noix we agree on most, any negotiation depends on the skill of the parties involved and the strength of what they have to offer..
I look at it this way, JOG have the asset and need a Partner. Equinor have the where withall.
If JOG want a free carry there will be some hard bargaining.
As always time will tell.
noix the existing agreement P2170 ( Verbier) remains in tact on the terms previously in place, unless of course primarily, Equinor, who will likely drag along Cieco, decide to review the undertaking in view of the Option on Buchan. The GBA as a whole is contiguous to Verbier, Cortina etc.
Clearly funding will be required to bring the Greater Buchan Area back on stream. It has been suggested, here, in return for the Capital Funding requirement from Equinor and Cieco, shares proportionate to those already in place (P2170) could be agreed. In so doing would relieve JOG as operator of any Funding up to first oil.
This scenario has been suggested, and so far as known is not rejected.
In so far as 21/2a , Glenn, which as you correctly state is awarded 100% to JOG, however it is known the proximity of this LIcence will rely on the Hub Infrastructure to be completed in Buchan. It is highly probable Equinor will negotiate hard to get 21/2a included in any GBA agreement.
Clearly there is a lot of negotiating to occur and any number of outcomes. The one proposed seems feasible as it relieves JOG of most if not all of the Funding requirement to get GBA up and running.
The values produced by Arden support the outcome suggested.
As a LTH the spectre of £10, £20 a share is mind boggling, however for balance it should be remembered the award of the Buchan Licence, even though a game changer, does require collaboration with Equinor or a another, should they not accept the Option ( unlikely). On the face of it the option gives Equinor 50% of the Licence Production. It will not be known, until negotiations with Equinor are agreed, within 2 months, what contribution each party will put into the project.
Add in the 3rd partner, Cieco who have a 12% interest in P2170 and unless the Partnership Agreement says otherwise it is reasonable to believe they will be part of the Greater Buchan production facility. The ongoing relationship between Equinor, Cieco and JOG have been debated and the % share that currently exists between the partners will embrace the GBA on a basis which leaves JOG not having to find any Funding for infrastructure to bring the Field(s) to production in 2024.
The latest award, Glenn, of 14mmboe, is bound to become part of the integrated infrastructure in the GBA and therefore Equinor and Cieco are likely to expect an agreed share of the compounded production of the GBA on the same terms as previous.
On that basis the projected production, 120mmboe, could be divided in proportion to the P2170 agreement, 70%, 18% and 12% ( Equinor,JOG and Cieco)
If this is how the Option agreement works out JOG would have 18% of 120mmboe or 21.6mmboe, and on present values and known reserves, gives @ $7 = $152m.( £124.6m). 566p/share.
Higher values could be achieved, there are many variables and unknowns, so who knows £10 could be on the horizon, but don't spend the money yet. AIMO
ajax read the recent posts on the partnership possibilities, not forgetting Cieco. The consensus seems to agree in exchange for funding costs, Equinor will acquire more than 50% and Cieco 12%. In other words roughly the same shareholding that exists on the Verbier Licence. ( 70%, 12% & 18%). The view being this would relieve JOG of any serious Funding requirement.
As always the detail will lie in the Option Take-up due within 2 months.
Every bit helps. As debated a few days ago JOG's Partners are likely to be part of the action, in exchange for Infrastructure Funding. It was projected Equinor and Cieco will receive a share of these awarded assets on the same basis as P2170 (70% and 12%), leaving JOG with 18% and little or No cost.
On the latest award this gives JOG 18% of 120mmb or 22mmb or thereabouts, a very convenient number with 22m Shares in issue. On that basis the SP should be above £5 as a minimum.
The market's reaction will be interesting.
Exploration, thanks for your Wise Counsel and Knowledgeable post.
There is/will be a lot going on within the near future unfortunately the Rascals who infest this board attempt every which way to disrupt.
They can be the source of some amusing relief, one thinks!!!.
Bad I suspect you are correct. If the company has not made significant progress within the next 12 months, the Execs could well be replaced. Michael Spencer is currently sitting on a significant paper loss, cannot see that continuing indefinitely!!!
Dinoken, I was partial to Bishops Finger until I discovered Hobgoblin Gold.
I did look at Shepherds & Neame sometime ago, although a very sound company which values it's employess, I believe it is tightly controlled by the Neame Family. Any change of control and corporate structure could occur. Considering the Brewer has been in existence over 500 years, changes may not come so quick. AIMO.
Not familiar with the NEX Market, so cannot comment on it's operation.
SOB thanks for the info, any predictions on the cost of upgrading/replacing producing infrastructure?
It was stated here, a few weeks ago, a Drill Platform recently commissioned had cost almost $500m. Would a Producing Platform cost anywhere near this figure?
Trent it is probably the Best Beer I have tasted without being too strong. I am yet to find it on Draft and ASDA often have empty shelves, which must say something about it's popularity.
Europe not the wine producer it once was, a great deal comes from Australia, New Zealand, California, South America etc. Our beers will be cheaper in Europe so with all these Tourists the UK's drinks industry could do pretty well. The Hong Kong Investor is certainly not concerned.
Figures were stated in the RNS of 26th Sept. 2016, they were a little different 212 & 300 mmb.
In the current position, as a partner in P2170, they (Cieco) are not openly included in the Option relating to the Buchan Licence. If Cieco are left in the cold, the Equinor/JOG relationship could be interesting!!!
barchid hard to know RF's strategy, having pulled the plug on refurbs etc a few weeks ago. Some may think him an Empire Builder and would resist approaches. Wonder if he would advise acceptance of £2.5Bbillion?