" a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Kier Group recorded negative free cash flow, in total"
"Proffessor Chuggley, I'll mark this one for 'revisit in a week or so', the experts seem pretty concerned that this could overwhelm the NHS in the same way that South Korea had been overwhelmed.
They have warned that nothing is off the table including significant social and economic impacts"
Been nearly a month since I posted that and by goodness, a lot has happened. This has played out pretty much how I predicted, albeit, the situation in the UK may be worse than South Korea, dependent on what measure is used.
What does this mean for Kier? More secure because of the government financial assistance or less secure because the government will want the money back?
At the moment there seems to be an element of novelty, which is driving compliance. Is it coincidence that so far that there are a disproportionate number of celebrities 'self-isolating' compared to roving reporters?
They said I was being doom and gloom when I said a couple of weeks ago that it couldn't be contained. They said I was being doom and gloom when I said the economic and social measures that they would enact would have huge implications. But that said, I very much do hope that you are right!
Lairy, when, not if, when the government decrees that non essential travel is stopped and non essential work is stopped, the mobile society and social networks that you speak of will cease immediately, potentially never to return. A trip to the pub, a walk in the countryside, stopped. Remember, under emergency measures, the government executive of the day get to decide the parameters of what "essential" means. It is very easy to take away liberties that a democracy such as ours enjoy and it will happen very quickly. It will be a very long time, if indeed ever that we get them back.
It is an extraordinary set of measures that the government has point in place. Effectively, the UK has been nationalised. What has happened today has gone way way further that the state intervention that Labour were proposing during the election campaign. The government now owns the means of production and labour and has a tight grip on the social freedoms of individuals. This is Chinese style state intervention in One Nation Tory clothes. What does this mean for shares and equities? Who knows now.
RE: resounding no from mr. market16 Mar 2020 09:15
This share is very close to getting the Metamorphosis84 kiss of death.
Peak of the virus is a few weeks away, at this rate of decrease the SP would be somewhere around the zero pence mark by then. Trying to raise 100m through an RI seems pretty unlikely. So it will be a case of how long before they run out of cash. In contrast to the slow lingering death at Kie, this could unravel pretty quickly now.