentation I detected a bit of resignation in the tone of management as though they know it's going to be sold soon..just a hunch but the put up or shut up deadline is close of market on 8th April, I'd say offer of £4 or so may get it done...4 trading days left before that deadline

So Cairn Energy has risen again..looking at the net cash and value on offer here I have taken a position...throw in the takeover action and rising oil prices I like the set up a lot

Enquest 9%

Tullow 10.25%

Petrotal 12%

Jadestone 12%

I guess if interest rates are about to take off better to get it done fast..but also encouraging that this could also see Vietnam fastracked now. Gas Sales Agreement incoming I say

Well yeah if they are never to be refilled perhaps they are correct..I am very skeptical about what's going on though pricing wise

On oil prices...takes about 20 days to sail over to East Asia from ME...so the ships that set sail before the straits of Hormuz closed will have arrived and unloaded in Asian refineries now, so unless Trump can teleport full tankers of crude across to the Asian market instantly they are not receiving middle east oil for 3 weeks at least even if full capacity were restarted and traffic began traversing the straits today. The oil futures market is acting completely irrationally just imo and some people on the news saying it will drop back to pre war prices in an instance..if it does I have to worry what on earth futures markets are actually representing

All this aside...the Vietnam development is fixed priced gas, materially value accretive and moving at pace, yet has not been factored into the current share price by the market here at all it seems...

It's all rather illogical ...unless of course my read on things is way off.

What the share price reaction here tells me is Vietnam is not priced in at all still imo

Convenient how the 5 day talks now between Iran and US will last for a full weeks trading on oil and stocks..haha how to talk down the price of oil

..an absolute total shareholder return metric over the 2026-2028 period, weighted at 80%.

No mention of what that return is which is not good form but if it's high enough I don't have a problem with them getting their shares..but note to company, publishing the performance condition would build trust

All the majors are out looking for offshore discoveries for that reason. For Jadestone I'm not expert of what grades we produce but I know some fields sell oil at a premium to Brent so we should be swept along on that wave some what. I have slightly underestimated the markets mood to jadestone currently compared to how it once was, seems like good bereft of trust. If that FID had been announced in north sea for similar size entity it would have gone flying. I will trust that the board can keep this all together and deliver a farm out to get me the double here it deserves.

Agreed Raxfactor

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asian-Refiners-Pay-Record-Premiums-for-Non-Middle-East-Crude.html

A case in point, the paper market for most commodities is a total mirage

I still can't really understand how the FID has not moved this more.

The Vietnam farm out needs to be a quick and efficient process for all those concerned, but yeah, it's a great bet on a double now, the Vietnam deal will be ever more important now gas prices and supply are in the spotlight..I think any farm out should be concluded this year

With things now starting to move rapidly, I expect the Vietnam GSA (which we were told was at advanced stage) could be announced soon too, expect even ahead of the Q2 farm out discussion