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Damn it..... knew I should have topped up at 63p :)
At the time of posting a lot of buys happening - but now a lot of sells :( Thought interest may have been picking up that's all.
What of it?
Smashing the blues this morning, happy days :)
Yes.
Thta's better a bit of a sea of blue buys :)
The average monthly debt is forecast to rise FY23 (part of the presentation on results day) after they paid up the balance of the Early Payment scheme for sub-contractors in July (first month of current FY), there will now be further pressure with the increased interest rates. They will have to perform operationally on a consistent basis year on year turning in £100-150m margins as part of their medium 3-5 year plan to be able to get the average debt level down to a much lower level.
OK cheers - yes like you I have a reasonable holding (in my mind) but have been topping up at these levels, every spare £500 or so! In for the long ride!!
Snoop. I have not seen those forecast recently,but I am less confident now than I was a couple of years ago when they were saying the same thing, if not worse. In my view they have the right people, the right balance of workload and the right forms of contract with some inflation protection. They have improved their margins but unfortunately that gain is likely to be wiped out by interest payments, as the rate rises take effect.
I cant see dividends for a good while yet, so it seem very difficult to put together a stong investment case. I still have a large holding here but currently will not be buying more until we have some calrity over whether the government has a proper plan for the UK or only a 'cunning' one. At least for the bits it can control rather than the wide global issues.
I have a suspicion that Kier may try improve their average month end debt by asking shareholders to put their hands in their pockets (again). Who knows.
Some financial analysts have Kier down as a 45% chance of bankruptcy - is that likely? There's been quite a bit of offloading of volume of shares from what I wouldnt think are private investors. Should I be worried?
these oil tankers take a long time to turn around don't they. Find trouble pretty quickly though.
That was my interpretation too.
Repaying debt well. Timescale: Medium term = 3 years.
I will look to add as and when I can.
My take on these is that it's resonable and the ship is steady and sailing forth, it could be still a bit of a journey though!?
Loads of blue.......... bluemin' great :)
Slow and steady now........
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/09/09/kier-tops-contracts-league-for-wins-in-august/
And for the rolling 12 months in 1st place with more than double that of 2nd.
August is always low volumes across the market. Not a Kier specific issue.
Lots of PI trades I suspect; mainly buys though.
81 trades today, so far, tells you what you need to know about market confidence in this share.
Low volume, money to be made elsewhere.
Yes I think the market remains to be convinced that actual profits are being made, and the sign of a good investment will be the return of dividends, otherwise there's not much point in being invested here. Dont get me wrong, I'm filling my boots at these prices, but the larger stakeholders need to see a return on their investments, to which in the good old days you would receive around 50p per share per annum - a nice little earner. The longer the dividend remains outstanding will be the test here, as there's no real short term gains on the SP, so investment growth needs to be the dividend. The dividend can only be paid when debt is clear, and real profits are realised. The business model used to be generate cashflow through construction on high turnover and low margins and invest or loan that cash to the housing division at cheaper rates than the market borrowing. Now housing gone, and low margins in play, the only added value Kier can claw onto is their reputation and securing of multi-million £ Framework agreements. Profits are the market test. GLA.
There could be no better track record of winning new business but investors / market makers in SP are not convinced the work is profitable it would seem?
Kier has always had plenty of contracts.
It was the great forward looking order book that tempted me in about 4 years ago.
Unfortunately, they need contracts they make a profit on, not the old ones that lost them money.
Hopefully new estimators are doing a better job and building in a decent level of profit nowadays.
Yet more contract wins for Kier.
Kier Places has secured its place on the £600m YORbuild3 Minor Works framework, appointed on all five sub-regional frameworks for Lot 2, which covers new build and refurbishment projects valued between £1m-£4m.
https://www.kier.co.uk/media/news-releases/kier-places-appointed-to-600m-yorbuild3-minor-works-framework/
Kier wins slot on £500m canal and rivers framework (one of only two contractors on the framework)
https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/civils/kier-wins-slot-on-500m-canal-and-rivers-framework-10-08-2022/
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/08/10/kier-pulls-off-contracts-league-double-in-july/